Julian Zelizer and Thomas Patterson on the Modern History of the GOP
Much of the blame for the sad state of affairs the United States is facing gets heaped at the feet of Donald J. Trump. But while a fair amount of guilt should be borne by his contemporary enablers, there has also been a clear path over the last 50 years that has led the Republican party towards the existential darkness the president is now dragging them into. Bradlee Professor of Government & the Press at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government Thomas Patterson and Julian Zelizer, the Malcolm Stevenson Forbes Class of 1941 Professor of History and Public Affairs at Princeton School of Public & International Affairs, pinpoint the key players in this grand decline, including Nixon, Cohn, Reagan and Gingrich.
Show Notes:
00:00 – Intro
01:30 – The Right's ticking time bomb
07:00 – Losing minority votes
10:15 – August 3, 1980
18:45 – The rise of Newt
25:30 – The Left's moderate wave
30:00 – More than just city folks
34:15 – Trump's roots run deep
38:30 – Inconceivable graft
43:45 – Outrage of the Week
Transcript:
Al Hunt: [00:00:00] Hello, and welcome to 2020 Politics War Room with James Carville out in the Shenandoah. I'm Al Hunt in Washington. We are proud partners with the SINE Institute and American University in Washington. We have a really great show again, this week. But if you're enjoying it, please subscribe on Apple podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or wherever you listen to podcasts.
We welcome every new listeners and appreciate those who've been with us since the beginning. Now to some really, really great guests, James, you know, for two simple kids from LSU in wake forest, we're going uptown with our guests to the Ivy league. The pressure is to have the most knowledgeable and prolific writers about politics.
Tom Patterson is a Benjamin C Bradlee professor of government and press Shorenstein center at Harvard Kennedy School. His no book Is the Republican Party Destroying Itself and why it needs to reclaim its conservative ideals. Julian Zelizer is a Malcolm Forbes professor of history and public affairs at Princeton University, no longer named Woodrow Wilson school, his book, Newt Gingrich, bringing down the house, the fall of the speaker and rise of the Republican party. Thank you both for being with us, Tom, let me start with you. You make a compelling case that unless Republicans changed their doom, I can hear now are three diehard, Republican listeners screaming.
Hey, prof. In this century for 12 of 20 years, we had the presidency for 14, the house at the time, the Senate and dominated state capitalist. Tell us why we're in peril.
Tom Patterson: [00:01:36] I think time is running out on the GOP. And if you look at the demographics, uh, uh, there's a, there's a cliff I had for the Republican party.
Um, let me give you two examples. Uh, If you look back to the 1930s, 1930, two, 36 and 40 elections, uh, that was the making of the longterm new deal, democratic majority. Uh, and it happened because John Golder's voted two to one democratic across those three elections. Now that's only happened one time since, uh, and it started in 2004, continued through the 2016 election.
Or young voters have voted, uh, about two years, three to two democratic ever since, uh, they now account for everybody under 45 years of age. And as they have aged, they've actually voted more democratic. Uh, and it turned out with greater regularity. Uh, that's going to catch up with the GOP because their voter base is aging.
The second example is, uh, Asian Americans. Uh, if you look at Asian Americans and think about Asian Americans, they ought to be Republicans. Uh, and they once were, they have the highest average unit, uh, family income in America. Uh, They're twice as likely as other Americans to own a small business. And, uh, in 1992, they voted two to one, uh, Republican, uh, since, uh, the last two elections, they voted two to one democratic.
Now, how does a party. Lose a group like that, uh, that they should have, uh, buy in such dramatic fashion over a relatively short period of time. And I think it's a symptomatic, uh, of the problems that the Republican party is having attracting minority votes.
Al Hunt: [00:03:18] Well, you know, um, uh, for a Republican who gets your point, you have to be more inclusive.
You can't keep just appealing to this narrow base if they, if they do that. And they don't March in lockstep. Thank Jeff flake. They're writing their own political obituary. So how do they possibly change?
