Kelly Burton and Jessica Post on Bottom-of-the-Ballot Battles and Seth Richardson on Corruption in Ohio
With all eyes on Trump v. Biden , it can be easy to forget that there's a lot more at stake this November than just the presidency. Even congressional races may finally be getting the attention they deserve. But National Democratic Redistricting Committee president Kelly Burton and Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee preside Jessica Post argue that the real work is far more granular, down at the local legislative level. And the world of political scandal, journalist Seth A. Richardson (The Cleveland Plain Dealer) highlights one of the most staggering examples of graft in American history, involving an energy company, a wide array of figures at the heart of Ohio politics, and $60 million in bribes.
Show Notes:
00:00 – Intro
01:30 – Overcoming the GOP's monetary advantage
07:30 – Where to send your check
12:00 – What happens when you flip a statehouse
15:45 – The class of 2020
21:45 – Voting by mail
25:45 – The root of the graft
33:00 – The plot to prop up a failing energy company
36:15 – Ohio as a swing state
39:45 – How far does the corruption go?
Transcript:
Al Hunt: [00:00:00] Hello and welcome to 2020 Politics War Room with James Carville, who is in the Shenandoah. I'm Al Hunt in Washington. We remain proud partners with a sign instituted American university and the sea. We have another really good show for you this week. I hope first you'll ask and it never gets old or tell your friends and family about this show is every vote and every subscriber counts, subscribe on Apple podcast, Spotify, Stitcher, or wherever you listen to your podcast. Now for our guests, James, you know, I really think that there's happy days again, here for Democrats, Joe Biden has a substantial lead. Democrats are poised to pick up four to seven sentences. Maybe add to the house when key governor's races, but Republicans under the radar are pouring a fortune in, do retain control of most state legislatures.
They did this 10 years ago to take over the state houses and then gerrymander, congressional and state legislative seats for a decade. Some of the tactics sleazy, mostly legal. Were captured in a book appropriately titled rat fucked Democrats want to be ready this time and they have to have the best operatives in America with us today.
Kelly Ward, the executive director of the democratic redistricting committee. And Jessica post president of the democratic legislative campaign committee, the stakes are high, huge when the census and new redistricting next year, Kelly, let me start with you. Cause you had to get up early out in California.
Your group led by Eric Holder. ORAC Obama involved. This is a big, big deal yet. Unlike Congress, Republicans are able to outspend you so far. Why.
Kelly Burton: [00:01:42] Well, it's good to be with you guys. Thanks so much for focusing this episode on this topic, as you noted, it's very important, but it doesn't often get a lot of attention.
So I'm really appreciate you guys highlighting the significance of the down ballot races. Um, first let me just say that it's not an overstatement to say that the next decade of our democracy is on the line. Not only do we need to defer. Donald Trump, that is an existential threat, but the 2020 election is our last chance to elect candidates who will have a seat at the redistricting table in 2021.
So the redistricting process gives us the opportunity to set the stage in the legislative brands, both in Congress and in state legislatures around the country to make sure that we have. Fair system on the legislative side with fair districts where the will of the voters can be reflected in the outcome of our elections.
We have not seen that across the last decade, given the Republican gerrymandering of 2011. So this is a really important election from the top of the ticket, all the way down ballot to your state legislators, because it is the state legislators who. Draw the maps in most States. So we have to focus down ballot, um, to your question about money.
You know, look, the Republicans know this reality of the significance of not just the top of the ticket, but all the way to the state legislative level and the local level elections. They know that that's how they get their policies through. They know that that's their bench for the longterm, and it's really effective.
That Democrats see it that way as well, this cycle, so that we invest in these races at the level, we know the Republicans are going to invest in these races.
Al Hunt: [00:03:19] Jessica talk a little bit about what they did in 2011, it was, it was diabolical, but it was brand. And what, some of the, the impact, the effects for the next decade were
Seth Richardson: [00:03:30] in some places.
Jessica Post: [00:03:31] Thanks again for having me on. I'm so happy to be here with you and Kelly. My partner in this work today. I Kelly knows. And, and you know, that I sat on the board of the national democratic redistricting committee. So this is truly a partnership in this work. So at the DLCC, one thing that we observed in 2011, the Republicans for the first time used partisan political data to gerrymander themselves into a near decade, long control on United States, Congress.
And they also gerrymandered the state legislative maps at the same time. So they used sophisticated data. They took a strategy where in 2010, remember. We Democrats had 60 votes in the United States Senate going into the election. I control the United States, um, in addition to that, the presidency. And so it felt like things were really going well for the Democrats in America.
And the Republicans thought like what's the path back to power. And so they realized that they needed to take back their path back was to take back. The States Democrats were investing enough at the DLCC. Um, We only invested 10 million, that cycle Republican's invested 3 million and for $30 million, they got the best return on investment in math.
Non-federal dollars. And remember, this is the time of four super packs became as big as they are now. And they were able to take 21 chambers in one night, state legislative chambers. They use this extreme partisan data to create extremely gerrymandered, both state legislative and congressional districts.
