James Lankford on the State of Lincoln's Party and Matt Bai on the Truth about Trumpism
The prevailing belief of the day may be that the Republican Party has sold its soul to the devil and a Democratic victory in November is America's only hope for salvation. But Oklahoma Senator James Lankford begs to differ, asserting that his colleagues in Congress have made efforts to ensure rule of law and equality for all, including introducing police reform and voting protection measures. At the same time, journalist Matt Bai ("All The Truth Is Out: The Week Politics Went Tabloid") argues that by valuing urbanity over all else, the Democrats loosen their connection to some of the most important voters in the country, allowing Trumpism to take hold.
Show Notes:
00:00 – Intro
01:15 – Putin's many plots
08:00 – The GOP contains multitudes
14:30 – The needs of the USPS
23:00 – Is the president a racist?
29:30 – Looking back at 2016
39:45 – Metropolitan triumphalism at its worst
45:00 – Lessons to take from 2018
49:30 – This presidency's morality test
54:30 – A 28 point turnaround
Transcript:
Al Hunt: [00:00:00] Hello, and welcome to 2020 politics war rum with James Carville and I'm Al hunt. We are proud partners for the sign Institute at American university here in the nation's Capitol. I'm at home. James is in the Shenandoah. We have some terrific guests, but first we appreciate all those. Who have made the effort to click that subscribe button on your phone or computer.
You see a bunch of new people finding us an Apple podcast, Spotify, Stitcher, or wherever you listen to your podcast. So let's keep up as George H w Bush used to say the big Mo I want to welcome Senator James Lankford with us. He's the junior United States Senator from Oklahoma, a true blue conservative also.
An independent linker.
James Carville: [00:00:48] He grew up
Al Hunt: [00:00:49] rather poor single mother after college, which is the unit university of Texas. He went to seminary. He was a leader of Christian youth organizations before he was elected to Congress 10 years ago. Senator, if I were still on the Kennedy library profile and courage committee, I would nominate you to come on a program with two old hacks like Carville and may, but we really do
Sen. James Lankford: [00:01:10] thank you very much.
I appreciate that. Hopefully it's not a profiling courage. Yeah, we'll come hang out with the two of you.
Matt Bai: [00:01:17] It'll, it'll
Al Hunt: [00:01:18] be fun. I assure you, this is not the way I plan to start. Uh, but, but we, this, this story, uh, about the AF Russians paying the Afghans bounties, uh, to kill American. Um, soldiers it's it's, it's coming from the best sources, the best reporters I know on the New York times it's been confirmed by, by some of the Afghans.
Uh, well, it's, uh, it's a dreadful story. What should it be John about who should be held accountable?
Sen. James Lankford: [00:01:46] Well, it's something we faced a militarily, uh, multiple times, uh, the Iranians in general, Soleimani. I mean, for years I was paying bounties to Iraqis was providing support to be able to kill American troops in Iraq.
Obviously, president Trump delivered him a gift after several years of him attacking American soldiers and paying bounties on American soldiers in Iraq by eliminating Solemani a few months ago, uh, the Russians. Uh, have done undercutting for a while, paying the salary of Taliban folks, trying to be able to support Taliban, just to be able to undercut what's happening.
Uh, now there's this whole statement about the they've gone beyond just paying the salaries of the Taliban. Folks now are actually paying them a bounty. If they actually do an assault now, as you have written multiple places. The intelligence community has not been 100% on this, whether that money was actually being funneled by arms dealers, uh, in Russia, where that money was just being funneled to the Taliban, just to be able to undercut we're paying some specific bounty to be able to kill Americans.
The result is the same. Americans are in a more dangerous location in Afghanistan already than it is with Russia, trying to be able to undercut. So I think clear statement, clear, clear statements to get out there.
Al Hunt: [00:02:56] Yeah, you're absolutely right, but there's, you know, it clearly occurred. It's impossible to think that the Russian drug dealers would have done it without the Russian government, uh, knowing about it.
That's the way Putin operates. But president Trump says he didn't know about it. How could that possibly be? It was in the February 27th, daily intelligence brief.
Sen. James Lankford: [00:03:14] Well, so I would, I would say that when you go through the intelligence briefings on that and I've been through quite a few of those, uh, they'll, there'll be a hundred.
200 pages on topics all over the world, there'll be multiple different issues. And then there'll also be a level of a, of a understanding. This is a low probability. We have a medium probability. We have a high probability. This is accurate. Intelligence is not always, Hey, we have a direct line and we've tapped into their phone and we heard them say this.
Sometimes it is a guest they're tracking the movement of dollars saying dollars are moving here. Arms are moving here. We think this is what's occurring. Uh, but so some of that's not as clean as it looks. And I would say you're going through the intelligence documents on that, that I have. It's not as easy as to be able to say there's one page, one day of the 100 pages that could have been read that day.
And didn't you notice that one line, that one sentence that said low probability, but we think this might've been there. It's not always that clean.
Al Hunt: [00:04:07] So you don't think the president Trump might have known about whether it's high grade or medium grade and intelligence report that said the Russians were paying to have American soldiers killed?
Sen. James Lankford: [00:04:19] I think he could have known I, again, I don't know what's in the president's daily briefing everyday to be able to go through it. I think he could have known. Uh, but the question is, uh, what, what is it that they knew? And they were suspecting as they go through. January February, March, April, may through this year, when they're tracking the movement of money, when they're tracking the moon, is this the same as it has been?
Is this something different? Is there a suspicion? It is this or that end of the day. What's, what's what everybody's leaving out on this. All of those intelligence reports related to that, we're all getting to the leadership and the officers in Afghanistan to say, Hey, there is this thread that says. This.
So be aware as you're going out on your combat missions already, you're already taking special care, but be aware. We think the Russians might also be doing this so pay extra special attention that was getting to all the folks on the ground. So there's just all this debate about whether president Trump had it, whether he saw it.
I think some of that is a political back and forth to say, president Trump doesn't care about your kids that are in the military. So you should be afraid of him as a commander in chief. But the chain of command, what was actually happening with those documents were getting to the right people. We're getting to the right places.
They were taking the measures that were needed one way or the other.
Al Hunt: [00:05:28] Well, I'm going to turn over to James, but,
Matt Bai: [00:05:30] but yeah,
Al Hunt: [00:05:30] that's right. That's important. It goes to the commanders, but this was also about Putin. Uh, and, and, and if the president knew about this, shouldn't he have said he not invite Putin to join the not make friendly gestures to Vladimir Putin, but say, Hey, you thug.
Uh, you know, we are going to retaliate against you for this. I mean, as you pointed out, we wiped out Solomon because he did it now. I'm not suggesting that we ought to be wiping out Putin, but we surely shouldn't be friendly to him. Should we.
Sen. James Lankford: [00:06:01] No, we shouldn't put, Putin's not our ally. Uh, and, and hasn't been for 20 years, uh, as much as every American presidents try to do, be able to reach out and establish some kind of relationship with boudin.