Tom Patterson: [00:03:35] Well, I think my argument is they can't change in the short, uh, they're anchored there, I think by their ideology.
Uh, By the current president. Uh, and then there's the muscle of right wing, uh, radio and, and television. And, uh, you know, the Republican national committee after they, uh, party loss in 2012, did an autopsy. And, uh, one of the points that made was they have to reach out, uh, Particularly to Latin X voters and, uh, uh, and Asian Americans and, uh, right wing talk, wasn't having it.
Uh, and culture said it would destroy America. Uh, and, uh, and you're quite right. Uh, when someone tries to reach out, uh, As Eric Cantor did. Uh, and he was next in line to become speaker. Uh, he says, you know, maybe we ought to do something yeah. About, uh, this immigration issue. Maybe we ought to have a comprehensive immigration reform.
Uh, well, right wing, uh, media went right after him. And of course he lost his primary, uh, in 2014. And that was pretty much I think, a second. Well, to other Republicans, you better lay low on this issue. Uh, and, uh, Unless they can address it and address it in a, in a really convincing fashion. They're going to continue to have problems with the newer immigrant groups.
Al Hunt: [00:04:52] And it's just gotten worse under Trump. A very important element of this Trump Republican party is to take no prisoners marry your opponents, his enemies, which you're right Chronicles. Um, really well be that it all began with Newt Gingrich and his takedown of how speaker Jim Wright in 1989.
Julian Zelizer: [00:05:11] That's right.
I look at Gingrich and the way he reshaped the strategy of the Republican party in the 1980s, a kind of partisanship that was willing to destroy institutions, destroy really the ability to govern as a path to partisan power. And, uh, part of the point of the book is the story of how it happened. But it's also, this is what the party is about.
Uh, it, it gets a little, uh, too, What this discussion has been. It's very hard for the Republicans now to undo this, uh, because it's been decades in the building and it's been in the prioritization of partisanship over every other. Value that elected officials have. And we see the dysfunction everyday right now during the pandemic.
Al Hunt: [00:05:59] Yeah, we sure do. You know, there's also a new book on Joe McCarthy and I can't tell you thinking there's a direct line from McCarthy to Roy Cohn, to gang rich to Trump attack. Contrition indited Congressman once said is bullshit. And the repeated and repeated takes hold. And that's what they've done. And to some sad extent it's worked
Julian Zelizer: [00:06:19] for them.
Absolutely. Right. Uh, and the, the Gingrich transition is important because Joe McCarthy didn't become the Senate minority leader, uh, or the Senate majority leader Gingrich did become the house minority whip and then the speaker of the house. So the change that you see in the eighties, and we see this with president Trump is that element of the party.
Moves into the leadership. And once it's there, it's not contained
Al Hunt: [00:06:45] change takeover. And then we're going to also have a good Princeton Harvard dialogue between two of the
James Carville: [00:06:50] right. Oh God. I want to go to festival Patterson for a second. So what you said about Asians, I assumed that the Asians were, you know, heavily populated at which they are in California, Washington state.
Do you know that Texas is going to vote almost 5% share Asian could be three in Georgia. Two and a half in North Carolina. I mean, this is an important demographic that you pointed out it in close elections, it's going to matter dim losing the Asians.
Tom Patterson: [00:07:20] Absolutely. This actually is the fastest growing ethnic group in the United States.
They're not about 6% of the total population. And in States like Texas, uh, you know, they're, they increasingly, we have voting muscle. Uh, a lot of the Asian Americans in Texas are Vietnamese Americans who came over during the boatlift. And, uh, but if you look across the South, uh, you're there increasingly, uh, Yeah, you see larger, larger numbers of Asian Americans and, uh, and they're voting overwhelmingly democratic.
James Carville: [00:07:55] Okay. I want to go to professors out. You talked about my friend, John Barry has become quite famous because of the great influenza wrote a book on the Congress during the, the gym ride stuff he actually had access to. Right. And John thinks that the right stuff was overblown, not just by Gingrich, but by the press.