And the jury in, in States like Wisconsin, they said we need to even be able to survive the highest watermark for a Democrats election. And at that time it was. To 2006, where governor Jim Doyle was elected in Wisconsin. It was a great year for Democrats across the country. And so they gerrymandered these maps and, uh, and it was, it's been a tough one since then.
Um,
Al Hunt: [00:05:19] yes, sir. Let me ask both both of you pick three or four state
Seth Richardson: [00:05:23] legislatures that really are the most important
Al Hunt: [00:05:26] on November 3rd. And then James has lots of thoughts on this.
Jessica Post: [00:05:29] Yeah, I mean, absolutely. I think, I think in terms of redistricting, if you look at States like Pennsylvania, Texas Florida and North Carolina, those are hugely important.
And I'll tell you, we put the Republicans on their heels. We doubled our electoral budget. We flipped more than 450 seats red to blue since Trump was elected. And in addition to that, we flipped 10 state legislative chambers. So Republicans know that they're up for an unprecedented fight in 2020. And that's why they're doubling down on this level of the ballot.
Kelly Burton: [00:05:59] And let me just add at the NDRC. You know, our job is to look at the map through a redistricting lens. So we particularly look at the races that have a seat at the redistricting table, which is what makes these state legislative races so important for us. Um, and so control of redistricting and in, in particular, You know, taking trifecta control out of the hands of the Republicans so that they can't control the redistricting process.
Again is the focus. And we've made a lot of progress on that. Um, since 2011, uh, in the, after the 2010 election. So in 2011 and the Republicans had tried. A control over 213 congressional districts. Um, that's now way down and we've shifted away from Republican control and into either democratic control or more importantly, and better for redistricting into independent commissions.
Um, there are five big States that are left, that are still in Republican trifecta control, and those are the States that we're honing in on. So particularly as just. Texas. Those five States are Texas, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio. If we can move the re the needle and get Democrats a seat at the table in those five years, the States that's to the tune of 106 congressional districts, even before reapportionment.
So we need to hone in on, um, on those States and yeah. Most notably within that is the Texas house and the North Carolina Senate in North Carolina. So
James Carville: [00:07:33] somebody, I talked to him about this and I said, okay, Jane, I'm convinced I got a hundred grand. Why do I sit in the check?
Jessica Post: [00:07:41] I would say the DLCC, probably James,
Al Hunt: [00:07:43] I think that's probably the best place
Seth Richardson: [00:07:44] to print it
Jessica Post: [00:07:45] or the national democratic redistricting committee.
I mean, look, I think, um, I definitely think the Texas house is a great investment at this time as well. Um, the Texas house democratic campaign committee, I think is doing a great job, Kelly and I partner with them also. So those are certainly places that, um, that definitely need resources. Another strategic playwright is Kansas, right?
Where, um, Similar to, to James and your home state in Louisiana. One of the things we did at DLCC in 2019 in partnership with our friends at NDRC, we went down into Louisiana to make sure that the Republicans didn't gain a super majority in the state house after Democrats were able to protect governor John bill Edwards.
In Kansas, we need to go in and break the super majority in the Kansas state house. Uh, we only need one seat to do that, to protect the democratic governors vetoes. That's probably the most efficient place financially to put your a hundred thousand dollars into that effort to break that super majority in Kansas willing.
And one seat.
James Carville: [00:08:42] Why don't you have somebody do a project and say up to Senate races, who's raised the most money per gross rating points. Right because they're given money to hang in the grass. It was very $30 million or you couldn't spend $30 million in Kentucky. And you know, it's another thing. If you get the MTA, Hey there, cause you could spend $30 million in Texas, but to democratic donors, I think the overfunding some races at the expense.
That's about it
Al Hunt: [00:09:12] and not getting involved in races like Jessica and Kelly are talking about.
James Carville: [00:09:17] I mean, I just take it. Our donors are not being strategic.
Kelly Burton: [00:09:22] I think that president Obama said it best a couple of weeks ago when he did the event for vice president Biden. And he said, whatever you have done, it's not enough.
And so do more. So I think this is a both and strategy. I mean, certainly. Your point about how far money can go at the state legislative and local level is exactly right. The same amount of money. Um, you know, a thousand dollars to a state legislative candidate can go so much farther than a thousand dollars to, you know, a billion dollar budget or these multimillion dollar statewide budgets.
Um, the thing that's important to note though, is that the same dynamics that are making. These races competitive both at the Senate level and the house level are also the dynamics that are making these races competitive within the state legislative districts, right? The most competitive state legit districts are in the suburbs.
You know, they're in the parts of the state where you're seeing Democrats move away from Republicans generally. So it gives a real opportunity for a full ticket push. Um, and so the state legislative candidates can often draft off of what's happened top of ticket. Um, but yeah, to your point, you know, they need their own investment.
