Timothy L. O'Brien on the Methodology and Madness of Trump

Few people have as deep and intimate an understanding of who Donald Trump is as a person as Bloomberg Opinion executive editor Timothy L. O'Brien. Not only has O'Brien written an entire biography of the man in his book "TrumpNation: "The Art of Being The Donald," he was even sued by Trump for libel for giving a true account of the scope of the president's financial worth. In due course, Timothy has actually become an astute observer of the Trump brand, peering beyond the fabricated persona to see what really lies beneath. Plus, Al and James discuss just what might happen if things don't go well for Trump in November.

Transcript

[00:00:00] Al Hunt: Hello and welcome to 2020 politics war rum with James Carville with Dan in new Orleans. I'm Al hunt here in Washington. We are proud partners with the sine Institute at American university. We again, have a great show with someone who I consider the foremost expert. On Donald Trump, but first don't forget to subscribe to 2020 file to explore rum on Apple podcast, Spotify, Stitcher, or wherever you listen to podcast.

[00:00:32] James Dan, new Orleans. You're doing okay.

[00:00:34] James Carville: That's pretty good. We've got a lot of right down here. I'll tell you that. Wow.

[00:00:37] Al Hunt: Well, I just hope you don't have the big storm. You don't need that. That's

[00:00:41] James Carville: always showed up. We do not. I repeat, we do not need it or warning.

[00:00:46] Al Hunt: James. I was fortunate. I really mean that for six years to work with Tim O'Brien at Bloomberg, he was the publisher of the editorial page at Bloomberg.

[00:00:55] And it was a great hire when it was made in 2013, I believe he had been a [00:01:00] star reporter and editor for the New York times. It was a path breaking investigations, editor. For Huffington post, but it became even more golden. A few years later, as Tim had written a terrific book about Donald Trump years earlier, he then trounced Trump when the Donald sued him and went to court and no one has more knowledge or better understanding of Donald Trump and Tim O'Brien.

[00:01:22] Tim really is terrific to have you on this program.

[00:01:25] Tim O'Brien: I am thrilled to be here. I'm looking forward to talking to you guys.

[00:01:28] Al Hunt: Great. You know, Trump has had for all of his faults, he's had an almost Houdini likability to escape from peril, bankruptcies, scandals, indictments, impeachment. I'm pretty sure I'm more than pretty sure he's not going to escape from electoral defeat.

[00:01:45] Uh, and do you think he'd realizes that or would any of the sycophants around him be afraid to tell

[00:01:51] Tim O'Brien: him that. Uh, he would never realize it Al because he's too broken, I think emotionally and psychologically to be reflective, you know, as it's [00:02:00] not a, a novel insight to talk about Trump as a profound narcissist and it disables his, his ability to grow and reflect, and he's always surrounded himself.

[00:02:11] With yes, people. So he's, he's never really broke anyone challenging his way of thinking. I think what's really different about this moment. If you think back about these stages of Trump's life, he is probably, he's certainly the most successful con man of the modern era. But he's also one of the luckiest people who's ever lived because he had this first ring of fire surrounding him when he was born into a wealthy family that protected him from the consequences of his own mistakes.

[00:02:41] You know, the rest of us make mistakes throughout our life. We try to learn from them and we grow, but he's never had to do that because he's always been insulated from reality is his father's wealth. Well insulated him from his educational failures. And then from his business failures, then he became a celebrity through [00:03:00] the apprentice and he had this second ring of fire around him, uh, you know, famously, which he recognized in, um, the access Hollywood video.

[00:03:09] When you're a star, they let you do it. Uh, and then. He gets into the white house and he has a third ring of fire, uh, the presidency, which insulates him legally, uh, from the consequences of amoral and unlawful behavior that other people would be checked on. And, and he just, he's going to turn this month.

[00:03:30] I'm 74 years old and, and he's essentially a seven year old grown old, I think what's happened in a moment we're in now, is that the coronavirus pandemic and. Uh, the black lives matters protest, uh, surrounding George Floyd's arrest and death. Um, uh, have really stripped him naked in front of a global audience and shown how in-app he is and all of these things.

[00:03:59] It [00:04:00] insulated him in the past. I think he's going to have a hard time engineering those to insulate him in the present.

[00:04:05] Al Hunt: Tim. He's like a cornered animal now, uh, who always lashes out when you think about it and you know him, what do you believe or what do you fear he might do? And the next couple of months,

[00:04:16] Tim O'Brien: I've always been afraid Al of what he would do with the military.

[00:04:20] I, uh, You know, he's, he, he's never bothered to become a student of the machinery of government or public policy making. Uh, he lacks the intellectual curiosity and the discipline to do that. I think he quickly discovered when he got into the presidency, the most latitude for president were around issues of foreign policy.

[00:04:39] And you started seeing him, uh, you know, do all of this dangerous and innate courting, um, with, with, with. Kim in, in, in North Korea and Putin and Russia. Um, and I worried then that he would use a military strike in Iran or North Korea or elsewhere too, [00:05:00] promote or protect himself. I think we've now discovered.