And I think the same thing happened. In the email of this quote, email scandal on quote, how much, if their ability to succeed, rest on their ability to be able to move to prostate COVID stories, which. In a more blown up fashion and they actually are,
Julian Zelizer: [00:08:34] Oh, it was essential. Then John was incredibly helpful.
As I wrote this book, he's a friend and he gave me access to a lot of the papers he had, but Gingrich capitalized on the press. In the 1980s, he used channels like C-SPAN as a way to just send out his smear directly to viewers. And then he used the work of investigative journalists who were. Really just doing bits and pieces of stories about right.
And then weaving together uncooked, uh, parts of his record into this grand narrative. He called speaker, right? The most corrupt speaker in American history and the journalists who weren't. Writing this for Gingrich ended up playing directly into his hands. And I think this is something the Wright has done repeatedly.
And it's true that you saw this with the emails during 2016, and I suspect you're going to see more of it in 2020. The media is a base for the modern Republican party as much as any other outlet. So
James Carville: [00:09:36] this question addressed to both of you. I'm 75. I started LSU in 1962. I think, I know the reason that the Republican party Rose in the South, I really do.
And I think every Southern white liberal, my age knows, but I want to go to event that happened in the Shelby County, Mississippi, August 3rd, 1980. Yeah. That was, you know, of course payment, brilliant things to use the state's rights. And you still have people like David Brooks defending that speech. Did either one of you, or both of you comment on that sort of in the Shelby County speech and its role in the growth of the Republican body playground,
Tom Patterson: [00:10:17] I'd be happy to jump in on that.
Uh, James, uh, so this is, uh, Reagan's first speech after the Republican national convention. And, uh, and it was at the County fair, uh, very close to where three civil rights workers were killed, uh, during, uh, The civil rights movement, uh, and he made no mention of that. And basically, uh, he pursued a version of, uh, of Nixon's Southern strategy.
In fact, I think Reagan's role in solidifying the South is underestimated in many ways. Uh, it was Reagan who basically brought white evangelicals fully into the Republican party. And then he, uh, he really doubled down, uh, on Nixon's, uh, racial appeals, uh, We forget that Reagan, um, opposed to 64 civil rights act, the 65 voting rights act, the 68 fair housing act.
Uh, now those were settled issues by the time he, by the time he became president, but unsettled, uh, where the busing and affirmative action issues. And he went poorly at them and it was Reagan, I think, who had largely conflated, uh, welfare with, uh, minorities, uh, With his, uh, uh, appeals, uh, about welfare Queens and driving around in Cadillacs and having extra kids out of wedlock so they can get more welfare money.
Uh, and today, if you look at the polls, even on the Republican side, you see a lot of that conflation or they think about welfare largely in the context of black Americans.
Al Hunt: [00:11:53] Let me, let me jump in and I want to bring a Julian, but I do want you guys to you talk to each other, but I have to tell you this door.
I first met Newt Gingrich. When someone set up a lunch in 1974, I don't know why I did it. Hawk and dove restaurant. And he was an incredible first date. Julian. He went and he talked about how his role model was Linwood Holton the progressive governor of Virginia. He said Zed. The party has to be pro-environment pro civil rights.
He was disdainful of Reagan. And it was only on the second or third or fourth date. I realized he doesn't believe in the thing. He doesn't have any principal except self-interest, unless they take race. He started off, as I said, that's being a champion of civil rights. Then he used race. Whenever Paul, he wants admonish Chris Christie, not to appoint a Muslim judge because they all believe in Sharia law, he turned right on immigration.
He defended. Trump on the birther. This is a man without any beliefs really except himself and self
Julian Zelizer: [00:12:45] promotion. No, absolutely. But his belief, his power power for himself and power for his party. The other example is his ethics. You know, he was going after Jim Wright in 1989 in large part around a book deal where.