They need to be able to get on television. They need to be able to run their own races. And as Jessica noted. You know, entities like these house caucuses and Senate caucuses, um, really their job is to just focus on the state legislative races. And so investments in, in those entities are helpful because that's how you ensure that the strategy and the money is going to pick up state legislative seats, regardless of what's happening, um, you know, above them on the ticket.
James Carville: [00:10:57] So I'm hearing from North Carolina that it was a small chance. That the Democrats could pick up the state Senate. Does that analysis comport with.
Jessica Post: [00:11:07] That's absolutely true. I mean, Democrats have a chance to get the North Carolina house or Senate it's. Um, we only need five seats to flip the North Carolina state Senate and the North Carolina state Senate maps, and did get slightly better as a result of a lawsuit, um, funded in part by the national redistricting foundation.
Uh, our DLCC analysis indicates the Senate as possible. But also the state house, we need six seats to flip the state house. Uh, Democrats, we went in and broke the super majorities in North Carolina in the 2020 election cycle. This is really important because unfortunately, governor Cooper has no role in being able to veto a redistricting map of either the congressional or the state legislative districts.
So we really need one of those branches of government, either the North Carolina house or Senate in order to have a seat at the table in redistricting in North Carolina.
Al Hunt: [00:11:56] You know, obviously, you know, winning a seat in Kansas matters, but just hearing you too, it strikes me that the stakes may be the biggest there, obviously Ohio, Florida, uh, others important, but Texas and North Carolina at the top of those.
Jessica Post: [00:12:10] Yeah, I think, I mean, Kelly can weigh in on this, but the growth of congressional districts, I think that we're likely to see in Texas and North Carolina, very important, uh, and in the cases where we're breaking Republican single party rule, Oh, the state government by picking up one branch of government .
Kelly Burton: [00:12:27] in the state.
Yeah. It's a game changer in terms of having a seat at the table for redistricting.
James Carville: [00:12:31] So let let's back up. So you, your key States are Georgia, North Carolina, Texas,
Kelly Burton: [00:12:38] Wisconsin. And then I would add there. In terms of shifting Republican trifecta control away from, you know, Republicans being able to control redistricting and over into, um, have Democrats having a seat at the time table.
Yes. As Jessica, I would add, there are also other winnable chambers around the country. You don't want to lose sight of. Um, Jessica can speak to you cause the DLCC focuses very strongly on. You know, the Minnesota Senate is a top priority as a flip, Jessica mentioned Pennsylvania, um, which is also an important target.
So there's the redistricting targets for sure. Shifting Republican trifecta control. And then there is the chambers around the country, sort of, regardless of redistricting where we can, um, Democrats are in a position to flip those things chambers. So we have to look at both elements of the map.
James Carville: [00:13:25] Well, y'all are doing, I'm really doing a lot at work.
I'm glad we can draw some of the cash into the us because it's a really critical issue.
Al Hunt: [00:13:32] Yeah, yeah, it sure is. And, and I just think though, the problem that you still face is I think there's so much democratic money this year, growing out of Trump. I mean, they're in almost every
Seth Richardson: [00:13:44] competitive Senate race, the
Al Hunt: [00:13:45] Democrats raising more incumbent, Republican, same thing and, uh, and competitive house races.
The problem that you all face is we alluded to earlier, it's under the radar. It's hard to persuade one of these well-intended. Uh, well, he'll donors that, Hey, you know, there's a state reps raised down in North Carolina. That really is important.
Jessica Post: [00:14:06] I agree with that. I mean, look, I think we've done better than ever in the 2010 election cycle, the LCC spent 10 million.
We'll spend $50 million. Living state legislatures the cycle. So five times more when I came and took the reigns of DLCC, one of the things I said is we have to be financially competitive with our Republican counterpart, uh, the Republican state leadership committee going into 2020. And we'll continue to stand that fight up going into that election cycle.
Um, it is critical. I think one of the challenges that we have. Of course is that of course there's star power. And in people like Amy McGrath who were incredible candidates running against Mitch McConnell, but as we look at things across the country, like voting rights, the ability to make progress on climate change and gun safety.
If you look at what happened in a state like Virginia, where we flip the state legislature, In 2019 progress happens immediately. The voting law has got so much better setting us up for success. He ran the 2020 election cycle with mail balloting. Um, we protected LGBTQ and trans folks. And in this in state law and also move laws on gun safety.
So many things that sit in Congress for frankly decades get moved immediately after, uh, state legislatures flip from red to blue. We see that all across the country. And so I think that's a big thing that folks may not understand it, the impact that happens in the States and the potential for collective impact with flipping multiple state legislatures red, to blue on just a myriad of issues that are so important for most Americans.
James Carville: [00:15:39] So, is it always important? How did recruiting go? If we get a lot of the people that run it, we wanted to, or just in
Jessica Post: [00:15:46] general? Absolutely. I mean, we we're near, we have near or full slates of democratic candidates in States like North Carolina and Texas, uh, folks like veterans, um, combat veterans in States like Texas, like, well, people like Kiki Williams, um, air force colonels in States like North Carolina that are running right.