[00:05:04] In just the last two weeks, he's actually willing to consider sending American troops into the streets to quell a legitimate protest. And I'm worried, I am worried that he will default to that again, in the coming months, if the odds stack up against him. And I'm also worried that if, if the 2020 presidential election is close, Trump is going to contest the results and try to find.

[00:05:31] Uh, some reason not to leave the white house, uh, uh, like an adult and peacefully.

[00:05:37] Al Hunt: Well, I think, I think that's an absolute certainty and that's the reason, uh, that, uh, it, it has to be a, a decisive victory. You wrote the other day, everything you write about Trump. Uh, I devour cause it's also a good year out the other day that you could imagine if Trump does have to leave, but he's going to attempt to buy a media company to compete with Fox.

[00:05:56] Uh, he'll tourist stadiums. He'll offer the [00:06:00] faithful, another Elmer gantry, like a revival, and he's going to remain a force in American politics, Darshan darkening, the national dialogue. Uh, is that the way you see him?

[00:06:12] Tim O'Brien: Yeah. You know, he's an attention addict, you know, for as much of a bully as he is. And for as flagrant as he is, he's, he's deeply insecure and that's one of the reasons he loves.

[00:06:25] Crowds. It's one of the reasons he loves being center stage. He is an attention addict. Um, and that's why he has a love, hate relationship with the media. He will immediately on one hand blast reporters from being critical of him, but he can't do without their attention. And I, uh, You know, I think they were considering looking at media enterprises, uh, prior to the election.

[00:06:50] And, and I wouldn't be surprised if they looked at a company like Sinclair and they being Jared and his father in law and [00:07:00] try to take it over as a competitor. Of Fox and just continue to promote, um, his relationship with, uh, you know, older, white males, Zell, zealous, right? Wingers, um, disaffected people of all stripes displaced.

[00:07:20] Rolling in industrial workers. Um, and, and, and he thrives on that. And I, and I think that speech he gave in front of st. John's church using the Bible as a prop was as much about solidifying his relationship to his base as anything else.

[00:07:37] James Carville: So Tim, if the electrical health today, he would be humiliated. Right.

[00:07:43] Okay. Yep. No doubt about that and likely. The three things could happen. It stays where it is. He gets really bitten bad. It gets better for him, or [00:08:00] it could even get worse. So let's assume he gets wiped out. Double digit popular vote margin, 56 democratic senators, 15 new democratic house members, state legislature, the Republican party basically itself.

[00:08:16] Right back. Okay. What is given his state of mind and what you know about him? What do you think he's likely to do between November 3rd? In 2020 and January 20th of 2021?

[00:08:36] Tim O'Brien: Um, I think it would be a sort of a blessing on the process if he's wiped out, because it will be harder for him to claim that the election was rigged or the out the outcome was rigged.

[00:08:48] He will certainly say that. Mmm. If it's close, uh, he will say it not be able to get away from it. Away way with it, if it's a broad margin. I, yeah. I mean the, [00:09:00] you know, the Republican party as Cowtown and aqueous to this man in jaw dropping ways for so long now that I'm hard pressed to say they wouldn't acquiesce to him trying to have permanent residence in the white house.

[00:09:14] Um, Uh, huh. But, but I just think it would be really hard for them to do that in a landslide. I don't see them doing that,

[00:09:24] James Carville: but he, but he do something really stupid. Given his state of mind, the man is under it, please. Great. Not the most stable person to start with.

[00:09:33] Tim O'Brien: Well, I mean, I think he's going to have a meltdown and he's going to lash out and he's going to say the results.

[00:09:37] Aren't legitimate. I think that's a given. I think the question is how do the, you know, how does this, the machinery of government in the parties? Uh, escort him out the door. If that happens, that's the crisis. And you know, there's been a lot of stuff. Speculation, Alan, I spoke about this recently. I don't put a lot of credibility into it.

[00:09:57] It's just too conspiratorial by my lights. [00:10:00] But this idea that, you know, he would reside in favor of Mike pants. So Pence could then pardon him. So he wouldn't face any legal consequences after he leaves office. I find that. Totally, um, you know, Manchurian candidate kind of stuff. But, um, I do think he's thinking right now about how to engineer an exit.

[00:10:20] Should he lose where he ends up not being in the crosshairs of a number of law enforcement bodies that are still looking at him and. Leaving where he can say it wasn't about him. He didn't lose the race because of what he did. It was because of other things. And those are, I think the two things spinning in his mind right now,

[00:10:39] James Carville: but right now, right.

[00:10:43] Hmm. He's gonna lose back. It's pretty bad. You can't, you can't look at what's coming in.  kind of second, anything else? And. You know what I'll talk about later, but you look at them, George, and a number of people that are going out folk. And I mean, [00:11:00] that's literally, the country is in a revolt against him.

[00:11:05] I'm

[00:11:05] Tim O'Brien: sick. He invited her with neck and neck in Ohio who never thought that would happen in Ohio. It looks like he's going to get something in Michigan.

[00:11:13] James Carville: Right. I'm just for a moment when the facts change, I change my mind, but. Right now it's pretty clear.

[00:11:23] Tim O'Brien: Right. But that's right. I mean, here's the thing though.