Jim Wright, the speaker sold books in bulk of, of speeches, uh, which was legal. It was, it was fine with the ethics rules, but it looked bad. Uh, and at that time time, he himself is under investigation for a book deal. And for the way that he raised money from interest groups to promote the book. So this is a story with Newt Gingrich.
Uh, and obviously it culminates in the 1998, uh, impeachment, uh, which you guys know well, uh, where he is not living at all by the principles he's talking about, which suggests he doesn't really care about those principles, but I would just kind of jump just
Al Hunt: [00:13:40] to, just to tell people, I mean, you're being kind.
He was, he was leading the impeachment against bill Clinton for a line about sex while as a married man, he was sleeping with a house staffer. So just, just to put that on the record, go ahead.
Julian Zelizer: [00:13:53] No, that's exactly right. And you know, then to show, but speech is important and I think there's a lot of people looking back at conservatism now and trying to make sense of the movement because at the time it's a classic example of, of using.
Kind of coded moments or coded words too, appeal to white backlash politics. And there's always this debate about Reagan doing that, what it meant, what it meant to supporters that I think what we, I see certainly with the Trump presidency is a lot of this is just coming out in the open. Now the code words aren't even used.
Uh, but I think it's been a part of conservatism that some Republicans like Stuart Stevens are starting to reckoned with. Um, and, and I think people need to look at moments like Reagan's in the show, but speech to understand exactly how the coalition was being stitched together.
James Carville: [00:14:41] Right. Also Reagan referred to a young black is strapping young bucks.
I wonder what, that's not even a doll with. I mean, honestly, and yeah, I mean, come on. I said I've been, but, but to, to, to move forward here in the professor Patterson, it looks like they made a bet on the South. And if trends are correct, it looks like the South is turning on them, particularly from Virginia to Florida.
I mean, you take Virginia to carry even. So even South North Carolina, for sure, but soon to be South Carolina, Georgia, for sure. They have all kind of the demographic composition of these States are changing where that kind of message is becoming less and less attractive. And Texas is another example, right?
There's some champs, the biggest, most popular state Trump carries is Tennessee, but maybe both of you could weigh in on how the South has kind of turned on. The revolve a good body as we know it today, but I think will, was born in Shelby County, Mississippi on August 3rd, 1980. But at any rate I'd like to get your reaction to that?
Tom Patterson: [00:15:52] Well, I think the Republican party is stuck with the South that, uh, it started with, um, you know, in many ways the South redefined the Republican party, um, If you look at the Republican party in the fifties, early sixties, and then compare it to what it was under Reagan, uh, it had completely reinvented itself.
Um, yeah, it flipped on the race issue. Uh, it would become very conservative on social and cultural issues like abortion, um, and it become the party of small government. Uh, and that was not as legacy. Uh, And it, it started out as a federal party, uh, and, uh, by the 1980s, it was a states' rights party. Uh, very much rooted.
In Southern values. And I think that's where it's stuck and the South is changing as you suggest. And, uh, but the Republican party has difficulty, I think, accommodating that change for reasons we've talked about. Uh, and as the South changes, uh, more and more of these places are coming into play. So obviously North Carolina is already in play Georgia increasingly.
So Florida is clearly in play and, uh, I think within two or three elections, uh, Taxes is going to be a toss up. So, uh, You know, demographic change nationally. It's not only catching up with the GOP, but in the South, particularly
Julian Zelizer: [00:17:18] if I could jump in, there's another change that happens. I think in that period.
And it's, it's the Republic kind of losing as much interest. This gets back to Gingrich in governance that, uh, it becomes almost an anti governance party that it embraces this form of destructive partisanship. Where the mechanisms of legislating, of negotiating, of making decisions, not only bipartisanship, but even within the party start to fall apart.
It's a party trafficking and disinformation. It's willing to take processes like the budget, uh, and use them in partisan battle. And, uh, I think, you know, this has been a long time coming. I do think that shifts starts in the eighties. I think a lot of, uh, younger Republicans are comfortable with this.