Small business owners, the recruitment looks really good. We have great candidates across the country. Um, in Minnesota, there's a woman and Johnson, Stewart. Who's a civil engineer and a scientist, small business owners, community leaders. Uh, we feel very, very good about the recruiting class, uh, of these 2020 races.
Kelly Burton: [00:16:24] And w to build off your point, James, about just where the money can go and, um, you know how to lift up these races. Generally, the, because we have such great candidates, the name of the game is just increasing their name ID. Right? We know that turnout is going to be high. We know Democrats are fired up this cycle.
Um, and as I mentioned, there's a lot of these. Targeted state legislative races that are within the competitive congressional districts. And so, you know, there's going to be a lot of effort to turn out these voters. The key strategy is to make sure that the voters know the state legislature candidates names well enough to go all the way down ticket and not to roll off or, you know, drop off their, um, their vote before the state legislative level, because they just have never heard of these candidates.
So a big thing that we try to do, and a big reason why the money for these. The state legislative candidates is so important is because they just have to get their names. Not there, especially in a good year for Democrats. They need to tell Democrats who they are, you know, they need to communicate with swing voters, certainly.
Um, but a lot of it is just making sure that these races are on the radar of the voters, in these areas where they're going to hear so much about other elections in their, um, in their neighborhoods. Well,
Al Hunt: [00:17:35] Kelly, to be sure that that's really important, but, but also that top of the ticket, the rising tide does matter.
10 was a great Republican year and they swept in a lot of people who otherwise couldn't have one. One of the reasons you all did well last year, second reason. First reason was because of Jessica and Kelly. But the second reason was you had a good year, the top of the ticket and most places. And this year, the top of that, I'm thinking of a place like North Carolina.
They had a poll the other day that had Roy Cooper up 20, I doubt is that much, but if he wins by sizable double digits, that's going to bring in some of those state
Seth Richardson: [00:18:11] legislators in there.
Jessica Post: [00:18:13] Ideally. Yes, I look, I think one of the challenges that we have is our maps are gerrymandered as well. And so that means that there's even more of an effort as you're flipping it.
A place like the North Carolina house, you need to resource these races to do exactly what Kelly said. One to me, each of the Democrats that are coming out to vote for Roy Cooper, to vote for vice president Biden, understand that they need to vote at our level, the ballot, but we also need to get it. Are these folks a reason to vote for these candidates in, in what are truly, sometimes very challenging districts?
So, you know, one of the things that we learned in, in the strategies of 2008 and 2012, is that while a rising tide does. Help lift all boats. We still have to resource the, our level of the ballot in order for, to secure wins at the state legislative level in 2012, when, um, president Obama had an incredible year, many state legislative chambers still didn't flip back because of the challenging maps in these States.
So the thing that we absolutely know we have to do from years of. Of work is just make sure that these candidates are well-resourced and running competitive campaigns. We invested about $2 million to make sure candidates were fundraising across the country, and it's just a huge need. So the assumption that vice president Biden will win and that'll bring in everything.
We've tested that top of the ticket theory at the DLCC or for in the democratic party and at the DLCC for a long time. And it's a little bit like trickle down economics. I just, does it sort of work?
Al Hunt: [00:19:40] It can't be that bad,
Seth Richardson: [00:19:41] Jessica.
Jessica Post: [00:19:42] Yeah.
Kelly Burton: [00:19:42] Well, look, Jessica's point about the gerrymandered maps is a really important point because, and we saw this in 2018 with massive turnout with just such energy on the democratic side, right.
And you had States like North Carolina and Ohio and Wisconsin, where that didn't pick up any congressional districts at all, simply because, cause of the maps. And then when you look at the state legislative results in those States, right? Democrats in North Carolina, they won 51% of the state legislative results, but they only got four.
44% of the seats, right in Ohio Democrats, excuse me, Republicans won 52%. The state led results, but they got 63% of the seats. So there's the, the maps really do create the structural barrier that it takes, you know, massive amount of turnout to overcome. And we've seen as Jessica's noting that there are some States because of the maps where the turnout just won't.
Overcome that barrier. And so we have to do both and we have to, you know, draft off of the energy of the top of the ticket, but we also have to run these individual state legislative races as if they are their own races. So,
James Carville: [00:20:52] so give us the website, tell our subscribers where to follow this. What are it?
Where do they go?
Jessica Post: [00:20:57] Well, we'd love folks out to check out dot org. That's our website. Um, you can follow us on Twitter at DLCC and Instagram and Facebook, and then Kelly, I'll throw it to
Kelly Burton: [00:21:07] you. Uh, ours is democratic redistricting.com and you can go to our website and you there's a map of all the States and you can click on each state and it gives you a lot list of the candidates we've endorsed in those States.
So it's really easy to find the candidates that not only are in competitive districts, um, that we need to win, but also all of our candidates have signed a pledge against gerrymandering. And so we know that those candidates are going to support fair maps. Um, so you can find those candidates on our website and, um, you know, give to them directly, give to us, give to caucuses.