[00:11:26] It's, it's still, you know, it's five months away. I think that there's still some wild card stuff around Joe Biden, that, that we'll have to see how that plays out. When, when he gets back into a more, uh, visible campaign mode. Um, the Trump people are going to go at him hard, but look, the voters. The voters saved us in the 2018 midterms and the voters made what they made their preferences known in the primaries.

[00:11:52] They are being very practical. They're coming out in force, particularly as you note voters of color. And I think [00:12:00] that weighs very heavily against him. If he,

[00:12:02] James Carville: if he, about what you expected or worse than what you expected.

[00:12:07] Tim O'Brien: Um, so I will I'll I'll, I'll answer that twice. I never thought he'd get elected president.

[00:12:12] I thought he would be the nominee. And I went on the record saying, there's no way this guy's going to get elected. So I am not a Cru, a forecaster here. Yeah. Having said that there is nothing he's done. That surprises me. Um, what's, I am more surprised by how institutions around him and the Republican party have responded to him that that's the piece of it.

[00:12:38] That surprised me the how easily it's he has been able to, um, try to undermine a variety of American institutions and, and how, how utterly decrepit and Mmm. Uh, sort of acquiescent that [00:13:00] the GOP is that that's, that surprised me, but maybe that didn't surprise you guys

[00:13:06] James Carville: because he maintained his popularity and right.

[00:13:11] Yeah. They go and they lose

[00:13:16] Al Hunt: Tim you, uh, when, when he,

[00:13:18] James Carville: he said he

[00:13:19] Al Hunt: James, he sued Tim, uh, because he said that Tim had understated his wealth. Uh, and he got clobbered in, in, in, in court, but Tim is one of the very few people who's ever seen Donald Trump's tax returns. He can't talk about what he saw, but you at least have an idea.

[00:13:36] Um, Tim, uh, he may lose this case and it may be the Manhattan, da investigators. There are going to see his business records and his tax returns. Um, if, if that's the case, then they are probably more recent. Then what you looked at some years ago,

[00:13:52] James Carville: would it be your

[00:13:53] Al Hunt: guests if that could pose new legal problems

[00:13:55] Tim O'Brien: for him?

[00:13:56] Um, actually the ones they want are the ones that I saw years [00:14:00] ago. I actually, I think that, yeah, I've been worried about, you know, when the house, when house ways subpoenaed the, his tax records, they were asking for the most recent six years. And I actually think the most recent six years may not get to the stuff he's the most worried about.

[00:14:16] Um, uh, You know, there's a reputational reasons. He doesn't want us tax returns out. It would show that he doesn't have as much money as he's claimed. You know, he lied for years and years about how wealthy he is. Um, it would shows businesses not as big as it, as he said it, as has said, it is, it would show that he's not a, um, a generous philanthropist.

[00:14:39] He doesn't give away money at all. That would all. That's what concerned him in the past. I think what concerns him in the present is the sources of his income. And, and there's always been this mystery around why he kowtows to foreign leaders, especially foreign leaders in countries where he has business interests.

[00:14:58] And I think if his [00:15:00] tax returns, you know, I. I can't get into a lot of specifics cause of some of the court orders around the tax returns I look at, but the returns would reveal his foreign sources of income, uh, to say that politely and. Um, uh, he doesn't want people to know what the money trail behind him looks like.

[00:15:20] Uh, we know from court papers that one of the big properties he, uh, he was involved with in, in, uh, lower Manhattan, the Trump Soho had tons of money come into it from Eastern Europe. People in that projects at some of it was laundered money, et cetera, et cetera. He's tried for years to do projects on successfully in Russia.

[00:15:41] Uh, so I think he's, I think he's petrified of that specifically. Uh, you know, the Manhattan da is looking at whether or not the, you know, the Trump organization used accounting gimmicks and, and, and other, um, maneuvers to disguise. Pay off money that went to stormy Daniels, [00:16:00] um, um, uh, the porn star that, that who alleges that she had a sexual encounter with Trump.

[00:16:07] Um, I think that, you know, that kind of stuff, if more detail comes out on that, it affects his marriage, but I don't think that he cares about how it affects his reputation, but the money stuff is very real to him.

[00:16:21] Al Hunt: [00:16:21] Let me try one more and then turn over to James. What do you see after the Trump presidency?

[00:16:26] Ivanka Trump, and as we call them Uday and who say Donald and Eric?

[00:16:32] Tim O'Brien: [00:16:32] Um, I think, I think, you know, they're all going to stay in business together. You know, the thing to remember about the trumps is these are all profoundly C minus people. It's, you know, Trump has always gotten away with this idea that he hires the best people and they're all rocket scientists and they're, they're wonderfully good at this and that, and that, and the reality is they run a mom and pop boutique business that is essentially turning Donald Trump into a.

[00:16:58] A human billboard and they just [00:17:00] market his name. It is not complex. He's never been a great deal maker. Uh, and the children, um, you know, Don jr had a very troubled relationship with his father. He left home, uh, after Kali moved out to Colorado, didn't talk to his dad for a couple of years, but the kids have all come back.

[00:17:17] To him as a source of gravity in their lives. And they will all stay in business together. I would highly recommend if you've never seen it to watch a tape of Howard stern asking Don jr. Ivanka and Donald the Potter familias to try to multiply 16 times seven live on camera, and none of them can do it, including the president.

