Walter Dellinger on the Eroding Justice Department, and Keith Mason and Paul Begala on the Odds of Texas and Georgia Going Blue
The Supreme Court has dealt powerful blows to the Trump agenda in recent days, protecting DACA recipients' status and upholding anti-discrimination protections for LGBTQ individuals. Duke University School of Law Douglas B. Maggs Professor Emeritus of Law Walter Dellinger notes that the conservative justices see beyond the current president, towards a lifetime of decision-making. But that does not mean the U.S. justice system will remain intact with William Barr at the helm, he warns. On the other hand, political consultants Keith Mason and Paul Begala find hope in the new direction communities around Atlanta and Houston are taking, no matter the outcome of 2020.
Show Notes:
00:00 – Intro
01:15 – The Chief Justice’s court
05:45 – Barriers to a progressive agenda
10:00 – Michael Flynn updates
15:15 – The incredulous Barr
22:45 – Georgia’s bellwether
27:00 – The face of Texas’ future
32:00 – The best part of Biden staying quiet
36:15 – A Trump-less ticket
39:45 – A wolf by the ears
44:45 – Some final impressions
Transcript:
Al Hunt: [00:00:00] Hello and welcome to 2020 politics war room with James Carville. I'm Al hunt here in Washington. James is back in the Shenandoah. We are proud partners with the sign Institute at American university, and we can't wait to get back to the AAU studio at some point. We have three great guests this week.
We'll get to in a minute, but we kindly request you first. If you like the show, please subscribe to 2020 politics war room on Apple podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or wherever you listen to your podcasts. James. Our first guest is a former acting Dean of the Duke law school, where he's taught for a quarter century, the former solicitor general of the United States.
One of the great appellate lawyers to ever argue before the Supreme court and listen to this now, a recipient of North Carolina's order of the long leaf pine, whatever the hell that is, and a devoted fan of the last place. UNC Tarheel basketball team, the great Walter Dellinger.
The legal guru for the Carville Hunt War Room podcast, but now he's closing weeks for the Supreme court.
Is it right to say that more than any time? At least since Earl Warren, this really is the chief justice is court.
Walter Dellinger: [00:01:19] Oh yes. I think that's right. He clearly is the one person who has his hand on the rudder to try to steer the court, um, in a way that's not entirely, um, uh, consistent with his own. Legal ideological political beliefs, uh, which I think, uh, uh, you know, are quite conservative.
I do believe he's, uh, he is sobered by the, by the fact that he's chief justice of a court that he went. Not want to see, decide case after case, after case on the exact five for party lines, split, uh, wrecking havoc. And I think, um, here's the decision to join with, uh, five others and to make the case applying the anti-discrimination statute, uh, to the LBG, uh, T community is a sign of that that would not have been his.
His instinct. I mean, I think he said he was a law clerk to chief justice Rehnquist, and I want to interview justice Rehnquist. And I asked him, um, whether being chief justice, he changed how he went about his work as a justice deciding cases. And after a policy said it does because the court has to work as an institution.
And I feel that responsibility at times. Is
Al Hunt: [00:02:44] part of it. It was mr. Dooley said the court follows the election returns. Do they also anticipate them, do they see the political environment now?
Walter Dellinger: [00:02:54] I think in some sense, that is, uh, that's that's that's true. I remember in 1992, when the court. Recessed and the end of June, uh, uh, bill Clinton was running third.
Uh, James Cabo remembered this and, uh, running third, uh, behind, uh, president Bush and Ross Perot, uh, when the court reassembled in October. Bill Clinton was in ascendancy and rolling towards victory and justice Blackman told me that there was such a difference when the court broke up, uh, justice Scalia and the others knew that reinforcements were coming.
Uh, uh, uh, more Republicans were set to join the court and they were taking no prisoners. They were not compromising on anything. And when the court returned in October, the atmosphere was. Quite different. They realized that bill Clinton was going to be the next group of Supreme court justice system.
Al Hunt: [00:03:55] Just one more, Walter.
Uh, have we learned, we've now gone through a couple of terms with Gorsuch and Kavanaugh. There were a few exceptions, but they still look pretty much like a right wing, conservative Republican. Don't they?
Walter Dellinger: [00:04:08] I think that's right. I mean, of course there's does show signs of being. Quite seriously, devoted to methodology.
I mean, sometimes has gut-level instincts about what's right and wrong. Uh, you know, when a large policy sense might override his methodology, but in the, in the case involving sex discrimination, and he seemed quite wedded to his methodology of looking at the texts and saying that these people are being discriminated against because of sex.
And that third him was determinative. Now, listen, I think there are things that they care about. Um, uh, both the Gorsuch and capita are going to care about, uh, reducing the size of the, of, of the government. Uh, they're going to want to keep the resources in the hands of the rich. They're not troubled by the influence of wealth on the political process.