Because a dysfunctional government fits what they're trying to argue philosophically. Uh, and, and what people are seeing now, including in these Southern areas is what this means. When we are faced with a genuine, uh, horrendous national crisis, like a pandemic, it renders the leadership of the party, simply unable to deal with the policies needed.
And so I think that's another issue shift that is also playing out right now, which might hurt. The parties standing, uh, in places like Florida that are struggling right now as the virus surges.
Al Hunt: [00:18:40] Um, we've, we've mentioned several touchdowns, all of which I think terribly relevant, the Gingrich speaker, right then the Shoba County fair, uh, Lyndon Johnson in 1965 said when he signed the voting rights act, We have now seated the South for a generation.
It's actually been two generations, but I think another one was George. George w at George H w Bush, I think really did believe in governance. I didn't agree with a lot of his policies. There was the budget deal, whether the American for disabilities act and he went in the message to Republican senators and him was in 1992.
You're gone. Uh, I think that was another touchstone. Cause I do think, as I say, I disagree with some of his policies. He was a governance Republican and been one sense.
Tom Patterson: [00:19:23] Right. I think increasingly it's a party that doesn't tolerate it's moderate. And I think a George H w Bush might've been the first example, but, um, You know, and Julian can speak more to this than I can, but, uh, you know, one of the things, things that Gingrich did was try to purge as many moderates from the partying committee leadership as he could, and try to recruit as many are right-wing challengers.
Uh, and, uh, when they had an open seat, right. When candidates, uh, to shift the party to the right, uh, you know, I, I think the party has moved very. Very strongly to the right and, uh, pretty well locked in place. One of the things that's keeping them there, by the way. Yeah, his right wing media. Uh, if you're a man or within the Republican party in the leadership, uh, elected position, uh, you gotta keep your head down, uh, when it comes to the, uh, Right when he media era, cancer's an example, a Jeb bushes candidacy, I think for the presidency in 2016 and other example, they went after him from the day he announced.
Uh, and, uh, there were other things obviously that, uh, uh, crippled the Bush candidacy in 2016. Hell, they're gone after Liz
Al Hunt: [00:20:34] Cheney now.
Tom Patterson: [00:20:35] Yeah, no. And they listened to the, you know, Jonathan Kate is another example. Uh, you know, John McCain was a pretty conservative on policy, pretty conservative on policy issues, but he believes in accommodation, he believes in governing and, uh, at the time of his death, he was twice as popular among, uh, Democrats, as you want among Republicans.
And, uh, you look at the reason for that. Well, look to right wing talk radio and how they worked McCain over week after week.
James Carville: [00:21:01] So Julian, I have an observation. If things go the way that I think they're going to go, we're going to end up with a massive democratic victory in November. And the Republican party is going to have to figure out what to do.
Uh, why do you think? And by the way, if you look at the 2022 Senate map, it is awful for Republicans, just awful. So if let's just assume for the moment that I am, which is, I agree as always a dangerous assumption, but if I'm correct and they suffer a big wipe out and I'd like to get new Jew and new Tom, and then you out.
And what do you, how do you think a new Republican party is going to
Julian Zelizer: [00:21:47] emerge from this? Well, I mean, I, as the historian, I see things both ways all the time, and I think there's two paths. One, if you're right. And I guess I'm still more on the fence if this happens, especially with the questions of voter turnout, uh, and, and how the pandemic affects that.
Uh, if the defeat is another 1984, I, I do believe. Or another 1964. I do believe that's the kind of massive impact the party needs to shake some room for younger leaders to start to say, this is not a path for the next decade or so that we're killing our entire party. We're killing our coalition. This isn't going to work anymore.
We're we're rendering ourselves powerless rather than keeping ourselves in power. So, so if your prognostication was right. I could clearly see the only path that makes sense right now for the party to change that said, you know, it could be an, a moment like 2002 nine where, uh, the democratic victories were not as grand as they might be this time.