[00:17:39] Um, uh, they're not good at math, but you know, they'll Mark it him. And the most obvious way for them to do that, I would think is an a media company. And I think Jared, you know, used to run the New York observer. He fashioned himself immediate Titan. Yeah. I just think that's where they're going to go.

[00:17:58] James Carville: So yeah, [00:18:00] just wash it.

[00:18:00] What exactly did he Sue you far?

[00:18:03] Tim O'Brien: He, you know, he, uh, so I was at the New York times at the times, James and Anne I'd been covering him episodically. I, you know, I first began covering Donald Trump in, in 1990. I was the research assistant on the first biography of him by an investigative reporter at the village voice named Wayne Barrett.

[00:18:19] And we reported on Trump's political affairs and business affairs and basically then New York and Atlantic city. Um, I wrote a gambling book in the mid 1990s that I interviewed him for. And then in the early two thousands, when I was

[00:18:33] James Carville: a gambling book.

[00:18:35] Tim O'Brien: Yeah. Sort of social history of gambling in America.

[00:18:37] And there was a chapter in there about Atlantic city and, um, and I interviewed Trump for that. Um, and then I'm at the New York times in the early two thousands and he's on his, whatever at that point, say six of nine lives. Um, uh, this guy who had been a punchline for the excesses of the 1980s has re-emerged as the entrepreneurial guru to the [00:19:00] masses, through the apprentice.

[00:19:02] And meanwhile, out in the real world, he was driving his casinos into bankruptcy. Again. So I began covering all that and he began courting me very closely over the course of a couple of years we traveled. Um, he didn't like my coverage, but he kept, you know, invited me to come and speak to him. So I ultimately, uh, wrote a biography of him in 2005 called Trump nation.

[00:19:27] Um, and, uh, there's about. Six pages in the book about how much he is a bullshit of the media over the years, about how much money he has and the simple fact of him inflating as wealth and, and, and manipulating the media's coverage of his wealth, um, got him press coverage and the press coverage got in business deals and that got him banking relationships, and it was all built on sand and.

[00:19:53] You know, the earlier book I'd worked on with, with Wayne bear was a really deep investigative book. The book that I did, Trump [00:20:00] nation tried to place this guy in the American experience. How did this person who is in inept in so many ways, and reptilian has this reptilian ability to survive and others get a toe hold in, casinos and politics and real estate and television and all these other realms.

[00:20:19] Um, He, he felt that the pages that, uh, detailed how he had misrepresented his wealth, uh, damaged his reputation. And he sued me for libel saying that his reputation had been damaged by that. Um, He sued me in 2006. Um, I had the New York times as lawyers on my side. Um, my book publisher Warner books retained Mary Jo white.

[00:20:44] The former us attorney for the Southern district of New York is my attorney. Um, Trump's attorney was Mark , who famously tried to defend him in the early stages of the Muller probe. Um, and, and we just killed them in court. The facts were on my [00:21:00] side. Mmm. Uh, because he sued me, uh, alleging, uh, false information on his finances that gave us access to his banking records, his taxes and other business records.

[00:21:13] Uh, we deposed him for two days in 2007 to eight hour depositions. He tried to get those sealed and our attorneys, uh, essentially attached them to a motion to dismiss the case towards the end of the. Or the litigation and Trump's lawyers freaked out. They didn't want the deposition deposition to become public.

[00:21:34] Okay. The judge said, well, the depositions revealed mr. Trump for who he is, the public should know, and that became a public record. And it's the deposition alone is sort of a Rosetta stone of understanding who Trump is.

[00:21:47] Al Hunt: Hi James. I read, I read part of that deposition. Maybe all of it. And Tim, I think I remember this right.

[00:21:53] At one point, Mary Jo white asked him how much he thought he was worth. And he, the answer [00:22:00] was, it depends on how I feel.

[00:22:01] Tim O'Brien: That's exactly right now. He said my mood the day of the week, how things are going at another point, you know, they were asking him to account for these, these Phantom profits. He was claiming and his golf course business.

[00:22:14] And, uh, they asked him if he kept a ledger. Of, uh, of his finances for the golf course. And he said, no. And they said, well then how do you keep track of these things? And he said, mental projections. And I always loved that when I saw, I think he leads his whole life by using mental projections to get by.

[00:22:31] James Carville: You don't have to, you don't have to be very smart. I have very good lawyer. We're talking about a country used to be a lawyer. You're not very good with them for a very short period of time. Yeah. But if somebody wants something and says, Hey, Jane, let's Sue this guy. That was it. Just so you know, if you Sue this guy, He could Sue you back or, you know, or anything in a civil case, you don't have any, you don't have the right to remain silent.

[00:22:56] You get anything you want and knowing everything he knew, [00:23:00] it was really stupid to Sue you.

[00:23:04] Tim O'Brien: I think, well, that's the key, the key observation there, James is stupid and I'm not being frazzled here. You know, we can not dismiss the extent to which Donald Trump is not a bright man. Um, on the other hand, Mmm. He is a street smart survivor and, um, We're in an era where, you know, I was fortunate.