They, uh, indeed I think they will welcome it. Uh, Uh, they would, uh, would have joined, I think, and Shelby County, which guided parts of the voting rights act there, that they will be very skeptical of any legislation that has any redistributive effect, which could be a real problem. If we ever have a progressive government and, uh, with this, we know what they don't care about.
They don't care about Donald J. Trump. They're going to be on the court for decades. They're going to be on the court for decades after he is no longer around.
Al Hunt: [00:05:32] Yeah. Yeah. That's true. Mr. Carvell of the LSU law school will now inquire mr. Dellinger of Yale and Duke
James Carville: [00:05:43] in Gorsuch. Yup. Get a little bit away from orthodoxy. It's like DACA and, uh, also to, uh, to gay rights legislation. And if there are any distance between Roberts Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, Lido Thomas, on what I would call corporate issue
Walter Dellinger: [00:06:04] business,
James Carville: [00:06:05] you know, that kind of stuff. So, yeah. Yeah. That's not, that's the really important thing here, I think to give you.
Oh, look, we're just being impartial here.
Walter Dellinger: [00:06:24] Not since the Rehnquist court.
So thoroughly replaced the Warren court, there was an interregnum of though the burger. Correct. But I think since then, there's been a solid conservative pro-business majority. What concerns me about the future? If president Trump. Yeah, you just control the court through another nomination, uh, uh, in this term or nominations in the second term, which you're sure to Cubs.
I really worry that if we ever have a progressive government president house Senate, that they would be prepared to invalidate legislation that had a redistributive effect, the objection of, of, of, uh, of, uh, at least four of the justices. So the affordable care act came out an oral argument where we have justice.
Lita said, isn't this really about transferring wealth from younger and healthier people to older and sicker people. And it's just a wealth transfer. Where's John Burley, the solicitor general brilliantly answered very succinctly the social security act of 1935 was upheld by unanimous court period, which did exactly that.
Of course,
James Carville: [00:07:30] the language of the 16th amendment is pretty clear. Yeah, I don't, how could they didn't validate, you know, highly progressive income taxation.
Walter Dellinger: [00:07:43] I think they could not, I think what they would, uh, uh, those, those are hard politically to pass James. It's easier to get through, you know, and requirement that people have a minimum healthcare and to put the burden on insurance companies, et cetera, and the court, the court smells redistribution.
Uh, when it looks at the affordable care act. In fact, it was, if you asked what Obama did for, for poverty and wealth redistribution, the affordable care act played about a pretty major role in making us a more equitable society. Not that it got us anywhere near where we need to be, but it's certainly put us in the right direction
in terms of the taxation. Now I think that's right. I think it's going to be a different, difficult, slight over whether Congress can tax wealth, which is a much more sensible way. You might write a great book that and have a big year, but income that year. Does it really relate to your ability to contribute to the government as much as what your net worth is?
So even a 1% tax. On income over 20 million, $20 million a year raises a hell of a lot of money,
James Carville: [00:08:59] right? And that's, you can do that easily. That's constitutionally permissible.
Walter Dellinger: [00:09:06] There's a debate over that because the 16th of November only applies to income tax. And the question is whether a tax on wealth, you know, is, is, is such a, it's the same thing as an income tax,
James Carville: [00:09:18] right.
But if I make $20 million in a year, Is it
Walter Dellinger: [00:09:24] what you really want? What you really want to do is to tax a little Lord Fauntleroy. Who's sitting on $40 million. Uh, do you want me to take the half this over 20 million subjected to 1% a year? And that's, that's quite a progressive machine. I've defended the constitutionality of that as a proposal.
And it's never been put forward by a presidential candidate. He said if it did come up during the democratic primary.
James Carville: [00:09:56] There's podcasts at 11 Eastern on Wednesday, but did you have a chance to smaller in the seat appellate court ruling that said that you had to stop the prosecution?
Al Hunt: [00:10:14] It was a two to one decision by that three judge panel.
Walter Dellinger: [00:10:25] Uh, Oh,
Al Hunt: [00:10:28] get to the full court of appeals, Walter.
Walter Dellinger: [00:10:30] Yes, they will. They'll take it to the full DC circuit and, uh, uh, uh, this'll be reversed. Uh, this'll be reversed by the full circuit. I can guarantee you, you can have you back on and you can change from being a fool. It's two to one decision will not stand. Um, they, uh, judge Naomi Rau has been a consistent, um, I a, a consistent supporter of, um, uh, of Trump and she's showing in the opinion by judge Karen Henderson, who is one of the more, more conservative of a George H w Bush nominees who are still, uh, we're still on the court.
Uh, Robert Wilkins in the sense as a majority, grievously overstepped is its own authority by horsing, following to drop the case. It makes no sense whatsoever constantly project that they, that they full circuit will, uh, uh, will reverse this two to one decision. Um, is this an, every norm around this, just breaking down, um, They could have reviewed this matter after judge Sullivan had ruled.