Uh, he is still his former KGB self and is a dictator for life and is changing the constitution, uh, to be able to make sure he continues to be able to control everything in Russia for the rest of his life. There are significant sanctions. I've been placed on him in 2017, uh, 2017, 2018, uh, sanctions that have been added on to Putin and all the folks around him, uh, back being away from the open skies.
Uh, that was a really significant event that I think a lot of people didn't notice. There was an ongoing treaty. That's happened with Russia for a long time. That just a couple of months ago, the, uh, president Trump said we're leaving the open sky street because it allowed Russians to be able to come to the United States freely move to the United States, fly over the United States, gather intelligence here, and also allowed Americans to do that in Russia.
But we don't need that. We don't need what the Russians need access to be able to gather data, their satellites aren't as adept as ours. And so when president Trump said, Russia is a problem and we're backing away from the open sky street, that was a really significant moment, uh, to push back on the spying efforts of Russia.
And that was just two months ago. So there have been actions to take, to be a pushback on food.
Al Hunt: [00:07:18] Yeah. There had been, I wish he sounded more like you and Putin because he has been awful buddy, buddy with Latin mayor Putin, but let me turn it over to James.
James Carville: [00:07:25] Hey sir, that's a real pleasure to have you on here.
And I got up. A lot of democratic friends and not very many of them in Oklahoma is a Hardy bunch of little turpentine and cliff Hudson.
Sen. James Lankford: [00:07:33] And
James Carville: [00:07:34] do it price, George Kaiser.
Sen. James Lankford: [00:07:36] Those are all great folks. Actually, those are great Oklahomans that you named there.
James Carville: [00:07:40] They are, they, and they're all good Democrats. And I'm really, I really love going.
I love going to Tulsa. I think there's more to. Most under appreciated cities in the United States. I really do. I mean, cultural change Harrisburg.
Sen. James Lankford: [00:07:52] It is amazing in the most beautiful park in America is there it's called the gathering place right in the middle. It's also, and a lot of folks are shocked when they get to that community park.
That's there, but it is, it is a beautiful city, great
James Carville: [00:08:04] baseball stadium to a really good baseball stadium. So, yeah. And I'm going to ask myself a question. And when I asked you, you were just saying question about your party, James, what happens if the Democrats lose in November, I'll tell you what's going to happen.
We will disintegrate. It will just be we'll become factions. The democratic party will sounded great. Let's assume the Republican party loses in November. It strikes me in a reason that I wanted to have yours. I don't think there's much difference ideologically between you and. Most of the people in your caucus, but I do sense there's a tone difference.
And do you think this whole tonal message that seems to come out of the Republican party of the
Matt Bai: [00:08:52] day? Don't
James Carville: [00:08:54] you think that that's not very advantageous that we could learn to talk nicer, teach off?
Sen. James Lankford: [00:09:01] Good learn to talk nicer to each other. But what's interesting is if you were to read through my Twitter feed or through my Facebook page and the comments that are, there are some of the folks on the left and some of the things that they write and say about me.
Uh, it is remarkably sad, uh, to be able to see how bitter and vitriolic it can really be. So the, the tone across the country and what you hear me say a lot in Oklahoma is we really need a lot more water on the fire. Yeah. And we need gasoline right now. Uh, but it seems like both sides are trying to find ways to be able to drop gasoline.
My staff and I are trying to find ways to say, how can we build water on this fire to say, let, let's get back to talking to each other and less theater.
James Carville: [00:09:39] Just so, you know, the left hates me to Bernie. The extreme left hates me is more than you all right. Just may not get the same thing, but they're not, you're not in power.
They're not in public office. Right. There's just people out there screaming. Right?
Sen. James Lankford: [00:09:53] Well, at the same thing, we, when, when Tim Scott and I came and brought the, uh, police reform, uh, bill, uh, the justice act last week, which was an honest work. That we've spent several weeks trying to be able to pull together, gathering lots of ideas, to be able to say, how can we really make real progress in police reform?
That was greeted by one of my Senate colleagues on the left, coming to the floor and saying it was just whistling out to our bigoted base, uh, was, uh, was his whole impression of it. And I thought, okay, this is exceptionally sad that you're trying to be able to brush aside and say, every one of those Republicans are racist.
So why would they possibly want to do anything on police reform? That kind of rhetoric just doesn't help us.
James Carville: [00:10:33] I don't think you're racist. Were you surprised by the vote last night in Oklahoma?
Sen. James Lankford: [00:10:37] No. The only thing I was surprised by there was a, what we had state question eight Oh two, which, uh, did the expansion of Medicaid.
Uh, it passed by less than 1% in the state that's passed, overwhelmingly in every other state, but it passed by less than one year.
James Carville: [00:10:51] You know, if you want a football game, 28 to 27, you still win the game. I mean, I know now we reached, well, it didn't, it only got 50.5. You live in a democracy.
Sen. James Lankford: [00:11:02] I know, but, but when you're Oklahoma and they're the home of the university of Oklahoma, they're used to winning by 30 or 40 every time.
James Carville: [00:11:08] I don't think they did that well against LSU in December. Oh, here we go.
Al Hunt: [00:11:15] Parochial politics. Yeah, but Senator pick up on James's question was that, was it, it still was the 37 state to expand Medicaid, uh, at the same time that the Trump administration is saying let's throw out the entire affordable healthcare act.
Sen. James Lankford: [00:11:30] Yeah, they are there. They're walking through their process legally and trying to be able to challenging coming from the Texas challenge, actually, and trying to say there's a better way to do this. And if we have an opportunity to sit down both parties and to be able to resolve this, especially in a divided government, both parties could sit down and be able to solve some of the things.
There's still quite a few areas on prescription drug expansion and everything else, and trying to be able to solve some of those cost areas where we think there's wide bipartisan support and we should be able to move on, but it's still the hope to be there. It gets most things done, but you have the state, the state did expand Medicaid, and that was a major vote.
Obviously it's something that a lot of our hospitals that put a lot of money into being able to promote and say, we'll do that's 200,000 people in the state will have access. So that Medicaid expansion and, uh, we'll see where that goes.
James Carville: [00:12:14] So your background is very theological. He went to really good seminary.
I read about, and you've been involved in a church for the actively it probably all your life, correct?
Sen. James Lankford: [00:12:25] Yes, sir. I have actually, and
James Carville: [00:12:27] still am and religious Liberty is something that is an issue that you've been very active on.
Sen. James Lankford: [00:12:34] Yes, sir.
James Carville: [00:12:35] It did the boating. If it was true, what he said about Trump and we go on Muslims in Western China, I've heard a lot of religious people kind of say, wait a minute.
I don't think that's a very good idea. Did that cause you concern
Sen. James Lankford: [00:12:54] Scotsmen concern, only that I'm trying to figure out what actually was said there and what was actually done because when I've interacted with my Pompeo, that's not what I'm getting. I'm not getting that as an official position from the administration.
I'm certainly not getting that on the trade issues and back and forth with our trade representatives. Uh, the folks that were in the room, uh, as to use a bolt term on their Bolton says, that's what was said. And it seems like no one else was saying that's what was said. End of the day, I'm looking at the policies.