[00:23:26] I was at the New York times. I had a book publisher with resources. They were willing to get me legal counsel. Um, there's been a real chilling effect in the media, um, uh, around people with deep pockets, being able to kill stories or kill book projects. Simply by the threat of litigation and, um, uh, you know, I'm not the first person he has threatened to Sue I'm one of the few he actually went through and actually did Sue me.

[00:23:56] Um, but he learned this at the feet of Roy [00:24:00] Cohn. Uh, weaponizing the legal system against your business partners, your perceived enemies, the media in order to get what you want.

[00:24:10] James Carville: Right. Right. I mean, I don't want to throw up, I understand threatened to Sue people. I understand sending people letters up to a point.

[00:24:18] I understand filed the suit, but didn't the lawyers tell him it w the thing, what, Hey, they're going to have discovery and these are. Publisher's lawyers and your top lawyers are some of the best lawyers in the city. Why do you keep going through with this?

[00:24:34] Tim O'Brien: Well, first he's alienated prior, you know, to go into the white house.

[00:24:39] He had alienated most. Mmm. Okay. Mmm, well regarded law firms cause he didn't pay his bills. And, and I think some of the lawyers who've connected to him through, uh, through the years have been willing to give him bad advice because they can cash the check and because [00:25:00] their name gets in the newspaper just as readily as he does.

[00:25:02] And so they get. What they consider reputational lift from doing it. So, you know, the other thing is he doesn't listen to anyone's advice. Anyway, James, the only people in the white house that Donald Trump authentically listens to is Jovanka, you know, Jared and Ivanka, um, everyone else. Including everyone in his cabinet falls far down the ladder because he is so self diluted.

[00:25:28] He believes he has natural instincts that make him an extra expert in almost any field. So he just, he doesn't take advice. It doesn't matter what you say

[00:25:36] James Carville: to him. Well, he's pretty stupid. Who is right? You have good lawyers that he brought out a good one part time. He showed you

[00:25:43] Tim O'Brien: a, I mean, I think the lawyer, when he started with me, his lawyer was a very scrappy and well known New York lawyer, as I mentioned, Mark Castaway it's, but I don't know that Mark has had a lot had.

[00:25:54] Much experience with libel lawsuits and, um, they pick the wrong venue for the [00:26:00] lawsuit. They expose their client to the wrong things. Um, uh, you know, Trump's still says to this day, I'm glad I sued Tim O'Brien. I cost them a lot of money. It didn't cost me a cent. And my book publisher, um, had insurance that covered their litigation costs.

[00:26:17] It did cause Trump several million dollars.

[00:26:20] Al Hunt: Kim, this has been fabulous. Let me ask you one more question. You spent a long time with him over the years, and you alluded to that, that a scene at st. John's church last week. Did you know what a devout disciple of the Bible he was? Tim?

[00:26:38] Tim O'Brien: You know, Donald Trump doesn't read books.

[00:26:41] Much less the Bible. Uh, and we know from his actions that he's certainly not a Christian. Um, uh, the only, you know, his father, um, was a devotee of Norman Vincent Peale. Um, uh, the, you know, he's, he goes to a quote unquote church now in [00:27:00] Florida that, that, um, promotes the prosperity gospel. You know, if you get rich in life, you'll be saved and having, um, which I think is not what Jesus said.

[00:27:09] Um, I don't. He has no interest. In the Bible as anything other than a stage prop he can use the court has evangelical base.

[00:27:19] Al Hunt: Well, I would, I, you know, Tim, Tim, O'Brien's the best. Uh, and Tim, you, you have referred to this. If any one out there has not watched Sara Cooper, uh, on Donald Trump, uh, this is, this this'll be a tree.

[00:27:34] Other than reading Jim O'Brien, uh, it's one of the great things you can do to learn about Donald Trump. She's a fantastic imitator using, using Trump's own voice,

[00:27:44] James Carville: but tell him, let me promise you one thing. He's going to get beat bad, really bad.

[00:27:50] Tim O'Brien: Uh I'm you know, I I'm so humbled by the fact that I was wrong in 2016, but I think all the numbers point to that, James.

[00:27:56] And when you look in these swing States, I think he's losing [00:28:00] Arizona, North Carolina, Michigan. Pennsylvania. He came compete. Right. And, uh, and, and, and, and to me, those States collectively spell the death now, but again, I was wrong in 2016

[00:28:16] James Carville: PTSD, the whole democratic party. Yes, totally traumatized. Or, Oh, Eric Trump, part of the United States.

[00:28:25] Cause there's a lot more. Against Trump than just the democratic party under promise you.

[00:28:30] Tim O'Brien: Well, I think, you know, I think, I think you see that in the coalition of people that support Biden it's, it's a. You know, it's a broad coalition of outraged Americans who have good reason to be outraged.

[00:28:41] James Carville: We've got four star generals and 18 year old, African American teenagers in Chicago in the same coalition.

[00:28:49] Tim O'Brien: Okay. Then white women,

[00:28:51] James Carville: right. Neo-cons and if the Ebo whole after November, but we just got to hold it together.

[00:29:08] [00:29:00] Al Hunt: James boy, I'll tell you. There is nobody who knows Donald Trump better than Tim O'Brian. Uh, he just that's him. Uh, he knows, he knows the way he reacts. He knows the people around him. I mean some of the remarks, which aren't as calm as, as Tim said, he's just not very bright. He's, he's the shrewd he's savvy.