Of course, um,
The plan to have a July 16th hearing before judge Sullivan on the government's request. Um,
Al Hunt: [00:11:58] well, well this, this gets to your, um, your least favorite and our least favorite attorney general. You know, the, the, the notion bill BARR was a conservative, even a right wing, uh, attorney general, who had some politics, uh, and his, and his veins.
Waller. He is a right wing attorney general. Who's willing to bend justice in any way he can to suit the political needs of Donald J. Trump and William Barr. I think this is worse than John Mitchell.
Walter Dellinger: [00:12:25] You know, I, I was asking whether he was the worst attorney general and thinking about that show. I think he has been more effectively worse than John Mitchell.
Uh, John Mitchell must be thinking from wherever he's looking up or down that damn. I wish I had fun doing that.
I'll tell you like, here's the fundamental mistake I made about bill BARR? Uh, I thought it was a good choice for a Trump, uh, attorney general, given that, because I thought that Moore had, uh, had to go home and he's to stand up to Donald Trump when Trump tried to push the department around and I was right about the fact that bar.
Has the capacity to stand up to Trump. What I didn't understand was how much he not only agrees with Trump, he's driving this agenda. The idea that, that, that, that, that bar is some kind of puppet of Trump's, uh, completely misses the fact that it's the attorney general himself who is driving this, uh, uh, dismantling of.
The system of, of, of justice. And I find that you're shocking. I don't know what has happened to bill BARR in the time since he was, uh, uh, attorney channel the first time to bring this about, I mean, it's, um, I was just reading the testimony the Wednesday morning, a prepared statement of assistant us attorney Aaron as a landscape, uh, amount, the, the intervention and the, um, Sentencing of Roger Stone.
Uh, it's just shocking. We have never seen this kind of politicization of the, uh, of the department of justice. Now there's one sense in which politicization they use that term. There's nothing wrong with it, president and an attorney general setting the policy agenda of the department to say, we're going to have more rigorous enforcement of the antitrust laws.
Or that we're going to make priority reviewing violations of civil rights by law enforcement, by state and local law enforcement officers is very different to say, we're going to go after this particular police officer, because he's the nephew of a political opponent of the president. Oh, we're not going to go again against this other police officer, because his family has been a political support of the press.
That is a very different matter. And that is aligned at the department of justice. In my view, uh, simply hasn't crossed the Salinsky is a career prosecutor said he had never seen an appearance. And the role of prosecutorial decision making for political reasons was the one exception of United States vs.
Roger Stone.
Al Hunt: [00:15:21] I think the one good thing Walter, that might come out of this is that when he's appointed these two U S attorneys, one of whom was a former Trump counsel in the white house to look into what happened to try to. Really absolve, uh, Trump and people of any, um, Russian your parents and go after the people who were investigating.
I don't think, I I'm sure what they're going to come up with now. I don't think it's going to have any credibility now. I've given bill bars a total, total lack of credibility.
Walter Dellinger: [00:15:49] I think that's, I think that's absolutely correct. History is going to judge. BARR harsher. He's going to judge. Every enabler is going to judge every member of the United States Senate, especially those, every Republican member of the United States Senate.
And especially those who serve on the committee of jurisdiction. That judiciary committee are going to be harshly judged. If they stood by left this happening, it's an open. Book anyone who can sit down and read the what 500 pages of the Mueller report, and then sit down and read how bill BARR wouldn't release the report, but relation's own summary, which is not just, just in Genuis, but mendacious in its misleading characterization of the, of the report.
And then this stunt. That that the attorney general pulled by giving his morning Ramallah report was released by giving his own press conference summary of the report for three hours before the report was released. In order to, to dominate the store in one, they, they, they talk about collusion with the Russia.
Now, Russia is now being a hoax when they, when the report always says that they're not going to indict senior members of the campaign because of lack of proof beyond a reasonable doubt, that there was an actual agreement. An actual agreement between campaign officials and they indicted 17 Russia, military officials.
When in fact the, uh, cooperation. It's all over the Mueller report, 200 instances of connections between it. And then you come to the, uh, I mean, that is enough to disqualify on bar from the attorney general. When you come to the, uh, the Roger Stone matter and read and detail the seriousness of his crimes, this is someone who was perverting.
The democratic processes of electing a president of the United States at laundry stuff and who not only just wide, repeatedly and flagrantly under oath before Congress, he says there were no written communications when there were hundreds of emails between him and campaign officials. When he lies about the most serious matters he lies about who was involved so that they, they, that, that, that interferes with the investigation.
He lies. Um, he not only lies, he actually engages in. And witness and Timur and intimidation. This is mafia level organized crime efforts by Roger Stone and, uh, the, the way in which the department took the sentencing memorandum submitted by the career prosecutors and replaced it the same day with a new memorandum, which as the testimony Wednesday morning, the sworn testimony.
Um, uh, career, uh, prosecutors, the landscape says actually distorted the record of the trial when they, when they submitted it.