That's where the money can, can really go far.
James Carville: [00:21:43] Repeat the name of the site again, please?
Kelly Burton: [00:21:45] Sure. Democratic redistricting.com.
Al Hunt: [00:21:48] There's going to be a lot more voting by mail the pandemic and other reasons there may be complications from it, but it's clearly going to be a huge increase from before. Is that an opportunity or a problem for down ballot races?
Either one of you.
Jessica Post: [00:22:04] I think it presents a huge opportunity. One of the things that Kelly has talked about is ballot roll-off where people not completing the ballot because they don't, I don't know the voters at the, or they don't, the voters don't understand the candidates at the bottom of the ticket. And one of the things that we've seen in research is that if, if folks vote by mail, more willing to complete the ballot, they can take more time, time Google candidates on their phone presents a great opportunity for us at DLCC to get folks to really vote all the way down the ballot.
And
Kelly Burton: [00:22:34] the other, the flip side of that coin, uh, it is absolutely an opportunity for the state legislative races. And to, as Jessica said to decrease the roll off, it is the thing that keeps me up at night about this Shanti became, um, which is just the election administration side of the selection and how under resourced and under prepared these local elections officials are for the volume of vote by mail room.
We saw just debacle. The implementation in the primaries in many key States. Um, and so I think we, we all should be very worried about the ability to process these vote by mail ballots and to actually execute the elections at the event that many States are unfamiliar with. Um, and you know, Mitch McConnell, well just released a bill with $0 for election funding.
Um, at the state and local level, whereas the house bill had $3.6 billion just for election funding, because that's what the experts say the States need. So it's a huge opportunity, but we should be worried.
Al Hunt: [00:23:38] Well, Kelly, he also has $0 for the post office too.
Kelly Burton: [00:23:43] Well. That's true. Right. So I mean, look, all they have to do is start with the system, right?
If it doesn't work, it works in their favor. And that is very much a strategy that they are on right now.
Al Hunt: [00:23:52] Well, um, they, they, they probably don't know what they're facing when they're facing Jessica. And Kelly, by the way, Kelly is, is Barack Obama really helping you much?
Kelly Burton: [00:24:01] Very much. So he's, he's super fired up about the issue of gerrymandering and redistricting generally, and also very supportive of state legislative candidates, specifically.
Um, last cycle we saw him do for the first time, a broad array of endorsements for state legislative candidates. I think you'll see him do that again. Um, he really is trying to do his part to lift up the significance of these races as is Eric Holder. Um, which is very helpful and a game changer for this level of the battery.
Al Hunt: [00:24:28] Good, Jessica, thank you so much. Uh, Kelly, thank you so much. Uh, tell, uh, tell your husband, bill Burton, James and I identify, we know what it's like to marry above yourself.
Kelly Burton: [00:24:40] I absolutely. Well, I'm very lucky, um, myself. And so I will thank you guys again for having us and for focusing on this. Um, we live in this stuff every day, but it's, it's not on the radar of a lot of people.
So we really appreciate you guys elevating this, this topic.
Jessica Post: [00:24:55] Thank you.
Al Hunt: [00:25:09] Hey James, the motion vilified rivalry scandal, and America is probably the teapot dome scandal and the twenties interior secretary Albert fall to 400 grand of bribes and oil companies and gave him. Policing rights on the federal land years ago, brookies said, how would that translate into current hours?
It would be about 5.3 million. Then now it's 6 million Albert fall and Ohio native would be a piker in Buckeye bribery today, the Republican speaker of the HIO house, mr. Hall's holder. And others were indicted last week as the FBI charge, they failed out a big utility company, first energy nuclear, and some coal facilities are billion dollars in return for $60 million.
And what the FBI alleges were bribed. That's 10 times bigger than teapot dome. One of the best political reporters covering this is Seth Richardson, chief political reporter for the Cleveland plain dealer, cleveland.com author, a capital letter newsletter and the upcoming capital letter podcast, Seth.
Thanks for joining us. Describe this mind boggling. Pay to play scheme.
Seth Richardson: [00:26:18] I think you kind of hit the nail on the head there, right? Uh, mind boggling is certainly it, um, to, to, to really kind of, um, you know, it's easy to just kind of look at this and say, okay, first energy gave, uh, Larry householder, allegedly $60 million in a slush fund.
And he, you know, used some for personal gain, but they also trampled on legislation. Right. But the thing that's kind of crazy about this whole scandal is just the longevity of it. Right? This wasn't just something that happened in 2019 when you know, the bailout was passed, this goes back to, it started as a concerted effort to get Larry householder who, you know, for some background it's probably worth mentioning was under FBI investigation during his previous tenure as speaker back in the early days, thousands for, uh, you know, some, uh, campaign finance and consistencies.