It was still a narrower, uh, uh, situation in Congress. But the party doubled down on what it was doing. And, you know, it, it might go the Tucker Carlson path rather than the path of trying to reform and fix what what's gone wrong after these decades. So, I mean, I, I see that first path possible. If the victory outcomes are what you say.
Um,
Tom Patterson: [00:23:19] so, uh, yeah, let's assume that a year, right, James. And, um, and let's also assume that the Democrats don't kind of mess it up, uh, if they come into power in 2021, uh, I think the Republican party is going to have a lot of difficulty reinventing itself, uh, uh, for a couple of reasons. Uh, one and again, referring to the autopsy that they RNC did after the 2012 election.
I don't think right wing talk is going to hear it. Uh, that's not there yet, which of the party, and they're going to fight against, uh, any kind of change of that kind. In fact, uh, after the 2018 midterm debacle for the Republican party, uh, Limbo and others argued that the party's mistake in 2018 was that it to moderate, uh, an effort.
And, uh, and then you look at the base. Uh, this basis was Trump, this basis of popular space. Uh, I think they believe, uh, in where the Republican party stands right now. And again, you look at the 2016, uh, Presidential primary on the Republican side and how difficult it is for a moderate to do well there. So, and there isn't much moderate leadership left in the party.
So where's that leadership going to come from? So I think it's going to take a series of election defeats. Uh, increasingly devastating to the party before it's going to look carefully at itself and reinvent itself.
Al Hunt: [00:24:51] No, I, I agree. I think, uh, uh, Trump, uh, Trump leaves, uh, in November next January, but Trump is and doesn't, and I think there's going to be a lot of finger pointing, retribution that people
Julian Zelizer: [00:25:03] who they'll call it a fake
Al Hunt: [00:25:04] election, they'll say that they'll people who deserved him.
Uh, I think it's going to be a bloodbath far worse than 1965. And whatever you thought of him. Nixon was one of the few people who could have kind of bridge that divide, uh, back in 1967, 68. I doubt this a Republican out there could do that. And I think Tom and Julian are dead on, right. It's going to take a series of devastating defeats.
Tom Patterson: [00:25:28] Well, I'll
James Carville: [00:25:28] just make one observation, man. I've came of political awareness. The most famous Republican was Dwight Eisenhower. Today is taco Carlson. I'm just giving you some idea
Tom Patterson: [00:25:42] it's gone. That might be news to Donald Trump, James, but, uh,
James Carville: [00:25:52] so w what's going to happen. I think if elections as successful as I am the democratic party, that depression fixated on the left wing of the democratic party. The liberal wing of whatever. I think the Democrat, the congressional party is going to be more moderate than anybody anticipated, because look, what senators are going to be coming to town.
I mean, Cal Cunningham and Steve Bullock and John Hickenlooper and Mark Kelly Al gross. Uh, maybe MJ Hager. Yeah. I mean, what are we going to be
Julian Zelizer: [00:26:27] sending Sara Gideon?
James Carville: [00:26:29] Yeah. Sara Gideon. I mean, not to fight anybody at all here. Uh, maybe Amy McGrath and maybe Jamie Jamie Harrison, but, but what's coming to town.
Is not going to be a bunch of people from the Bronx or Queens or central Boston. The party is going to end up. I think in some ways he's more, I don't say use the word moderate, but less leftist. Then people are going to think. Good. Can I get a reaction on that?
Julian Zelizer: [00:26:58] Well, that's not unlike 2018. I mean, the midterms created that tension or exacerbated the tension.
The Democrats are always more divided than the GOP these days, uh, with, you know, Katie hunters. The AFCs Pelosi's been balancing all of this, but I do think there's areas of policy that can bring even some of those moderates, uh, issues, uh, such as the environment that whoever the leader would be in the Senate.