James Carville: [00:19:07] Well, first of all, I would, I'd like to point out to mr. Hunt and mr. Delena that the James Carville and Dao Chan constitutional law at Louisiana state university law school is an African American Yale law graduate. There are good law schools around this country,
Walter Dellinger: [00:19:22] but, and LSU and LSU is one of them. Aye.
Aye.
James Carville: [00:19:26] Aye. Aye. I do good. If let's say that Congress passed president signs, 13 members of Supreme court is that constitutional,
Walter Dellinger: [00:19:35] absolutely beyond per dendro doubts.
James Carville: [00:19:38] And that could add another a hundred appellate court judges if they wanted to.
Walter Dellinger: [00:19:42] They could, they often do a charge of spill when you have, uh, when it's time to do so.
Uh, and you would only do that. It would, it would be a blow to the legitimacy of the court, but the question would be at the time you considered it, whether there was any legitimacy left or the court, uh, it could well be the only choice that, uh, that was available. If the court took a turn toward illegitimacy and not just a turn towards.
Conservative
Supreme court has been a number of the constitute number of jobs. It has been 10. It has been, uh, at different points. If you want to talk about quarterbacking, Mitch McConnell, essentially engaged in functional court Packy when justice Scalia died, he, he reduced the, the functionally reduce the size of the court to eight, as long as it was a democratic president.
And only when there was a president of his party. Did he increase the size of the court back to now? Not literally, but functionally is exactly what, uh, what happened.
James Carville: [00:21:00] That's a great point. I never thought of that.
Walter Dellinger: [00:21:02] That's original.
Al Hunt: [00:21:03] Well,
Walter Dellinger: [00:21:04] Walter, you're
Al Hunt: [00:21:04] always, you're always original. You're always interesting.
Uh, you are, as I say, our lawyer, I have just one final question. What in the hell is the order of the long leaf pine.
Walter Dellinger: [00:21:19] You could have picked out a number of other accolades. I've got the only lovely side it's actually given by the governor of North Carolina, which is a state where the long leaf pine, I believe to be the date. Um, the state tree, the state tree is given to those for notable contributions to the tar heel state.
It is an honor. I wear proudly that and being in the Myers park high school hall of fame.
James Carville: [00:21:45] Wow. Well, thank you, Brett, Jonah. I don't know. I don't know how to Sunday's
Walter Dellinger: [00:21:54] legal.
Always. Great to talk to you guys.
Al Hunt: [00:22:07] James will the South rise again? Well, the Democrats two expert guests, Paul gala, it was of course the brains of the car bill, but gobbled directed Clinton campaign in 1992, one of the most genuine and insightful democratic thinkers, a native of Fort bend County, Texas, once represented by Tom, the hammer delay.
And I think he's going to tell us how the times they are a changing and Keith Mason, a prominent Georgia lawyer, top aid. Uh, to Zell Miller, former governor advisor to bill Clinton and Sam Nunn among others, and a proud native of when that County Keith let's start with you. When ed County I think is the second biggest in Georgia, uh, it was once overwhelmingly white.
Uh, it was Newt Gingrich country. Tell us what's changed.
Keith Mason: [00:22:54] Well, there's been a lot of growth in Gwinnett County since that time. And a lot of people from diverse backgrounds have moved in in fact, uh, 25% of our population were not born in the United States. Uh, so it is a, a County, in my opinion, that looks a lot like the future of America.
And, uh, it has, uh, uh, a broad demographic. Scope.
Al Hunt: [00:23:18] It's a County that's likely to go for Joe Biden. Uh, this November,
Keith Mason: [00:23:22] I think it definitely goes for Joe Biden. Just the question is how much, um, Stacey Abrams got 57% of the vote. Um, okay. In 2018, Hillary Clinton got, um, 51 in 2016. That was the first a presidential candidate that has carried the County since Jimmy Carter in 1976.
Al Hunt: [00:23:46] That's a mate, just for historical purposes. What was, what was George Bush getting back in 2004, for instance? Yeah, just roughly,
Keith Mason: [00:23:55] uh, George Bush, uh, in 2004, got 59%. John Kerry. You're not 41. No, no, no. That's statewide. No. George Bush got 67% in 2004.
Al Hunt: [00:24:11] Wow. 67 is Stacey Abrams, 57. Do you think overall, do you think that Biden will carry Georgia?
Keith Mason: [00:24:19] I think he has a really good shot given the growth of our state and the diversity of our state. The big question is whether they, our people get the chance
James Carville: [00:24:27] to vote. Yes, sir. Election night. If you just kept your eye on good neck. If, if Biden gets 60% and Barnett he's going to carry Georgia, right?
Keith Mason: [00:24:40] Yes.
James Carville: [00:24:40] Yes.
That may be just, we'll get one thing the whole night, right? Chad is the watershed number. He gets at him for that. He carries what? 16 electoral votes.