We have got to stand up for religious Liberty and the Muslim weekers in China included they can not be isolated. The actions taken today even to be able to identify what products are coming into the United States from China that are used by forced labor. Uh, many of those areas are used by forced labor are being used by labor camps by the weekers.
And so some of the actions that the administration took today to be able to confiscate those products and to say to the Chinese. We're no longer going to accept your products that are done, which force labor done by the weekers. Then that's a good step. So the actions are good on that. Uh, any statement though that says to anyone that human rights, any human rights, uh, including, uh, religious Liberty, uh, we should push back on
James Carville: [00:14:02] our long horn, right?
Sen. James Lankford: [00:14:04] Yes, sir.
James Carville: [00:14:05] Where do you sit in the red river shootout?
Sen. James Lankford: [00:14:08] I stood at home. Uh, with my blinds closed and in the comfort of my own home.
James Carville: [00:14:16] What about the bedroom
Sen. James Lankford: [00:14:17] boat? No, I, I, I am, I'm strongly in the Oklahoma state side. My daughter is a student at Oklahoma state and my money, uh, is definitely they go into OSU. And so I'm definitely cheering OSU as well.
Al Hunt: [00:14:27] Good. I thought I, James, I thought maybe if the, at the, at the OU Texas game, he could be like the president of United States that on one side for the first half of the other, for the second half.
Sen. James Lankford: [00:14:36] Yeah, the army Navy game. He does the same thing with the commander in chief switch aside.
Al Hunt: [00:14:41] Yes. Yes. Yes, exactly.
Senator, let me, let me switch the subject for a second and we'll come back to Jamie. Uh, you have been very supportive of voting, uh, reform. Uh, we have a pandemic voting is going to be harder, uh, potentially than ever, uh, this November. Uh, you're going to have a relief package and other relief package coming up sometime this month.
Are you going to support, I guess it's up to $2 billion to give to the. States to try to help with mail voting and other problems that have been in Canada and Wisconsin, Georgia, and Kentucky. And also, I think the post office needs about $25 billion that will affect male voting. Are you going to,
Sen. James Lankford: [00:15:20] yeah, so yeah, the know the, the, the post office asked for 25 billion immediately at the beginning of the coronavirus epidemic going all the way back to February and March.
Uh, when it first started launching out there and then they said, we're desks, we're gonna need that. We're not going to survive, but what's actually occurred. Is. People are at home. So they're ordering more products and they're getting a lot more packages. Just packages are one of the best income pieces for the post office.
The post office loss has not been close to what they estimate at the very beginning. Now there are other issues. With the post office we got to resolve, uh, but the 25 billion number that they threw out in March to proved not actually to be true is a good estimate of what the real needs were on it longterm.
Al Hunt: [00:15:58] But you agree, they need, you agree. They need money to, to, to, to have a feasible male vote, uh, this, uh, October.
Sen. James Lankford: [00:16:06] Oh yeah. They're they're they're they're going to need support ongoing. Now, I don't know if there's going to have to be this calendar year where they're going to need additional dollars. We're still trying to be able to track what the need is, but the post office is not going to shut down.
And the Congress is not gonna allow the post office to be able to shut down. That's a basic function of government. You've got to be able to maintain the ongoing arguments, really been on how to be able to handle their free payments to them or pension plans. That's been the biggest challenge for the longest time.
I had to be able to accomplish all that, but that's a whole different technical issue when you get into the voting side of it. Absolutely. Uh, we've gotta be able to do this as something Amy Klobuchar and I worked on a long time on how do you actually resolve some of the different issues? On voting and we think there are some pretty practical ways be able to do it.
Here's the, here's the funny part though, if you go back 15 years ago and 20 years ago, even a $1, right. Or given out, uh, after the famous 2001, uh, hanging CHADS, whole debacle, uh, you go back to all that time. There was the Hava funds, what they were called at that point, uh, to be able to get money to the States, to be able, help them when they're voting.
Many of the States have never used all of those funds. The second round of funds that were given, I've not used all of those. We have several States that still have 80% of the money. They've actually said that, thank you very much from the government, from the federal. Yeah. They've deposited in their state accounts.
They've just gained interest on it, but they've never actually spent it for any election responsibilities with the same thing two years ago, when we allocated about $250 million to the States, and then we did another round of money. In the care Zack that went to the States, uh, for, uh, election, most of those funds have not even been tapped yet.
So there's quite, there's a bit of money that is out there. That's literally sitting in accounts. And some States will say, we want you to continue to send us more, but the vast majority of States haven't even tapped in close to what they've already been allocated already.
Al Hunt: [00:17:53] So does that mean you won't support to $2 billion more in this next bill?
Sen. James Lankford: [00:17:58] So far, I'd like to see them spend what they already have, uh, rather than to say they want more and more and more at this point. Because again, if st just say, give us more money that we're going to deposit into an account and gain interest on it and we will someday use it for election security. That's totally different.
Now, if they're going to actually use it and it's going to be functional for that, that's a different issue. And if they need it, but remember elections are uniquely state responsibility. Every state has the responsibility to be able to, uh, use, uh, maintain their own elections, uh, and to be able to manage their elections, the federal government steps in and says, we want to make sure that they're fair and we'll make sure they're regarding voting rights and such.
But the state has a responsibility to be able to do elections, just like that, the responsibility to mow the grass, the governance
James Carville: [00:18:42] stand up word to describe the States right now broke. I mean, it's just the revenue coming in and expanded it. Regina, Oklahoma, we went to, we're having to pay in a virus and we'll be blackened in revenue coming in.
And I mean, this is where, in my opinion, it's about, we need a federal government. To give these stakes to support their need, whether you had an election in Oklahoma last night, from what I read it turned out was actually pretty high. He, there was nobody, no voting irregularities we'll report it. I watched the election returns come in and we had an election.
It was a close election, one side, one, the other one lost, but it seemed to have been fairly. Barely conducted as best I can to help.
Sen. James Lankford: [00:19:23] So here here's John's that I have with that, James is that I absolutely agree, like elect we've had election in Oklahoma and we've gone through that process. We, we spent the money to be able to do it.
Uh, and what I, what I'm frustrated with is you'll have. Let's say 46 States that will run their election and then you'll have three, four or so States they'll come back and say, we can't run our election. We desperately need federal help. A new New Jersey is notorious for saying we don't have any money when right next to the new York's figuring it out.
And they're doing it in New Jersey. Can't seem to be able to solve it. Some of those things are state issues to say, they've got to be able to resolve it. And I always get frustrated when 30 or 40 States can figure out how to do it in 10 of them. Come back and say that there's no way we can possibly do it unless the 30 or 40 States have figured it out, pay us to do ours.
So there, there is, there is a good balance there,
James Carville: [00:20:10] it seems like the state of Georgia has a particularly difficult time conducting a fair election. And my point is somebody was going to say, you know, we can drink Pepsi and fly American airlines. I mean the business community in Georgia has got to walk into that secretary of state and say, look, the right to vote is fundamental to everything.