So yeah. You know, it really started with an according to the feds. It started with an effort to get householder elected speaker and then turned into this essentially $60 million slush fund that householder and for other accomplices is used, um, you know, one to get household or into the speakership and to, to get this, uh, uh, this, you know, a billion dollar bailout package pass that's, you know, on the back of Ohio rates.
Payers. And then on top of that, when, um, you know, people started organizing a ballot initiative to repeal that bill, um, using this $60 million slush fund to basically quash the opposition through, you know, a number of tactics that, uh, you know, frankly, not all of which are illegal, but, uh, you know, do include some schemes, such as, uh, paintings, $15,000 to a, one of the campaign organizers for the, uh, the repeal ballot initiative.
To kind of be their mole in the campaign. Um, it's yeah, it's just, it's, it's really this just giant web, um, that is almost hard to kind of internalize because when you're talking about corruption of this, you know, when you talk about political corruption, you know, you're usually you're talking about a singular, you know, politically corrupt, but this just is so wide spread because of, you know, how long and thought out it was with this, you know, you know, Singular goal.
Um, and it does look like according to the, the documents that, um, the department of justice put out the affidavit that. Older had intent on, you know, using these same kind of techniques on other industries, the payday loan industry, which is, you know, kind of been at the center of, uh, uh, some investigations in here.
Al Hunt: [00:28:51] But Stephanie asked you this, this guy was speaker before, uh, he was investigated by the FBI. He escaped, but most people thought, boy, he was lucky to escape. Then he comes back so that everybody knows about him. I mean, he's obviously a shrewd. Politician, but he comes back and they elect him speaker again with sort of a malice of forethought.
Seth Richardson: [00:29:12] Yeah. It's certainly highly questionable. I would think it was highly questionable at the time. And I think it's probably worth pointing out. The reason he was under investigation, the previous time was for, you know, some campaign finance irregularities and some, uh, some potential dirty politics that was going on when, when the deal and, and that's part of the other.
The political side of what's been interesting about all this is, you know, we talked about it a little bit before we started recording that this is, this should be a readymade issue for householders political opponents. Um, and frankly the Republican party's political opponents to just jump on and grasp onto, but because the scandal has tendrils in so many parts of state government, um, there's really been a lot of relativity.
Quiet about it in an election year. So think about how weird that is. This isn't like an off year thing. It's an election year. You go back to the beginning of 2019. Oh, really, you can go back to 2018, I guess the 2018 elections, when, um, you know, there was a concerted effort by householder to get his candidates elected over the previous speaker, Ryan Smith, obviously householder was victorious with that, but he gets to the state house again, you know, gets reelected.
And in 2019, he doesn't have the votes. To be elected speaker among the Republican causes itself. So all of a sudden, you know, he needs some democratic votes to get into the speaker ship's office. So it, he kind of creates this bargain with some of the democratic caucus and really just kind of appended all leadership in the state house.
Um, the speaker was switched over, you know, household obviously took the speakership. Uh, the minority leader, Fred stray horn was ousted as the minority leader, as a bunch of Democrats made the bargain with householder.
Al Hunt: [00:30:57] Well, but Seth, let me ask you this from everything I've read that you've written there haven't been any Democrats implicated yet.
Are you saying you think there will be?
Seth Richardson: [00:31:05] I don't. I don't know. I don't think I could comment on that. Yeah,
Al Hunt: [00:31:08] I'm going to turn this over to James, but when you look at this, this is a legislature that is almost what two to one Republican. They control everything. This guy was a, was a known sort of shady figure.
I can't help, but believe this has got to read down to the Republicans disadvantage in November.
Seth Richardson: [00:31:26] Oh, absolutely. No question. You think it would? And one of the pieces I wrote it. It's gotta be hard. Um, you know, not that anybody should necessarily have sympathy for anything that involves corruption. They shouldn't.
Um, but you've got a Republican party that has been spending, you know, we don't have any top races here except for the president coming up. Right. So it's gotta be, you know, how is the Republican party in this state supposed to. You know, really defend Donald Trump. Um, who's, you know, the center of a lot of, uh, uh, you know, corruption allegations himself, when it, you know, they can't even keep their own house in order.
Right. It, it just, of course, it's going to rebound. Now the problem with that though is again, while this should be, you know, a soft toss for the November elections, right? Because, you know, even going back before Larry householder, this is one of the most gerrymandered States in the country, as far as legislative districts go.
So, so I, I don't know exactly the turnover is going to look like if any, now there are a couple of seats that were already competitive pre scandal that I'd expect would probably shift pretty, you know, I don't know if they're necessarily in Democrats favor, but they should give Democrats a leg up, especially because there's a lot of incumbents in those seats.
Um, Whether it puts any more districts into play. It's kind of hard because you know, they, 10 years ago they basically drew the districts so that they would be as safe as possible for everyone. Um, though actually the ones seat that may, uh, uh, may, may be affected the biggest doesn't even really have to do with the state house.