I see Schumer would still be, but I don't know, uh, can use as coalitional issues. Uh, and even issues of, of creating accountability after everything that's happened under president Trump. So, so there might be ways even with what you're saying, which would be true, uh, that the party isn't in some kind of internal civil war.
Uh, and I think there'll be so much energy after the Trump presidency and after everything that has happened, uh, even public health as a policy issue, that will be an umbrella issue. That a conservative Senator, democratic Senator and someone from New York can easily focus their attention on that. I think that problem can be overcome
Al Hunt: [00:28:12] Julian column coming out in about an hour, which I agree with James totally in the Senate equally true of the house.
I think we're going to pick up house seats and the vast majority of the house democratic caucus will be. Pelosi Democrats, which just tells you how much that term has changed. That really is mainstream left of center Democrats. And the AOC is, are quite skillful, will make noise, but Pelosi will run the house and that will be good for a
James Carville: [00:28:38] president Biden.
So, Tom, I won't ask you stuff because you're, I've been following you and reading you my entire political career. Obviously, Pat, a great deal of respect for the observation. What is the. Most hopeful thing that you see about American politics now, and they gotta be something hopeful somewhere. Shit. It just has to be so help me out here, man.
Tom Patterson: [00:29:05] I do think America's better. Angels are stepping up by, um, you know, I, we are a deeply divided country, but, um, you know, you look at the opinion polls, uh, around, uh, these police killings, uh, And, um, I'm pretty optimistic actually that, uh, No one election never changes things fundamentally, but I think that this election is a turning point.
And if the Democrats take power, uh, I think there'll be a new town. And, uh, I agree entirely with, uh, Allen, Julia and that the real muscle in the Republican or the democratic party is, is Senator laughed. It's not left. Uh, you know, Portraying the democratic party is as a left party is really a Republican talking point that gets magnified, uh, by the media.
But, uh, you know, this is the left. That's where the muscle is. It's not only at the leadership, it's at the base. Uh, so well we had
James Carville: [00:30:05] to do it. The Democrats headache, clear presentation, Bernie Sanders was the most message discipline candidate I've ever seen in my life. He raised more money than anybody. He had a clear view of what he wanted to do as president Joe Biden was just who he was.
Democrats overwhelmingly, not even close, chose. Fine. I mean the rank and file Democrat votes in primaries. I mean, this was not a close call yet. The cultural immediate influence. That's the far left has far outstrips its ability to connect with voters outside of a few urban hotspots. And Julie, do I have a point here?
I mean, cause it just seems evident to me that people voting and they said, well, we got to do this food Sanders after respect him. What I would say on TV let's respect the democratic voter. Don't they count?
Julian Zelizer: [00:31:09] Well, I, I think you're right. Uh, and I, I think. Obviously that the democratic party has to understand the leaders were where the weight of the party is.
There's still ways just to get energy, uh, from the progressive parts of the party. That's, you know, historically FDR drew on. People who were much to the left of him as he crafted ideas, such as social security or unemployment benefits, LBJ is the same kind of story. There's a functional way to handle this problem.
You're talking about. Even if the media is more focused on, on the left wing elements, someone like hello. So understands how to bring that together. And. Uh, I, I don't think it's necessarily an insurmountable problem and it doesn't mean you kind of have to banish one side or the other look at Biden. I mean, Biden's gotten the nomination, he remains very strong in the polls, but he's actually moved the left a bit on, on a number of issues and he's doing okay.
So I think coalitional is the way to go for. This party, that's broadening. It's a good problem for the party to have, you know, when you don't have this problem, it means you're the Republicans. And it means that you just have a very narrow slice of the electorate. And then it's easy just to be consistent and focus on one set of issues.
Al Hunt: [00:32:30] Yeah, no, I agree. But a bit, but we're going to cut. We got, we got several more minutes, but. Julian, let me say one thing. I take a back seat to no one in my disdain for Newt Gingrich, just because of what I think is a total lack of character. One thing, as you know, he has remained on the national scene, able to command, you know, television invited to Aspen Institute seminars for over 40 years.