And this idea of putting two voting machines for every 5,000 people and floating into a cab and 50 voting machines to every 500 people in Northwest Georgia, I didn't violates the 14th and 15th amendment.
Sen. James Lankford: [00:20:46] They've got a fair election. They've got to have access to it. Again. Everybody talks about this during COVID time period, you go back to April at the height of the COVID outbreak in South Korea, they had an election in South Korea and in-person election, South Korea, and had the highest turnout that they've had in 20, some odd years.
So it can be done. Uh, our state did it. People were in mass people putting a plexiglass and doing special protection for all those older volunteers. That helps us in our polling places. There are ways to do it. You just got to pay attention to it and have good leadership to think ahead.
James Carville: [00:21:17] Am I correct that you do support wearing a mask?
I think I saw you
Sen. James Lankford: [00:21:20] say that. I do. In fact, I was at that at the Trump rally and it's also when he was there, I was there and I was wearing a mask there as well
Al Hunt: [00:21:27] to wrap up the voting thing. Do you agree that mail fraud, uh, voting is really, uh, infant decimal rare, not a big problem.
Sen. James Lankford: [00:21:36] So yeah, I'm going to, I'm going to struggle with one issue on the absentee on the mail fraud.
And that is, I do get frustrated with the potential of what's happening in California with ballot harvesting. Uh, if you have the potential that someone can come by your door and say, you want to vote absentee, we'll sign you up right now. Then they'll come back a week later and say, have you got your ballot?
We'll help you fill it out right now. And we'll go turn it in. There's a lot yeah. Of opportunities for fraud there. And you can say, well, gosh, we don't have any proof of it. There's just a lot of opportunities for fraud in situations like that. And a lot of people got furious. Uh, about a, a, a primary election in North Carolina when ballot harvesting happened.
Cause ballot harvesting is not legal in North Carolina and a consultant was doing it there, but it's legal in California to do right now. So the absentee ballot, unless you've got some way to verify, that's my vote. And I turned it in and that's me, which is what we do in Oakland. You've got to turn in, it's gotta be notarized.
Or right now you've got to turn it in with a copy of your driver's or a copy of some bill, something that has your name on it. Uh, to be able to verify this is really metering this in a, you've got plenty of opportunity for fraud and it's hard to be able to track and prove
Al Hunt: [00:22:39] it course, they caught that person in North Carolina and most other cases of fraud they've caught.
They'd been very few, but,
Sen. James Lankford: [00:22:45] but, but the situation in North Carolina and that what they were doing in North Carolina is legal in California right now. And that's what I'm concerned about. And that state law, you can do ballot harvesting in California and our one site yet. That's just fine. Uh, but that, that, that is an issue because it does open you up for a lot of opportunities for
James Carville: [00:23:02] fraud.
Well, they should bring the California secretary of state and hold them, have a hearing and ask her or him, whoever it is. But you know, it's a sovereign state.
Sen. James Lankford: [00:23:16] Correct. And they make their own voting rules, just like every other state
James Carville: [00:23:20] they're looking for money. You should call them in and say, what do you do?
What is the provision in California law? As I understand it, you can ballot Hawks and. I think that would be no one would complain about that and let that person, whoever she, or he might be, explain why elections in California or basically,
but let's dump the pride, you know, to the extent we can given a unique situations, we handed to the exemplary Canada, everything I've seen familiar, Grifters principles is many people. Is one of both should be able to vote and have their booth counted accurately and
Sen. James Lankford: [00:24:03] fairly 100% ag absolutely agree in, in Oklahoma.
We've had for a long time. Just N no, excuse absentee. If you want to do Malin, they'll mail you a ballot and you send it back. No excuses on that in person absentee, uh, in advance of the election that we want to have as many people vote. As possibly one of those and, uh, that, that gives them the opportunity to be able to do it in multiple different hooks in the water to be able to go get it done.
Al Hunt: [00:24:26] Senator, you have been Greg, let me ask you one final question. I not only know that you're not a racist. I think your whole public life has been one of inclusiveness. Uh, your colleagues, it just is quite clear. It's uh, you know, and there's a number of your colleagues, Tim Scott, for sure. But there are lots of other Republicans who certainly are not racist, but when you say we're the party of Lincoln with Donald Trump, And Charlottesville and what he's done after the George Floyd incident and the Kung flu, and just one case after another, as long as Donald Trump is your leader.
Isn't it hard to say that you're the party of Lincoln.
Sen. James Lankford: [00:25:05] Uh, it's not hard for me to say that because I come back to the basic principle that Lincoln was all about and it's opportunity and access for everybody. Neuro I'd be treated the same. It's a, it's a biblical principle for me going all the way back to Deuteronomy 25 of equal weights and measures.
Everybody has to be treated the same. Equally rich poor, no matter what ratio are, don't want to have a background in art. Even if you're from Louisiana, you should be treated fairly
James Carville: [00:25:31] that's fair, but that's okay.
Sen. James Lankford: [00:25:35] That's a basic principle and it's certainly an American, right? And it's something I am proud to be an RT party. That was, uh, you know, the, the overwhelming votes in, in the 1960s for civil rights were Republican votes in the house and Senate Democrat precedent. Uh, that was entirely right.
To be able to push that and to be able to do that. It's entirely right for Lincoln. I'd be able to do it. I think we've gotta be able to continue to engage on this. That's why even the police reform thing became so frustrating to be able to go through the justice act because there are very legitimate reforms there.
And for people just brush it aside and say, you know, those are Republicans, they're all racist. So we're not going to listen to anything they're going to say ignores both the reality, what that bill really was and how strong that reform really is, it's proposed and it denies the American people an opportunity to be able to go through and solve a problem.
My fear is if you're going to be used as a political piece during the campaign, rather than actually solving a problem, when we had a moment to solve an issue that everyone sees, this problem
Al Hunt: [00:26:29] is unfair. Don't you also think that it's unfair some of the, many of the racist things that Donald Trump has said?
Sen. James Lankford: [00:26:36] I don't, I don't think he's, I don't think he's a racist. And I think we, he and I had some conversations about some of his words. I don't like some of the words that he uses. I don't think he has heart and his intent is to be there. I still think he's careful in his speech. And I think you should be as the president of the United States.
And you should be more careful in the words you say, because you're the presence, every single American from every single background, uh, and that's such important. I represent all 4 million Oklahomans. Every background, every economic, every race I represent everybody. We don't agree on every single issue and that's fine, but I should respect every single person and their opinions and let them be heard.
And I, and the present, it's just not good at doing that. That's just not the same. Yeah.
Al Hunt: [00:27:12] James, you have a final thought.
James Carville: [00:27:14] So, okay. My favorite on the way out here, my favorite Lincoln story is he was given a speech and a moment stand up and sit and accused him of being to face. You said, lady, let me ask you something.
You think if I had another face, I wouldn't use
Sen. James Lankford: [00:27:27] it.
James Carville: [00:27:31] So, Hey, just keep that one in your backpack.
Sen. James Lankford: [00:27:36] I'll do that. I'll do that. I can store that with all the will Rogers jokes that I've got stored in my back pocket already being from Oklahoma.