[00:29:28] He's like a whorehouse rat, but he's not very bright. And ultimately

[00:29:32] James Carville: I think that catches up to, ya know, he was not deprived,

[00:29:37] Al Hunt: a little bit of politics. Uh, there were a few primaries on Tuesday, uh, not of great import with exception of Georgia, uh, two things down there, and you've been much more optimistic about the Georgia Senate seats and I've been.

[00:29:49] But in one of those Senate seats against incumbent data, the Purdue Democrats were forced into a runoff. Now that's not always bad, but usually runoffs aren't helpful. The front runner, John [00:30:00] OSAF didn't quite get 50%. But I think the bigger story down there was, it was a voting nightmare, long lines machines broke down, particularly in the African American communities.

[00:30:14] This is a pattern in that state with a governor and now the Republican secretary of state. And I think it is a warning shot for what could happen in November.

[00:30:23] James Carville: Yeah. I have a lot of friends with Georgia obviously, and I think the kind of consensus is. It's actually good that this happened because Oh, the attention in the general election was going to be on Georgia voting machines, voting machine placement, ballot access.

[00:30:42] I made it the antidote evidence that was getting, at least on NPR, people were saying, I waited five hours to vote. Then I went out to Alpharetta and there was nobody in line. Well, what I want the Buckhead. And it was, you know, and. Yes. [00:31:00] You know, the, the Democrats and Georgia power that I think that everybody thinks they're going to win the state house.

[00:31:06] They're going to win the house, but the house in the state house. So the volunteers have a lot at stake there, but you know, you can get away with a lot more when, when no one is watching. Everybody is going to be watching. They're going to be teams of journalists down there, scouring everything. The Congress is going to have hearings.

[00:31:29] I mean, they're going to get a lot of attention in this thing. And I think that's a good thing. I actually think what happened yesterday. And of course the only thing that's going to do and it needs people waited. I want to see what the total vote is, but I bet you it's pretty high. And there's a site called Georgia votes and it's pretty, you just Google, WW, Georgia votes.com or whatever.

[00:31:56] And he always statistics, but Georgia is, is now [00:32:00] moved itself into center spot for November, 2000, 2020. And I think that's a good thing. Does that make sense to you?

[00:32:14] Al Hunt: Yeah. Does, um, I think, I think that is a good thing. I think another factor here though, is the whatever further, uh, stimulus rescue, whatever bill we caught there is going to be money or there should be money for the States to facilitate the voting problems.

[00:32:32] They're all going to confront, uh, in November. Now, I don't know if Georgia got that money, if they would spend it well or not, some States would. And, uh, the Republicans know that's necessary and most of them during their Senate, And the only way it's going to be blocked is if Donald Trump says I won't sign any bill that has any election money in it or money for the post office, our friend Fred Wertheimer has been front and center on this.

[00:32:54] Uh, and the Republicans capitulate, it's important to get more money to the States who are, who are [00:33:00] broke right now with this pandemic crisis to help whether it's machines or whether it's mail in voting. Uh, because they don't have the resources right now. So that's a really big issue in the next month.

[00:33:11] James Carville: If I were Trump, I wouldn't give him the resources.

[00:33:15] Al Hunt: Right, right.

[00:33:17] James Carville: Well,

[00:33:18] Al Hunt: I think you're right, except in some places, James, as you know, Malin votes are not an automatic for Democrats, I think a little bit more this year than usual, but in some there

[00:33:28] James Carville: probably

[00:33:28] Al Hunt: a couple of Republicans up there who say, Hey, I want it to

[00:33:32] James Carville: right.

[00:33:33] But, but if he vetoes and I mean, I look, I don't know, but I just know the amount of attention that is going to be paid to voting the voting process, how people vote if people didn't knew about it before, but that wasn't front and center in their minds. This is it. This is as much as COVID. Anything else, any other crisis that we face with it?

[00:33:58] Because the answer [00:34:00] to this crisis, there's people voting and people understand that. I give you for example, your God, Jeff's everything through the LSU football team, but the leadership counts, I there's like four players that coach appoints and they can, you know, go in and request a meeting and whatever, what they came in and asked for it was busted to take students downtown are registered to vote.

[00:34:24] I mean, that's how ingrained voting is in particularly in these communities of color, African American communities. I mean, people want to vote.

[00:34:38] Al Hunt: Yeah. They're going to

[00:34:39] James Carville: get, if they take the same people in the street, now you stop people from voting and there'll be more people in the streets than you got now.

[00:34:47] I

[00:34:47] Al Hunt: think I read the Georgia tech, uh, requested that all athletic activities and university's be suspended on election day so people can vote. Uh, I don't think that wouldn't happen five, 10

[00:34:57] James Carville: years ago, but, but do you [00:35:00] see those people in Georgia, five hours they're waiting in line and Stacey Abrams is very effective.

[00:35:09] You know, she's going to be point person on this combine and they stole it from her. And Joe jock is front and center. This is now moved into going to be the most covered state and the 2020 cycle. I thought it was gonna be North Carolina before, but now it's going to be Georgia.