Keith Mason: [00:24:52] Exactly. There'll be a 10 point gap between. Democratic vote in Georgia and what they'll get statewide.
James Carville: [00:25:02] Okay. So while I've got you on the phone and we're going to go to Paul in the Senate race in both of them, you have to get to well in the end, but you have to democratic the Republican primary in, in, uh, I guess, as to is that the produce seat
Keith Mason: [00:25:21] and there's a libertarian Alan Buckley.
Walter Dellinger: [00:25:23] Who went
Paul Begala: [00:25:24] by the way,
James Carville: [00:25:25] I'll get 50. You gotta, you have to have a runoff, correct?
Paul Begala: [00:25:29] Correct.
James Carville: [00:25:30] Okay. Which is why I'm most likely neither one to get to 50. Uh, it's possible,
Keith Mason: [00:25:36] but it's also possible if there's a, you know, a big wave. Yeah. Awesome.
James Carville: [00:25:42] When's an outright. Yeah,
Al Hunt: [00:25:45] for a second. Isn't the other, see Keith in essence, a primary
Keith Mason: [00:25:51] like they do, and James is a native state, Louisiana.
It's what they call the jungle primary. And so it's. Oh, And,
Walter Dellinger: [00:26:00] uh,
Keith Mason: [00:26:01] the last time we had an election, like that was in the year 2000 when Zell Miller was, uh, appointed by governor Roy Barnes to DePaul Coverdale, unexpired term and Miller. Oh, his primary primary opponent was former Senator mathematically. And he, there were some other candidates, but he, he won.
Pretty clearly, but not by a lot, like 53, four. Uh, but he did carry Gwinnette
Walter Dellinger: [00:26:29] County that year. So
James Carville: [00:26:30] there's some change. We could have two Georgia Senate seats decided in January of 2021.
Keith Mason: [00:26:37] Yes, yes, yes. The open seat, the Johnny Isaacson seat, the one that locked Kelly Laufer holds, here's the one that's most likely to be
Paul Begala: [00:26:47] go to a runoff.
James Carville: [00:26:48] Right. But, but it's possibly could have to not be shafted.
Walter Dellinger: [00:26:52] Right, right.
Keith Mason: [00:26:52] Well, the other thing is January 5th, I think is the date.
Paul Begala: [00:26:56] Something like that.
Al Hunt: [00:26:57] Well, all right, let's go to the eyes of Texas. Uh, Paul Paul Begala. Uh, tell us about, about your native home County Fort Ben, Texas. Uh, once I think represented by Tom, the hammer delay.
Uh, like Gwinette it's quite different today, right?
Paul Begala: [00:27:16] It is. I I'm old enough to remember when Tom delay was our pest control guy and he got into politics because the evil EPA, outlawed DDT, and that pissed him off so much, he got into play. He was my state representative and he was my Congressman when I was a kid or about 50,000 people in Fort bend County, the whole County today there's over 800,000.
So when I was a kid, even, even in a democratic Texas Fort bend County, went for Nixon in 68, even though Texas went for, for Humphrey, it went for Ford in 76, even though Texas went for Carter. So it was a very conservative, very Republican County, the kind of place that produces Tom delay. But when you move from 50,000 people, 50 years ago to over 800,000 today, And it has surged to the wealthiest County in Texas, immediate family income, a hundred, $6,000 things change.
And today there is no racial majority, uh, it's less than 50% white back in the forties, lots of African Americans, which there were when I was a kid and lots of Latinos, but now. A S a swarm, a wonderful, uh, it, uh, uh, addition of first Americans and new Americans, rather from Vietnam, from China, from the Philippines, from India, from Pakistan, from Nigeria, it is, it is among the most diverse counties in America.
If not the most. And that makes a whole new politics there.
Al Hunt: [00:28:43] Well, just pack that in for a second. Cause it goes so against the conventional thinking. This is the richest wealthiest County in Texas, and it's 60% a minority. That's not generally what we think of when we think of a, a predominantly minority, uh, counties that really makes it rather unique.
It
Paul Begala: [00:29:02] does because people have come. I went back, of course, I live up in the DC area now, but in, in, uh, the fall of 2016, September, 2016, I went back down to Houston. I go there a lot. I have a lot of family and my brother said it was a Friday night. And he said, Hey, it's homecoming at our old high school. So we went, we hadn't been up.
Our home County football game decades. And we walk in that same stadium that we used to play in, and it was packed for the homecoming game and it looked like a Benetton ad. It looked like the United nation, there were, uh, uh, Arab American girls were in high jobs in the school colors. It was the most amazing display of the richness and diversity of America you ever seen.
So, and we sat with the parents of course, and started asking them every parent we sat with was an immigrant. Every one of those parents had moved to Fort Mann County, Texas from somewhere in the world. And we asked him why. And they said, cause we want to live the American dream. These are highly educated people, a lot in tech and a lot in medicine.