James Carville: [00:27:42] What do you best about the democratic party album?
Sen. James Lankford: [00:27:45] Yeah. Yeah. Will, will Rogers still had the greatest, greatest statement ever when he said I don't belong to any organized political party on the day?
James Carville: [00:27:52] So the great Woody Guthrie, the national Anthem of the left wing is this land. Came out of Oklahoma.
Sen. James Lankford: [00:28:01] That's exactly right.
Al Hunt: [00:28:02] There are a lot of good things that come out of Oklahoma and of Texas Senator. You have been so interesting, so many interesting things. I, I'm not sure the lead though might not be that in the O U Texas game.
Uh, James Lankford stays at home with the blinds closed.
I want to thank you. And I want to thank your, your press secretary, particularly for being so good. You've been a delightful guest and I hope sometime you'll come back.
Sen. James Lankford: [00:28:27] Well, I look forward to the conversation. Thanks for letting me join in.
Al Hunt: [00:28:37] Let's bring Matt buy into this. Matt is one of the most perceptive political writers in America.
James Carville: [00:28:43] Now a contributing editor for the Washington
Al Hunt: [00:28:45] post. He was chief political correspondent for the New York times, Sunday magazine and national political correspondent for Yahoo news, a screenwriter, James. And an author of a great book when politics went tabloid most important of all, he is married to the great
So I want to say, uh, it's terrific to have the second best member of the family. Matt.
Matt Bai: [00:29:08] Thank you. It's great to be with you guys actually, before I came in here, Alan said, tell, tell Al I said, Hey, so you gave me an opportunity. She just sent us, although she's busy working away as always.
Al Hunt: [00:29:16] James. This is inside baseball, Ellen and I worked together.
She ran Bloomberg television. She's just one. Terrific.
James Carville: [00:29:22] I will show is about inside baseball, right? It is. It's an out of the show out inside of any race to be at the inside as you want.
Al Hunt: [00:29:30] Well, speaking of inside Matt, you wrote an important column that James and I really were struck by that said, uh, about 10 days ago, how Democrats misread.
How Trump won in 2016 and the 2020 is not 2016. Explain.
Matt Bai: [00:29:47] Sure. Well, uh, you know, I'm thrilled, you read it and you know, it's an honor for me to be on with you guys and nice you to say all that stuff. I've I've admired you both forever. Of course. So it's a it's. Anytime I can help. I'm happy to we're a little boy since I was eight now, but I know there was definitely a time when I was thrilled to be, we returned my call.
So I'm thrilled to be here. Um, you know, look, I just, I, you know, I re let's start it this way. Right. I remember being on, I was on the set at Yahoo on election night, 2016. And you guys were probably on sets of your own and, and, uh, you know, I was with Katie, correct. We were getting the exit poll data. And the data struck me.
I mean, it told a story of what was happening in that election. And I feel like very
James Carville: [00:30:33] soon after
Matt Bai: [00:30:33] that story was just buried and distorted. Uh, and we've heard for years now, this idea about Trump and the movement he created and how he came out of nowhere and what a powerful force he is in American politics.
And, um, I just never, I mean, that, that the data from 2016 was clear then, and it's clear now and nothing has changed it. And what it tells you is, uh, Hillary Clinton was an extraordinarily unpopular candidate outside of core Democrats that a large number of people, even though majority thought she was qualified to be president and had the temperament to be president.
And majority felt the opposite about Donald Trump. His margin of victory came from a slice of the electorate. I don't know. It's hard to quantify it. It might be 10, 12%, uh, of the electric who were, uh, independence and, and moderate conservatives who decided they'd rather take a flyer on a guy who they didn't like and didn't think would be a good president and didn't think would win the presidency.
Uh, then vote for Hillary Clinton. And at the end of the day, that was his margin of victory. In a lot of these States, there was never any groundswell for Trumpism. If you looked at it, as I did in the column about two States in particular, Florida and Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania is a great example. A strong majority of voters in Pennsylvania.
I think it was 60%, 60 odd percent thought Donald Trump did not have the temperament to be president, which is an astounding thing to say. He won the state by a single percentage point 21, a fully, a fifth of the voters. If you believe the exit polling. And I do because it's very consistent, fully a fifth of the voters.
Who said that about Donald Trump voted for him anyway, and we can take guesses about, did they think he was going to lose? Did they think maybe he'd be a different guy when he, I got into office. I think there are. I think it depends on the voter. I don't think it's monolithic. But it, what it tells you is that, is it his, that was his highest watermark in American politics.
And it was almost a circle. It was almost certainly more than anything, a reflection on his opponent. After that he lost independence almost immediately. Ratings have never gotten out of the low forties. He got destroyed in the midterm elections. Um, and so every indication we have is that he, he should not have won in 2016.
And I don't think it's a it's it's, it's, it's accurate to look at this election and say, well, look at last time he came out of nowhere. His support was so understated. I don't believe it was.
Al Hunt: [00:33:00] Let me just give you one thing that I think I'm a test to that Gallup found last time, there were 14% of the voters who didn't like Trump and Clinton.
They thought both were bad. And of those 69% voted for Trump. When you think about it, that's logical. Hey, I think they're both bad. What the hell? Let's go with a new guy. At least it'll be different. Uh, they're what surely Sherry boosters, this called the Trump triers. There was this, there was one survey. I forget where it was that had a, I don't know, 10, 12, 13% who said they didn't like Biden or Trump now.
And they go overwhelmingly for Biden, which also is logical. I'm not really crazy about either one, but what the hell? I can't take four years of this guy. I think that really just, it just confirms the point you're making about how different this election is.
Matt Bai: [00:33:47] Well, and also it's, it's a little bit, right?
It's it's. It's the devil, you know, and the devil you don't know in some, in an election like that. Right. And, and I think, you know, look, I'll put myself in this category and I don't know, I don't know. I don't know what you guys thought, but I certainly, you know, I'd followed Trump for a long time. I'd met him in the nineties when he was first looking at an independent run for the presidency.
I did not rule out the possibility that he would. Uh, change, you know, that, that he would actually come into office and try to take it seriously and try it. That'd be more bipartisan. I mean, Trump's a guy who, who, uh, who can change very quickly depending on the audience. And he'd been a very different kind of political figure in the nineties.
Then he ran as in 2016. So I certainly, I didn't think it was likely. But I think a lot of voters probably felt like me that we don't know what we're going to get with this guy. And they felt that they knew what they were getting from Hillary Clinton and you know, what, what they got immediately, I think confirmed their worst fears about this president.
And that's why his approval ratings are where they are. I mean, I w I was, I'll just say, as an aside, I was stunned, not stunned. I've heard it so often now, but to listen to Senator Lankford, who as you guys said is so articulate, talking about. President Trump would say, look, I don't think he's a racist. I mean, look, I, I don't throw that we're around very easily.
I think there's, you know, I think it's way too easy to brand people racist and dismissed with them. You're saying, but if Donald Trump, as president is not a racist, then are we defining a racist in America as only somebody who wears a hood as only somebody who uses racial epithets? I mean, His entire stance of his administration right now is, is, is effectively based on racial division.