[00:35:27] Al Hunt: Well, I think Florida may be an a time given their history, but you're right is certainly front and center James.

[00:35:33] One more thing. Uh, George Floyd was murdered 17 days ago in Minneapolis. That's the only the latest and a litany of these racial tragedies. Uh, too many of them involving police officers. Usually the pattern is there's protest for a week or so. Talk about big change. And nothing happens. Uh, I think this one is different.

[00:35:55] I really believe that that's just not a wish. I think it's different for a couple of reasons. Number [00:36:00] one, that video, there was no ambivalence. Everyone could see what happened, you know, almost nine minutes, uh, that thug officer had his knee. Uh, on Floyd who said, I can't breathe. It's quite clear. No one can look at it and say, well, he was a threat.

[00:36:13] Secondly, I think the grid they're grassroots movements, black lives matter surge that have really built up forces in those communities about these outrages. And thirdly, it's accumulation of these. And I really do believe that these, this is different. This has gone on now for 17 days. It's not just a bunch of angry inner city blacks.

[00:36:33] Those who have the most right. Um, uh, to protest and, and, and, and to be outraged, but there were joined by a whole lot of allies and Trump who thought he could play the law and order and race card. It's not working.

[00:36:45] James Carville: No, it's not. How, how much of this translates to policy? We'll see. I mean, I think of this, you know, what?

[00:36:55] Politicians make a decision at a point and. [00:37:00] It causes me look at the Confederate monuments in new Orleans, suppose that they would not have taken them down. And Robert Lee, Justin Davis we'll sit and see a huge stash. Just take a, how much more unrest we would have had take a, how much more anger there would have been.

[00:37:24] Just and think of that in a lot of different places around the country, where it was kind of perceptive that people saw, well, you didn't see it, George Florida was coming, but they were revolting against the Confederate symbols, Confederate monuments. And I think that the fact that a lot of these were taken down had a eight.

[00:37:48] A positive effect. Now we had huge, huge, huge demonstrations. Police make one mistake. We seem to gotten through that. Okay. Uh, but [00:38:00] yeah, it's really, it's really something. When you think of that one decision that was made, how much difference that made four years later? It's really amazing.

[00:38:08] Al Hunt: No, I agree. But there's, James is more, more to be done.

[00:38:11] Uh, and I, unless it's changed in the last week, And in Tennessee on July 13th, there will be a celebration as there has been every year for the last 40 of Nathan Bedford Forrest day, with his statue in the, uh, and the state Capitol. This was the first grand dragon of the KU Klux Klan. Uh, I mean, that is unacceptable.

[00:38:33] James Carville: They're going to be a lot. I'll tell you what, if they're got any sense. They wouldn't have my strong suggestion. Don't do that. If you're going to have, you're going to have a lot of people in the music city. They could be playing board and country music. I promise.

[00:38:50] Al Hunt: But, but I think you're right. I think, um, you, you asked how much of it will translate to policy.

[00:38:56] We don't know, but there are things that are already beginning to happen, [00:39:00] uh, that, that hadn't happened before some States and cities. Uh, are passing tougher laws on policing. Uh, the, the house is about to pass a bill, even some Republican senators, Tim Scott and Mitt Romney. Now they're, they're really kinda mild versions and they don't go nearly far enough.

[00:39:19] But, uh, they have, uh, you know, they're doing stuff. I really think this is

[00:39:23] James Carville: different. And the key question at

[00:39:25] Al Hunt: the end is what our guests have a week or so ago. David Harris said, it's accountability. I think most cops are good decent officers, but there is more than a few bad apples who aren't and they have to be held accountable.

[00:39:40] And if you don't set up a system of accountability, then not much else is going to matter.

[00:39:46] James Carville: Well, I mean, I'm, I'm glad you're optimistic. You know, I think this has had a real effect on white opinion. I think if you asked them, I know there's a black person, you didn't know. And you're, [00:40:00] you know, I think what most whites say without personalizing it, you are, I was, yeah, we knew there was a problem about dad and, you know, the Freddie gray thing and it I'm going to put him in the back of the van.

[00:40:11] You couldn't actually see it. Yeah.  and I think people's collective almost a collective gasp of white America was damn. I didn't know it was like this, you know,  and it really moved. And it was really glad. Cause uh, New York times called me the day of the day after you know, about impact. And I said that the video it's going to have a profound effect on white opinion.

[00:40:41] I mean, I think it galvanized preexisting black opinion. All right. But whites just went, Oh my God. I mean, I knew it at some level. I knew it was bad. I mean, we weren't, that's stupid. You know, we, [00:41:00] if we, you know, we always talk about it and talk about my wife's supposedly adopted a black child. I mean, you'd be modified.

[00:41:09] I mean, you think of that, uh, you know, you and Judy adopted an Asian child. You think about what boy? Yeah. Well, you will not stop you. You will be, you would be a thousand percent aware of it. I mean, I worry about my students before all of this and, uh,  I think it's, it's shaken white opinion. It really has.

[00:41:34] Now how long that lasts. I think it will have some lasting the fact I really do.