It's um, the congressional district down in Cincinnati with Steve, Shabbit a Republican
James Carville: [00:33:08] for the moment. Take the corruption and put it aside and explain to our subscribers what was the issue? Because it would be possible to be on one side of this issue is I think the governor was and not be corrupt, which so far has we're down the pies of the governor, but like the Koch brothers and the Sierra club on one side and the AFL CIO was on the other side is I don't understand it.
So what was the issue with this energy company? And what was the question before the legislation?
Seth Richardson: [00:33:42] Two was, there are two nuclear power plants in Ohio, the Davis Bessey nuclear power plant and the Perry nuclear power plant. And first energy was. You know, they, they were struggling. They're aging, they needed some upgrades.
They just basically needed propping up according to first energy who owned them, uh, first energy spun off these nuclear power plants into first energy solutions as part of a bankruptcy. And, um, you know, as part of the, as part of the attempt to kind of spin these nuclear power plants off into their own company, they lobbied the legislature and the governor's office.
Is to get a bailout package. Now what this bailout, this bailout packages, and as simple as say, like, Hey, the legislature is just giving them, you know, $1.3 billion. It was a great, um, a, a fee on, uh, Ohioans power, energy bills, not just first energy customers, all Ohio and spills to basically subsidize these two nuclear energy plants.
Now, um, the argument from a lot of stuff, you know, Because there's so many competing interests, you know, labor, a lot of the labor groups were in favor of it because those are, you know, they're labor shops, right? Those are labor jobs that are at those plants. 1500 people do work at those plants. So that was why labor was on that side.
Um, you know, the other, like the, the reason for some of the, uh, the argument over the green energy aspect is, you know, this was bill. Well as Ohio, um, energy independence kind of thing, you know, um, diversification of the portfolio and whatnot, but what the bailout package did was it killed a lot of other green energy products by kind of funneling it all to this nuclear energy products.
There's a couple other projects that are out there, some wind farms and whatnot, but it killed some of the other, uh, the, the green energy funding for other products. Projects such as, you know, when solar and whatnot. So it all kind of go, the surcharge all goes to these nuclear power plants now, which has been spun off into energy Harbor.
Um, and I mean, you know, a lot of the questions about that are also, you look at a financial report from energy Harbor, not that long, you know, I think just a couple months ago, and they're talking about doing stock buybacks. All of a sudden and specifically citing house bill six, the bailout bill, as a reason that they're able to do the, you know, these, this, um, the stock buybacks.
So there there's all sorts of questions about that now to your question about if people can support it without being prepped. Yeah, of course you look at the, the, the two sponsor are two of the main proponents of it. Uh, one of them is a Republican. One of them's a Democrat. The reason being that the power plants are in their district, right?
That's a lot of jobs in their district.
James Carville: [00:36:20] There's been a, you, you cover politics, you have a newsletter about a year ago, Ohio was a red state. Right. Do you agree that right now, Ohio is a swing state.
Al Hunt: [00:36:34] I would say, so
Seth Richardson: [00:36:35] I guess a year ago, I would have said Ohio is a red state that can vote blue. Right. It's proven that way in the past, Barack Obama won in 2012, I'm sure Brown won in 2018 by like six percentage points.
So
James Carville: [00:36:46] yeah, we need one before, but he won.
Seth Richardson: [00:36:48] Sure. Yes. But it's perfectly capable of electing Democrats. Um, as it looks right now, I would, I would say it's it's. It's still a slightly leans Republican, just because, you know, it was probably a one point state give or take. When you look at the polls and you look at the way that Donald Trump has spending in the state, I mean, you know, purchase something like $20 million worth of ads just for the fall.
And only for television markets. That's a huge investment here. That's that's not running like this state is a layup. That's running it. You need to save the state. And you look at all of the other kind of figures, uh, you know, polling figures that come out and everything makes, you know, everything is close.
I mean, he was, he was down in arrests, mucin poll in Ohio and, you know, we know how Raz mucin tends to kind of lean at least in recent times. So when I look at it, yeah, yeah, I think it's certainly in play. It's just a matter of how much the Democrats really want to try to play here because. There's arguably other more fruitful territories for Democrats to go to the Arizona's the North Carolinas, you know, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, of course.
That's, you know, those are kind of the focus, although it's looking like Trump is pulling out of Michigan already. Um, so there's other kind of more fruitful territory that I think Democrats will probably invest in that said, um, you know, if, if, uh, if Democrats it's do want to make a concerted effort here, there, there, there are some gains that I think.
They, they could possibly see, particularly the Supreme court races here because with the Supreme court's decision on gerrymandering that is relegated to the state court. If they flip the two Supreme court seats that are this time, they stand a chance of being able to, to counter any gerrymandered maps that make them up in the future, which has been kind of the heavy issue here.
Um, as far as electing Democrats to the state house and even to Congress.
James Carville: [00:38:36] Well, man, that's great. That's a good analysis is just spot on. We're fortunate to get this kind of insight on not the scandal, but just overall
Al Hunt: [00:38:44] James, you would bet the Biden is going to make a big effort.