He's about to veto the United States defense budget because he wants to launch a defense of the Confederacy. I mean, I mean, I don't know, I don't know how Senator Lankford defines it, but I think I know how most Americans define it. And I think that's why his approval rating isn't going anywhere but
James Carville: [00:35:37] down.
All right. What else could he say, Matt, let me try something on you. So there's just narrative is that
Matt Bai: [00:35:54] cop was
James Carville: [00:35:55] kind of cruising along, had a, almost $30,000, 3.4%. Unemployment was kind of good position to be reelected. Then COVID-19 came in. And exposed his weaknesses and now he isn't having a chance to be a Relic.
Alright, that's bullshit.
Matt Bai: [00:36:18] He
James Carville: [00:36:18] was going to lose in January. Once the Bernie Sanders threat was removed from the democratic party, he was doomed. You can go back and you can look at the data and these narratives become, you just hear them. And it was just like the same thing about, Oh, he was a brilliant politician.
He, he came from nowhere to polling was all off. No one can pull any more bullshit to Poland averages work a little too much for Hillary. It probably broke his way, 1% and against her 1% in a few States. But, but this is not, he was not going to win in January and no one. Goes back and looks at TAC. You can go look at five 30, eight real clear politics who was actually stronger at one point during the beginning of the pandemic, but people didn't want to return him.
Look at the 2018 election. Everybody forgets about it. No, and it wasn't typical Orfield elections to turn out was extraordinarily high I'm Devin rejecting discussions. The night he got in office. That's my opinion. Anyway, you have a different deal. I mean,
Matt Bai: [00:37:36] no, I do think it was always going to be a very uphill fight for him to get reelected.
I mean, certainly if you had a strong economy and peace and things are going well in the country and people are confident, you'd have a, you'd have a better shot. Uh, so I don't, I don't think he was, I don't, I wouldn't say he had no, he didn't have a chance to be relaxed, but I thought it was always going to be much more difficult for him.
I think American voters is my own theory about it. Right. And this is based purely on observation than watching it, you know, a long time as you guys have. I think American voters really don't like it, chaos and unpredictability. I think there's a real fatigue to that. I've been surprised at how resilient even his low approval ratings have been over time because of that.
And I think it's hard to get reelected when people feel like they wake up in the morning and they don't know what they're going to see. I think the electric tends to shy away from that. So I always thought he was going to have a pretty tough time and I don't think he really gets a ton of credit for the economy and all of that because he's, so the nature of his presidency is such an outsider presidency.
It's pretty hard to claim credit on, on a policy level. I will say though, James and I said this in the column, you know, I, I don't, I won't sit here today and say he can't when, I mean, first of all, uh, Because I've seen too many elections, you know, as you have, and things, a bunch of things are going to happen.
We don't see common between now and November. Uh, I don't think he can win, but also, you know, Democrats have something to do with this. And the one thing Trump really wants, and it's why he's doing all this stuff right now is he wants a culture war. The one way he wins is if this election becomes about white America versus everybody else he's standing between white America and a mob that that can actually, um, Resonate for him.
And to the extent that the democratic party wants to make this an indictment of, of rural America and white America is as, as you know, James, better than anybody from having run the Clinton campaigns. You know, that, that, that is a formula for a much closer election than this ought to be. And then, and I think Biden is too smart to get dragged into that.
I think his answers on that have been really good, but it still exists
James Carville: [00:39:39] and you're right. Just metropolitan triumphalism. Artist, urban cultural. There's a guy that writes editorial. So the New York times. All right. His name is Ben. You're mine. Apple box.
Matt Bai: [00:39:52] Yeah, I know. I used to sit next to him. Right.
James Carville: [00:39:55] So LSU played Clemson in the championship game, in new Orleans soda, president of LA chute.
There's a Monday night game. Since we're going to call off classes Tuesday, but my daughter was a senior at LSU at the time. This was before the pandemic and everybody for that makes a lot of sense. We don't want these kids driving back drunk. So he says he puts out a tweet and says, LSU, get free college under the Sanders thing.
Or did it just go to real school? People see that. And I go, what kind of Dick? We use this and that. And I understand that's so much permeates Conor, coastal thought, and it makes it hard. But John Bel Edwards or anybody else, or Doug Jones or John OSA, Ron, or Jamie Harrison, what is it about these people?
That they think they're being intelligent. When I do this kind of crap, you're one of them. Explain it to me.
Matt Bai: [00:41:02] One of them. I don't think I liked that. Well, I will say, I will say James. I mean, you gave Senator Lankford a pass a moment ago. I'm going to give Benny a pass. Cause I know him and he's a really bright guy.
I will say, you know, the, and, and a good guy. I, I will say the. I think the social, this has always been as you know, better than I do. This has always been part of the American left. There has always been a cultural and educational leadism people can, people can say that's a, you know, that's just a caricature if they want, but it's not.
And I've written about it at length. I think, you know, the social media has, has created a dynamic in particular in Twitter. I don't think actually tons of people see that tweet cause tons of people are not, this is mostly an echo chamber for liberal journalists, but if you spend enough time on Twitter and I try not to, or, or other social media, you begin to think that that is the universe.
You begin to think that you're operating in a much larger universe of thought than you actually are. It's a hall of mirrors. And when you operate in that hall of mirrors, you start to think, you understand America in a way you do not. It's the same way. I know you guys have had this experience. I've had it many times, somebody who's who's, you know, lives in New York city or LA will say to you, I don't think the Republican can win.
I mean, I don't know anybody who's going to vote for it. Well, of course you don't right. You live in New York city. If you spend your time in social media, you lose even in a community where everybody. Feels the same way you do, probably that's how your feed is generally structured now. And so, you know, I do think there is a misunderstanding about this.
There's a feeling that the people who voted for Trump are all closet Confederates. Right-wingers hopeless causes. And, uh, and, and, and, and basically, you know, can't be reclaimed. Yeah. And it's just not true. There are an awful lot of people out there who voted for Donald Trump, who find him really distasteful, who would like a choice who will consider another option.
They are persuadable voters. And that's not a fashionable thing to talk about now because liberals know those don't want to talk about persuadable voters. Cause then you gotta run a campaign. That's all accommodationist. And you got to watch what you say. You can't go out there and feel superior to everybody.
But the truth is that is how the selection is going to be decided it's not a turnout election. I don't believe that I've never believed that the turnout that Hillary Clinton got among African American voters, if you compare it to anyone other than Barack Obama, who I think was a singular candidate was pretty darn good.
And that's not where you're gonna find your votes. You're gonna find your votes on people who voted for Trump. And, um, and I think you run the risk of,
James Carville: [00:43:29] I wish you would report on this more. I'm involved with a project where we're spending $75 million in 77, rural counties in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and the most dangerous.
Dang and people saying, I see this shit all the time are no swing. Boat is out there. It's all a turnout election. Oh please.
Matt Bai: [00:43:52] And
James Carville: [00:43:52] I just want you and I would use, I don't, I'm a liberal, what I'm not is, I'm not an urban look. Of course. I love cities. I love to go to New York or Chicago. I love San Francisco, but the urbanist mentality that is so permeated.