You know, Houston is a famous green oil city. It's really a medical powerhouse and it has completely transformed this place. And I think for the good,
Al Hunt: [00:30:16] well, I'm going to introduce you to James Carville in a minute, but just finally, uh, and what does that say about the politics? And, uh, I assume it must be a.
Predominantly democratic County now. And there's that lead the way we started back when that County 10 points, uh, Biden wins the state, uh, how about Fort Ben as a barometer for whether Biden's gonna win? Texas
Paul Begala: [00:30:36] Fort bend is probably still a little more Republican than cornet. I defer to Keith on that, but, but Hillary won narrowly 51 52 Beto O'Rourke.
In 2018 without a surge that the presidential candidate usually brings in turnout. He won there as well. So I would look for it to be a bit of a bellwether if the margin moves up and I think it will. I think Biden is showing enormous strength among, uh, college educated whites and among immigrants, which is and African Americans, Latinos.
That's my County. Uh, so I do think there's a real chance that the race to watch there in addition to Biden is the congressional race. Okay. Tom delay was my Congressman for a generation and now the Pete Olson is retiring. The seat is open. And the M the Democrat running is a guy named Sri Preston Kulkarni.
Cerise father moved to Fort bend County from India. Sri was born in the district he's first-generation American on his dad's side. He ran the last time at Pete Olson, accused him of being quote, an Indo American carpetbagger. To which three had two answers. First, I was born in this district and you weren't, sir.
And second, I'm proud that my father came to America, seeking the American dream in Fort bend County. My mother's family came to Texas too, but a little earlier, her great, great grandfather was a man named Sam Houston. You may have heard of him. He was in Alfred's Texas, too. I mean, Sri is just, he speaks eight languages for real.
James Carville: [00:32:01] You haven't shot
Paul Begala: [00:32:02] a direct descendant of Sam Houston and the son of an Indian immigrant.
James Carville: [00:32:06] That might be the best comeback I've ever heard. So I want to talk to you just a second about presidential politics chapter, you know, something about, and there was a as, you know, follow John Jake, and he had a. Peace this morning that said actually Joe Biden is running a good campaign.
And it's all the headlines of how mediocre it is. And I actually agree with that and people, I think that plan, this thing pretty smart right now.
Paul Begala: [00:32:34] Well, I agree. I think he's the nominee because he understood his party better than the rest of the candidates. Uh, and I talked to many of the candidates and I would always say to them, when you think of your party, you thinking of the base of your party, you're thinking of, uh, uh, an assistant professor of aroma therapy candle making it Iowa state.
It, you know, we love him, but that's not the base. The base of your party is a church lady in Orangeburg, South Carolina. That's right. What. Joe Biden understood. He understood the heart of his party, his people of color, and he had earned their support. And that's why he's a nominee. I think the same way he understands our country.
And I think he has been dialed in exactly where, what the country wants, which is unity, reconciliation, healing, integrity, but also not extremism. I thought he was very deft when he. Put aside this notion of defunding the police and instead redefined, uh, what, what we need to do in terms of having more, uh, folks who are, are maybe better trained in, uh, mental health care and other things that the cops are mishandling.
Now,
James Carville: [00:33:39] I thought that was very deft. Yeah. I started, you know, it looks in a primary. He actually didn't have a campaign. He had an idea and his idea was right. All right, Clive and drop to him. I was skeptical of what, you know, I knew people weren't going to vote for Trump. I've always known Biden was gonna win.
He has surprised me and Keith aren't you, if you could weigh in on this too, because you watch it closely, he's actually surprised me by running a Def to campaign. I'm not wanting to, you know, Oh God, your body's gonna do some wrong God Biden. And actually, as of now, The evidence is it's out there that he's running an actually a really good campaign.
Keith Mason: [00:34:22] Yeah. He's, he's playing it very smart. I mean, he,
Walter Dellinger: [00:34:24] he's respecting
Keith Mason: [00:34:26] the seriousness of this pandemic in terms of his personal behavior and he's letting Trump be Trump. And right now
James Carville: [00:34:34] people are sick of Trump. So Albert. W w what's your reaction to that?
Al Hunt: [00:34:38] Well, I, I think he's been, I think he's been helped enormously by two factors.
Number one, Trump, uh, I mean, and I think number two, I actually think the pandemic has probably helped you on two grounds. Number one, uh, he's serious about it, whereas his opponent is not. Uh, and, uh, secondly, uh, I think campaign from Wilmington, Delaware has served him well. Uh, he, we all know Joe sometimes can be Joe and, uh, but no, I think, you know, look, he, I can't see any way that this, uh, slips from his grasp.
I want to ask Paul, I want to ask Paul, what are the odds of Biden carrying Texas?
Walter Dellinger: [00:35:16] It's
Paul Begala: [00:35:16] still less than 50%. I would, if I were advising him, well, actually let me stop. If I were advising Mike Bloomberg and I, I know he listens to this podcast, mr. Bloomberg mayor put a a hundred million dollars in Texas.