James Carville: [00:38:48] Yes, yes. I mean, and you know, some of this race is so intense and so nationalized and so engaged.
I don't know if it really matters with when they get the field coordinator took, fill Ohio. I really don't. I mean, I, I think voters are just really, really engaged in the selection and I don't know how much you're going to be swayed by television spots. I think opinions are pretty home, pretty hard out there.
Al Hunt: [00:39:18] And I think says point if Trump is spending $20 million in this state that he carried by what? Eight point Seth, last time, uh,
Seth Richardson: [00:39:26] 450,000 votes.
Al Hunt: [00:39:28] That's a sign of weakness, not a sign of strength. Let me ask you before we let you go, Seth, how does this affect Mike DeWine, who was, had a reputation as a pretty conservative guy, but, uh, You know, a straight shooter, certainly a no tinge of, of, uh, corruption.
Seth Richardson: [00:39:43] You know, the feds have clearly said that they, they, aren't looking at governor Dwayne's office right now. And I think if you talk to most people around the state, they, you know, Mike DeWine is worth like a hundred million dollars. He's not taking a bribe from an energy company that is kind of the.
Prevailing sentiment. Um, and he just doesn't see it, like the kind of guy who would take a bribe even. Yeah. If it was offered to them, frankly. Um, and I think if you ask just about anyone around the state, they're going to agree with that. That's Democrats, that's Republicans that's, you know, even, even people who hate Mike DeWine.
Probably don't think he's going to take a bribe. How about the people around him? That's the question, right? I don't know that there's any criminality there. I don't want to allege that, but because of just the sheer connections that first energy has with, you know, but there's, there's widespread, right?
They're an energy company. Who's lobbying the state house. Of course, they've got a bunch of connections. But if this were just a case of, Hey, this is, you know, just these five Pete, you know, Larry householder and his four, um, his four people who were doing some criminality. Sure. Okay. But when you read the affidavit from the fed, it certainly makes it look like first energy.
You know, was involved in at least some respects. I don't know. Oh, I don't know if that let rises the level of criminality. And I, you know, when you look at all the connections that Mike DeWine, you know, or the people around Mike DeWine have such as, you know, his top legislator liaison was, you know, head of a dark money group that was named.
Yeah, David, before you joined the office, that's certainly questionable, right? You look at past and prior, you know, our current, former staffers of his who have either lobbied on behalf of first energy or are currently lobbying on behalf of first energy. It just starts to look very strange. I think that, you know, and he's he, yeah.
As far as public opinion goes, have him write it. Um, You know, he's been riding high from some of the, you know, the coronavirus response, at least the initial stages of the coronavirus response. At one point, his, his approval rating was like 80%, which is unheard of, you know, that, especially in this day and age, that's, you know, wartime numbers.
Um, and I don't even know if that would be the case at the national level anymore.
James Carville: [00:41:54] There are some heroes in this. I mean, actually it was some Republicans that went to the United States attorney with this story. Am I correct? And that's how I blew up.
Seth Richardson: [00:42:04] Yes, absolutely. Um, the, so the, the person who was running a, the ballot initiative to repeal the, um, house bill six, you know, he's a Republican, he, you know, my colleague, Jeremy Palliser did a great story with him where, you know, he talked about his kind of reasonings for doing it.
And if you look at the affidavit and some of the things he said in there, yeah. It's it, it probably took a lot of time got to do that because let's look it up. Let's look at the arrest real quick. Okay. So. Larry householder is obviously the big name and we just kind of got his fingers in everything.
Everybody on cap square knows Neil Clark. And frankly at some point is probably in business with Neil Clark wants us with this, another connected guy that people know Jeff Long strip, another connected guy that people know these are, it's not so much just that, you know, Larry householder was involved.
It's that, Hey, these kinds of power brokers on cap square were also involved in, you know, if you always to run the risk of, if you. If you're in the position that the informants are aware, they go and they talk about this to the feds and you know, that gets out, how does that hurt their longterm career prospects?
Now, in this case, I don't think it's going to hurt, right? Because of the sheer, uh, you know, magnitude of what's going on here.
Al Hunt: [00:43:14] The sheer magnitude. Boy, you have really outlined that. And when we think that it is in current dollars in current dollars, 10 times bigger than the teapot dome scandal. Wow. That's staggering.
Um, Seth, we can't thank you enough. You really been terrific. And go back to your daytime job and we'll look forward to your podcast when it starts.
Seth Richardson: [00:43:37] I appreciate it. Thanks so much for having me.
James Carville: [00:43:38] Thanks. Thanks a million.
Al Hunt: [00:43:40] Thank you. And I want to thank everyone out there for listening. 20 politics were unfollowed show at Twitter politics or rum emails.
Politics were rome@gmaildotcomaspoliticswarroomatgmail.com. Thank you for subscribing. Please rate the show with a five star review. Be safe wear mask. If you go out socially distance, this virus ain't going away. I'm afraid we'll be back next week. Take care of yourself this week.
James Carville: [00:44:10] Your deal.