Certain part of the party is utterly destructive to what's going on out there. And I don't know, there's just this, this smugness and it really pisses people off. You don't have to do that. Bill Clinton never did that. Bill Clinton was smarter than you were. You knew it at some level. He knew it. He just never told me that.
And that's called political skill.
Matt Bai: [00:44:40] Well, I do think there's a comforting aspect to the turnout theory, right? Cause if you believe that every election is about turnout, then you never have to be wrong or you never have to compromise, or you never have to think about the way other people live. It's just more, it's just louder and louder, more and louder.
All the time, but it's, it's a flawed theory and it's, it's always, of course, you know, a mixture is, you know, you know, better than I do. It's always both turnout and persuasion. I think it is. Yeah.
Al Hunt: [00:45:11] I, I also, I want to, I want to comfort you, Matt and assuage your worries because you're absolutely right. I agree.
Totally. But all of the empirical evidence, namely elections. Indicates that the voters think that way too. The latest being Colorado, uh, this week, I mean, Colorado had a choice between a Bernie Sanders left winger, uh, single payer versus, uh, the Y for lack of a better term, the moderate former governor John Hickenlooper, he can Looper man a terrible campaign and he's still got 60%.
The urbanist win. In heavily democratic, urban areas. They don't win. And, and the sorts of places that decide elections, they win in New York city, went in places like that. Uh, but I think, I think they, there certainly the primaries of 2020 prove that
James Carville: [00:46:04] the
Al Hunt: [00:46:04] off year elections prove that. And whatever the effort of, of Republicans to paint Democrats and in a culture war, you know, Joe Biden just, he, he has weaknesses as a candidate, but one of them is not that he comes across as an elitist, Joe Biden and elitist, uh, are, uh, are, are, are not two terms you'd use in the same sentence.
Matt Bai: [00:46:25] I totally agree. And that is his strength. And, and, you know, certainly the off year elections, the 2018 elections were in static. On this point, I need a demo. That is the model for winning big in 20, 20, every day, Democrat who won. I think literally every Democrat who won in 2018 basically picked up a, you know, suburban votes with sort of common sense policies, all of the sort of left wing ends, right.
Uh, lost, uh, lost primaries in Los general. So it's, it's, it is, you know, um, It's the way you're going to win. And, and look, you, you might win this election as a Democrat either way, frankly. I mean, it's, it's it's TV. Yup. If you lose it, you only can blame yourself. But as, but, you know, to what James said earlier, how big is that win?
Right? What are you going to carry with you? I think a smart campaign. You know, trying to talk to people who may not have voted democratic last time you, you could end up, you could end up controlling everything, uh, after, after the selection. Cause I think there is a, is a deep and profound unrest out there with, with how this experiment has gone.
And that, that is what it was for a lot of owners. It was an experiment and it's gone poorly. It doesn't mean they want to go back to the status quo. It doesn't mean they think politics was great the way it was. Uh, but I think there, but I think there a lot of of voters is my guests on this are willing to return to normalcy for a little while and then take a breath and figure out where we go next.
Right. I think, you know, I've described Joe Biden is how's flipper candidate to me, you know, it's like, he's, he's, he's, he's not easy. He's not the guy who has the biggest plan, the most excited he's the guy he's going to come into the neighborhood. There's a, there's a bunch of squatters. I was in a house in the neighborhood that are bringing down all the values and making everybody feel.
Uncomfortable and unsafe, and he's going to come by that house. He's going to kick out the squatters. He's going to repaint, fix it up. And then he's going to put it back on the market in four years. Right. He's here to just get things under control. Uh, and, and then he's going to walk away
James Carville: [00:48:21] compensation.
Peter Hart, who said something I thought was particularly insightful. He said, Biden doesn't need to run. Is the grandfather he needs to run. Is the uncle. Cause the grandfather's going to give you anything that you want, the uncle, your parents, your parents are all stern. Your grandparents are all forgiven.
Your uncle likes you when you do well and tells you something that you do wrong. And I thought that was a. Kind of insightful analogy. You know, uncle Joe had conjures up Stalin. I know
Matt Bai: [00:48:56] that
Al Hunt: [00:48:58] my, my, my uncle spooned me a lot more than my father and my grandma. What
James Carville: [00:49:03] about grinding carrots would give you anything, but I want to go to something you wrote in it, just from my view.
I think you have an important role to play as a translator between urban. Thinking in the rest of America, because I think as much as anybody, you understand both. Thank you. I mean, you live in one and you report in another
Matt Bai: [00:49:29] it's. I was thinking about this the other day, thinking about writing about it, how interesting it is, um, a presence let's see, like Trump's reveals something beyond ideology.
It really reveals character. I think most of us. Who are not conservatives. Um, I'm not, um, if you're independent or a Democrat, I think you would have said at the outset of this administration will. Jeff sessions is a guy he's he's. So, uh, he's been in the tank with Trump from the beginning and he's so ideological and he's so stride and he has this racial history and it's Alabama.
And you know, he's this, this is a guy I was going to be terrible for the justice department, uh, for an independent justice department. And, and if you'd heard, bill BARR was going to come in after sessions, you thought, well was a guy who worked for George H w Bush. There's a guy who's considered moderate and a guy who cares about the law and has this whole experience is in the prosecutorial.
Vain, but it turns out, I think when you look back on it, that. Uh, this presidency reveals the character. It tests the character of people because the choices are always bad because the president has always asking you to do things that are inappropriate. And what we found out was that Jeff sessions for all his ardent reflexive, Southern conservatism cared deeply about the institutions of government he'd been in the Senate a long time.
He believes in the institutions of government and he was not going to go that far. He was willing to lose his job and lose his political career necessary. To protect some bedrock principle of the justice department, whereas BARR who served, who seemed just great when he served a better president and a better person, uh, there's no bottom to the depth.
He's willing to go, uh, as an attorney general, uh, because he's basically a monarchist at heart. Uh, and, and it, it, it turns out that he pretty much will do anything a president wants him to do. And if that president is a person of character decency, great. And if they're not, well, then you're just, you're out of luck.
And, uh, and I think it's, it's, it's interesting how this presidency, cause it's constantly making people. Make moral and ethical choices reveals the essential character of who they are in public life. And I do not think history will judge bar to have to have had the character, the strength of character necessary for the moment.
Al Hunt: [00:51:40] Well, I, I couldn't agree with you more. I think he's the worst attorney general. Uh, probably in our history, I, uh, very few Republicans have stood up to that challenge. However, and those who have, uh, have tended to suffer for it. You have a few inklings now, Matt, uh, Liz Cheney is breaking with him on a few things.
I guess first, do you expect any more in the next four months? But secondly, to go to the question that James asked Jack, uh, asked, uh, Senator Lankford, if the Republicans, as we expect, lose this and lose it, pretty darn decisively. What's that party going to look like? Uh, on November the seventh, November the 27th.