You've got 67 billion. You spent like 500 million on your presidential campaign, put 100 million in Texas and you will accelerate its movement to a democratic state, which will revolutionize politics in America. Okay. It is an expensive place. That's the problem. And, and the Democrats, uh, were more compact.
And so you have to advertise in Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, Austin, the four big cities. And that's gruesomely expensive. Mmm. But the, the Democrats are pushing very hard. They're only nine seats flipping from taking over the state house of representatives.
Al Hunt: [00:36:02] And every one of those I'm told that there are nine seats that are Republican held now in that state house that either Beto or Hillary carried
James Carville: [00:36:10] both.
Paul Begala: [00:36:10] Yes. Either, either one or both. Yes. So which gives him a real shot. It does. And this is a sea change. It's, it's hard to really imagine. Um, my son, Billy is 24. And he's now working, uh, in Texas, in democratic politics. Since the day he was born in Texas, no Democrat has won a state wide election. There've been over 180 statewide elections in the last 24 years.
Not a single Democrat has won one, not for a statewide judgeship, not for the state land commissioner, nothing. That is a bit of a trend. But I do think there were, we saw Beto crack it. And I do think that there's a chance that this thing tips in this election cycle because of the combination of, uh, patterns of immigration and college educated, white people in the suburbs, just getting sick of Trump, just the way Keith was talking about.
James Carville: [00:37:02] So I want to get to three of y'all. All of us are always, we're all talk. No, not after I'm clear y'all all the time. And none of you particularly agree with me, but I've had this theory that there's more than just an infinitesimal chance that Trump chooses not to run. He had a horrible night last, last night, and that North Carolina 14th and Kentucky four, which is Eastern Kentucky, which Keith you to know something about Kentucky is that's a hardcore Trump area.
Here's a good candidate lost that primary. So then this morning I'm looking at
Walter Dellinger: [00:37:42] it. Is
James Carville: [00:37:43] it political? There's a Deval County did a poll and it showed that fit symptoms. People didn't want the convention. The Republicans wanted it. The Democrats didn't the independence did
Keith Mason: [00:37:57] Jacksonville,
James Carville: [00:38:00] Jacksonville, Jacksonville.
But the interesting thing in that poll was. which is the bell of all fodder. All right. Trump carried it by 1.3 in 16, which is probably pretty close to this margin. The Sante is favorable was 49. Unfavorable was 49. The Trump unfavorable was 61. I don't know that's how good the pole is, but you got voters really making a distinction.
And I'm sure these are Republican voters making that distinction. I mean the crowd of 6,200 people in Tulsa, I said, well, maybe that didn't mean anything to the pandemic or people get more to go. I think I see his base. It's starting to loosen and loosen fast and I present those three events is evidence of that.
Did y'all find that persuasive? No,
Walter Dellinger: [00:38:58] I think there
Keith Mason: [00:38:59] is a weakening of him down there. Let's do one time down there and, uh, yes, people are worried about that convention coming. And it's also sleeping in up Georgia coast, which is only, you know, 90 miles from okay, Jacksonville anyway, and they'll be out there and people worried and that area is getting more outbreaks.
James Carville: [00:39:21] Paul
Al Hunt: [00:39:21] you think there's there's there's there's there's any real chance that you won't run
Paul Begala: [00:39:25] zero less than zero. If there's a number below zero, I was a liberal arts major, so I don't know, but I just, I mean, James, I love you. The smartest guy. I know there's not a chance what narcissist has ever said this turn off the camera.
He can't, he can't not run. What's he going to do? Spend more time with his family.
James Carville: [00:39:42] Okay. So let's ask increasingly. But he's got, he's got a Wolf
Paul Begala: [00:39:50] by the ears.
James Carville: [00:39:51] Breakups pest. Apartment's
Paul Begala: [00:39:54] not just not
James Carville: [00:39:55] running it's constitutionally. Not sure
Paul Begala: [00:39:57] he's going to dump Mike Pence. It's going to be opposite. Dumped Pence.
You can put Nikki Haley on the ticket. Okay.
James Carville: [00:40:03] He is going to lose so bad, so bad. He's going to right now, the real clear politics average is he's at 41.15 38 is 40.9. His approval is 41. All right. The wrong track is six, seven. He is going to lose by double digits and more than low double digits. And it's becoming a parent and his base is weakening.
And he, the one thing he can't take what his brand is a humiliating defeat of which he is certain to get. And he will figure that out. And he'll say, look, I'll accomplish more in three years in nine months. And Franklin Rose out did 12 years, a Lincoln of George Washington, where I don't give a shit anything.
And I've changed a regulatory assistant, the tax code, immigration laws I've changed the federal judiciary. And the deep state in the fake media, I'm going out and starting a television network and I'm coming back and I'm running it in 2024 because the country is going to find out it can't do it.