[00:41:38] Al Hunt: Yeah, I do too. Uh, and I think you, you know, you see that, um, I think they have been helped, uh, frankly by, uh, Donald Trump's, uh, outrageous, uh, and some of the behavior and the rhetoric, uh, of others. I mean, I would just, you know, one thing which I know is dear to your heart, your [00:42:00] new Orla, your great new Orleans Saint quarterback, drew Brees, uh, made a mistake.

[00:42:04] Uh, and he talked about the kneeling and how disrespectful the flag is African American teammates immediately. And LeBron James unloaded, and he realized his mistake. Uh, and he is, I think what looked like a very heartfelt apology, but it was still in the balance because he created tensions and then he was saved by Donald Trump

[00:42:24] James Carville: who criticized him.

[00:42:25] Al Hunt: And now drew Brees has taken on Donald Trump. And, uh, you know, that, that says something that really does

[00:42:32] James Carville: delay. The latest is spike. Lee said everything is cool address that, whatever, if there was any residue. Cleaned that up, but you're right in his wife, Brittany, she's very savvy and she really came out to, and what does is the question?

[00:42:53] Well, Roger Goodell walked a midfield and take a knee with Colin Kaepernick. Colin Kaepernick is [00:43:00] a true visionary. I mean, he, he risked his entire career and I mean, Th the, the venom that, that everything you could imagine about colon cabinet, but you know, when you look back at Colin Kaepernick and like tell somebody it don't do any good.

[00:43:19] If you're Neil doing blueberry Hill, right? Not only are you going to get advised attention,  he and an eight dramatic way really is an American visionary. I mean, that. Because he saw something and brought attention to something and, you know, we just want to watch football. We don't need all that politics.

[00:43:42] You're disrespecting the military. I mean, it was, Oh, it was all a lot of that going on a lot. And now you look back. And, you know, it was really amazing. And I, [00:44:00] I, I think Mitch Landrieu saw ahead of the curve too, but when people see a problem and bring it to the attention of the public long before it explodes in our faces, I mean, I think what Kevin did was one of the most remarkable acts of.

[00:44:20] Public protest. I literally I've ever see

[00:44:23] Al Hunt: James. He is, he is this generation's John Carlos and Tommie Smith. They were the Olympic sprinters in 68, who on the stand performed, they won, they went on the stand and they held up their fist and they,

[00:44:38] James Carville: who is the Silva man?

[00:44:39] Al Hunt: Uh, he's from Australia.

[00:44:42] James Carville: You got it.

[00:44:44] Peter knew

[00:44:45] Al Hunt: Peter Norman, right?

[00:44:48] James Carville: Right. Whatever you got, if you blew me off, then you fro I did sort of age, but they did. They, they actually showed great courage. All they did was hold up their

[00:44:57] Al Hunt: fist. The black power salute about, um, uh, [00:45:00] the way blacks were disenfranchised

[00:45:01] James Carville: and they paid a huge price.

[00:45:03] Al Hunt: And I'm almost sure about 45 years later, uh, Barack Obama award a medal of freedom.

[00:45:09] And I'll tell ya it won't the good news. It will not take Colin Cabernet. 45 years. It'll be in the first Biden administration. He will be at the white house, receiving the medal of freedom, freedom, which will be justly deserved.

[00:45:21] James Carville: It'd be the first year. Okay. I mean, I just, it, you just think that how everybody went nuts, I'm into sports leagues, you know, to everything.

[00:45:36] It's just an amazing story. And then the Nike ad, I mean, Colin, Kevin, Nick is a global brand.

[00:45:44] Al Hunt: You now have a number of, of white quarterbacks and white players who were saying he deserves to be in our league. Uh, that wasn't the case three or four years ago.

[00:45:54] James Carville: And, and you know, these players, uh, you know, if you're plow [00:46:00] Dallas Cowboys, you don't want to be thought of is, you know, a corporate guy, you know, and other players, you know, Michael Thomas with the saints has been very, very, probably the best receiving the league.

[00:46:11] I think you probably, yeah, at least the best three in the league for sure. And he was very out front and. You know, he was the first person to come on. Drew's the initial take. And you know, these guys, you know, that they have reputations and that very competitive, obviously professional football players.

[00:46:33] What do you expect? And the cowboy players. Oh, I guarantee you that any number of zoom team meetings going on here right now.

[00:46:43] Al Hunt: Yeah. Yeah. I agree. Same with the, um, inappropriately named Washington Redskins, but, um, it is, I think I really do believe it's a sea change. How much policy changes will occur. We don't know yet.

[00:46:56] There'll be some and they may just build to do more. Uh, more than others, [00:47:00] but we are witnessing a, um, a really important time. James, this has been a great show. I w thank Tim. O'Brian again, anyone out there who hasn't read Trump nation, I think he can still get it from Amazon. Uh, and I want to thank you for listening to 2020 politics war room and follow the show on Twitter at politics we're room.

[00:47:19] You can also email us politics, war rum, uh, at gmail.com. Uh, and that's politics war rome@gmail.com. If you have a comment or question for us, let us know what you think of the show. Thank you for subscribing. Please tell your sons and daughters, sisters, and brothers on your next home call. And also tell them to please be safe.

[00:47:40] Tell the whole family James Santa new Orleans. You stay safe and we'll talk to you again next week.