Matt Bai: [00:52:19] That's a fascinating question. Now, do I expect it? The true answer is I've expected it. Every week for the last four years, you know, I really had more faith in the Republican party and in the people I knew who were the Republicans who served in office then, uh, then was warranted. Um, and they've gone so far down this road, they've been so willing to gamble the future of their party.
It has shocked me. As I think it has surprised a lot of people, uh, I guess I was naive about that. Um, I do think that there'll be more sure the deeper Trump falls and particularly if he loses everybody will suddenly be someone who was always critical of Trump. Right. They're all going to want to jump out of the boat.
But the fact is they've all crammed in there for years, they're going to pay a price with the public. They're going to pay a price with their own conscience. And they're gonna pay a price with history because this is beyond ideology. This is beyond vision for the country. We have had a man in office who I, I have written and I believe is the first, truly bad person in the presidency.
Uh, in my lifetime and maybe ever, uh, who has put his own interests again and again, and again, above let alone party, he couldn't care less about the party. He's totally hijacked it. And, and they have stood by and gambled on the idea. And I do believe this is what they think they've gambled on the idea that it can only lasts for so long.
And we'll all outlast him. It's crazy. And it's not, but just nod and go along with it. He's he's getting done. What needs to get done. We're putting judges on the court, we're getting our tax cuts and this, this will end and we'll still be sitting here and things will get back to normal. It was a miscalculation.
And I think it's going to be one of the really interesting stories in the next couple of years if Trump loses, uh, which is, you know, what, to, what extent is the Republican party damaged, uh, beyond, beyond repairing. And how long does it take. To rebuild that brand into something beyond this sort of reactionary.
Anti-immigrant divisive force in American life.
Al Hunt: [00:54:18] Listen to that. Rob Portman and Lamar Alexander, uh, listen to Matt by James got time for one more question.
James Carville: [00:54:24] I just bought a big, real clear here. I believe there's a better chance that he does not run and he's reelected. And I think that he does not run. I don't know what they are.
But whatever they are today, they're five times as much as they were a June. Maybe it was one 10th of 1% at the end of June. Maybe it's a half of 1% now, but it is up every day because he cannot take it. Isn't you want to report on something as a state Senate district in Kentucky at Burnie, it's a suburban Louisville it's it's Oldham County is kind of up to high river.
Part of Jefferson's in it. Trump carried that. By 12 in 2016, the Democrat carried it in the same election by 16. What you're starting to see is he's bought a state in Southern suburbs. Think Atlanta Nashville, Oklahoma city. All right. We're starting to behave like we're Al grew up the Philadelphia suburbs, the New Jersey suburbs.
The orange County suburbs. I mean, I, I think that, and I know it's a special and you're going to have the turnout, but a 28 point turnaround in a district is something to take notice off. I really believe that. And you know, the Northern Kentucky suburbs go in, in Ohio Columbus suburb about when moon that blowing a gasket right now, they're not just turning on him.
I mean, they're just like crazy, but that's for good reason,
Al Hunt: [00:56:08] Matt. Bye. You have a final word.
Matt Bai: [00:56:10] Yeah. I don't know. I don't know, James. I mean, it's, it's interesting. Again, I've been wrong. I didn't think he'd run. I didn't think he'd run to begin with. First of all, because I'd been through this dance in the nineties, I, I was willing to bet at the outset, it was a 50, 50 chance he was going.
Going to run for one term. He was, he was going to be done with one term and not run again. Cause I didn't think he ever really wanted the job. I've been wrong about Trump's intentions all along because I really didn't think he ever really wanted to be president. And now I think it's, first of all, it's, it's difficult to see face saving way for him to get out.
It's also difficult. I don't know what the procedural opening for that is. I don't know how the Republican party does that. I mean, I guess they'd have to do it at the convention, but I think it's a. I think it's unlikely.
James Carville: [00:56:55] Google the bulwark, James, Carville just Google app. It'll pop right up. This is how he exits.
I wrote about it.
Matt Bai: [00:57:03] All right. I'm going to read, I want to hear this interesting. Well,
Al Hunt: [00:57:06] I also want to encourage everybody out there. Well, first of all, I wanna encourage Matt to write more. Four months now, I'm sorry. You can just do a little bit more because we need you Matt. Bye. We really do. Uh, and, uh, and I, can't not thank you enough for being a guest today.
Uh, your column is always interesting and, uh, I, once again, you're married above yourself. Uh, so, uh,
James Carville: [00:57:31] we appreciate
Al Hunt: [00:57:32] that to say hi to Ellen and thanks a lot.
Matt Bai: [00:57:35] I will. I appreciate you guys. It's an honor for me. Thank you. Hey Matt.
James Carville: [00:57:39] Tell mr. Apple, Bob. If he comes on a show, I donate $500 to his favorite art museum.
Matt Bai: [00:57:48] Tell him that that's a good one. Alright.
Al Hunt: [00:57:50] Alright. Bye. Bye. Take care, Matt.
Matt Bai: [00:57:54] I'll see you guys,
Al Hunt: [00:57:55] James. We did, we did good today as they say this was a really interesting show. Uh, we also have a pretty interesting show coming up next week, more than pretty, you know, tell us about it.
James Carville: [00:58:07] Tell us about it. So one of the things is in 2016, the white working class became the big story for whatever reason.
If sort of see it from the opinion that the greatest authority on the white working class is Stan Greenberg. I'm sorry. The scholar he's worked in the campaign pollster. He did the original research in McComb County in Michigan. He's followed this to happen. There's a terrific new book out and got a bi-fold reviewed in New York time.
Today from Clyde Haberman, I got named David Paul Kuhn. Who's like a. I wouldn't call them one of my students, but I bet it bet my class. And David has the story of the working class backlash in New York city in 1969 and how it started to deteriorate the end of the relationship between the democratic party and working class Americans.
And we're going to have a full hour with these two guys and you and I, and what we want to do is as opposed to like, interview and just have a conversation. About where, what, how did we get here? And I think that there are a lot of myths about white working class and you get the definition of it, but anybody that is interested in politics, I will guarantee you, this is a show that I'm very excited about.
Please. You know, I don't know what you do, listen to it on a subscribed, but whatever the hell, this thing works, but do whatever it is. Tell anybody, you know, that's interested in having a conversation about a very strategic place demographic in the United States. You could like them, but just like them or whatever you think about them.
But as for now, they're pretty strategically located and it's an important, it's an important part of this coming election. So I am just beside myself about this kind of story. Then you've read the great Tom metals column today in the times. And you juxtapose that with the Clyde Haberman view of David Paul's book, and you can see that we're going to have a good shot.
Al Hunt: [01:00:23] We aren't going to have a good show. That is a commitment. Uh, but I want to thank everybody now for listening to 2020 about this war rum. And you can follow the show on Twitter at politics war room. You also can email us. Politics war rome@gmail.com as politics, war image, gmail.com. If you have a comment or a question, you know, please, please let us know.
Thank you for subscribing. Uh, we had a terrific show this week. It's going to be great next week. We really hope you'll tune in, uh, and please stay home, stay safe and be well, this is Al I've seen goodbye for James Carville and politics.