Al Hunt: [00:41:15] Well, I, Paul, I think it's, it's, it's greater than zero, but I.
And closer to you than I am to James on this for, for, uh, two simple, for one simple reason. And I guess a couple of weeks ago it was Tim O'Brien. Who said you can never possibly overestimate how self delusional Trump is. I'm not sure he will ever, uh, accept those realities. I think he will probably fire his campaign manager and the next couple of weeks, I think he may, well, as you say, dump Pence for Nikki Haley, but it always will be someone else's fault.
Never has. And, um, I think that'll dry it up on November three and then he'll do the same song with James just saying,
James Carville: [00:41:58] alright, look, he did not look like a man that was delusional. When he walked off of Maureen one, he looked like a man. It just got his ass beat.
Walter Dellinger: [00:42:06] That's true. But he,
James Carville: [00:42:08] he
Paul Begala: [00:42:09] can't quit.
James Carville: [00:42:10] Okay. All right.
Look, I've made a projection. You disagree?
Keith Mason: [00:42:16] I don't think he quits, but I will say this about James Carville and his, uh, intuition. I was with him at the 2008, the democratic convention. And he said that we, that the McCain. Team was gonna throw a hail Mary, they're going to do something creative. That's Allah.
We don't know what it's going to be, but it's going to be, it's going to
Walter Dellinger: [00:42:40] be.
Keith Mason: [00:42:41] Wow. And they, and he, I picked Sarah pilot. I don't think James knew he was gonna pick say Sarah Pailin, but his Hunter
Paul Begala: [00:42:49] was right.
James Carville: [00:42:54] Tell me a favor. Give us a James Carvel invitation. Well, I'll tell you, I
Al Hunt: [00:42:59] got, I gotta get down there.
James Carville: [00:43:02] Paul. I want to, I want to get, I want to get something,
Keith Mason: [00:43:08] but let me tell you something.
Walter Dellinger: [00:43:09] Do
James Carville: [00:43:10] never
Keith Mason: [00:43:10] write a letter,
Paul Begala: [00:43:11] never throw one away. That's
Walter Dellinger: [00:43:13] what we live by.
Keith Mason: [00:43:15] You can't get in trouble for something.
Al Hunt: [00:43:17] That's pretty darn good.
I've got a rival here who was a researcher for James? His book, my son Benjamin. Benjamin. What would James say to you?
James Carville: [00:43:28] Tell me what you gotta, you gotta tell you what to say. I don't know what the hell to say.
Walter Dellinger: [00:43:33] That is
Keith Mason: [00:43:34] spot on.
Al Hunt: [00:43:41] We can do a regular segment every week on this podcast. You know, the
James Carville: [00:43:47] probably if I'm sick one time and just let him be me, you don't know the difference. Probably all of a sudden Benjamin call
Paul Begala: [00:43:56] call into James, does bank Benjamin and say, Hey, this is James cava. I got it. I need you to transfer a hundred thousand dollars to Benjamin hunting discount number.
James Carville: [00:44:14] Okay, listen, I got a
Paul Begala: [00:44:17] thousand dollars. If you could just
James Carville: [00:44:18] get that.
All right,
Al Hunt: [00:44:27] guys, what a way to wrap this up. I want to show you guys are just fabulous guests. And I want all of our audience on November the third look at Gwynedd look forward Ben, uh, because they are going to be leading indicators for two really important States. So thank you guys,
James Carville: [00:44:46] everyone question Paul in your gut.
If we get 56 and 40 down, we wouldn't Texas.
Paul Begala: [00:44:53] I think you got to get like 60. That would make that the windows aligned in the same way it is with Gwinette. You've got to roll it up in the suburbs.
James Carville: [00:45:02] Just watch those two counties, the hell with everything else. Not exit polls, not nothing. Watch. We're not in Fort Valley.
You've got the tip right here. Politics
Al Hunt: [00:45:11] you heard here. You're right. James Gwinette in Fort bend. Listen guys. You were just great. Walter was great. Thank you so much.
James Carville: [00:45:19] Thanks a million.
Walter Dellinger: [00:45:21] Thank you so much. Thanks
Paul Begala: [00:45:23] Al. Thanks James. Thanks, Keith. Your genius and Benjamin. You're about to be a
Keith Mason: [00:45:29] millionaire. The man in the room,
Al Hunt: [00:45:31] he's gone from a hundred thousand to a million.
Alright. I want to thank everybody for listening to 2020 politics war rum. Follow the show on Twitter and politics war room. You can also email I'll take war room@gmail.com. That's politics war room@gmail.com. And if you have a comment question for us, Let us know what you think of the show. Thank you for subscribing.
Uh, tell the mailman about it. Tell your cousins, tell your grandchildren, tell everyone you see, as long as your social distancing, James. Uh, this was really quite a show. Gosh,
James Carville: [00:46:09] it really was all the time. .