That's really remarkable. Almost. There's almost no politics I can think of other than Edward Kennedy who remained on the Nash other than the president, uh, or an Edward Kennedy who is remained on the national scene that long. How does he do it?
Julian Zelizer: [00:33:07] Well, it's the same skills that use to rise in the beginning.
I mean, he really understands very well how the media works. I think Twitter's a natural platform for him because he's always understood how you can give context mercy and controversial statements and garner attention. Uh, and. Also, he is one of the senior statesmen of the party. I know everyone likes to point to the Bush family, but it's really new Gingrich and that is the conversation we're having.
Meaning that is what the party is. And so it's natural. There's a lot of space for him in the conservative ecosystem of the media, uh, and, and think tanks. Continue being a presence, but, but he is someone who understands his environment extraordinarily well. Uh, he has from the beginning of his career and he does right through the Mount Rushmore speech the other day, when he was one of the first to give positive commentary or after the Chris Wallace interview, he knows exactly what to say.
So we'll all pay attention.
Al Hunt: [00:34:10] What was it that Ezra, what was it as your client said about
James Carville: [00:34:13] Newt Gingrich? The best quote in the history. He said he knew gainers a stupid person's idea. What a smart person sounds like. I just sell it, which I would have said that I'm just, I w I mean, just the most devastating and the reason quote is so devastating is true, you know?
I mean, I think that sums him up. You know, in so many different ways that you couldn't, but his, his ability to, if you just have to sit back sometimes in awe of the fact that he's been relevant for so long, he's like Bob Woodward. I can't remember a time when he wasn't around. Right
Julian Zelizer: [00:34:55] now it's, it's absolutely true.
And he's used, he's always used his professorial background, a PhD in history to package himself as this big idea as Republican. But I think it's just not what he's really about. It's this other side, which is really what he's up to, what his contribution is. Meaning raw. Pure partisan strategy. Uh, but he uses this other image very well to keep himself relevant that way
Al Hunt: [00:35:22] Julianne.
And when, when I was at Bloomberg, we broke a story when he was running for president that while he was railing against the special interest in Washington, uh, he was, he was getting, uh, you know, lots of dough from Freddie Mac. And when he finally had to admit it, he said, well, I wasn't a lobbyist for Freddie Mac.
I was their historian. He is
Julian Zelizer: [00:35:41] shameless. And that's always been true. I've
James Carville: [00:35:44] probably done 20 paid speeches with dude gang rich. And I just sitting there, you know, on the stage and you gotta be nice because realtors and Apollo builders of beer distributors and paying you a lot of money. And I just sit there as naked man.
This guy is really full of shit, but you know, people would like clapping, you know, nod. Like he was really saying something. It was, it was truly like amazing to watch this in real time.
Al Hunt: [00:36:11] Yeah. As I said earlier, he is a great first and second day, man, what allows you relationship Tom Patterson. Let me ask you this.
As you look at the Republican party and I think your pessimism about the near term is came out. It's justified. Are there any one or two figures you say, boy, they have the potential, uh, if only the party would listen to them or is it just barren now?
Tom Patterson: [00:36:35] I think it's pretty well stripped itself of the kind of leaders that, uh, you know, you'd look, the Republican party had this problem, uh, in the late 19th century where, uh, you know, it got into bed with the robber barons, uh, But there were some people like that are Roosevelt that can lead them out of that.
Yeah. That particular problem. Uh, boy, I look around in the, in the, in the GOP and, uh, I don't see any leaders that are even close to being able to provide that kind of leadership, uh, much less be listened to, uh, if, uh, if they try it,
Julian Zelizer: [00:37:14] it is a party that nominated elected Donald Trump as president and a party that has stood by Donald Trump, despite everything we've seen.
I think everyone in this conversation has followed politics, has seen it, and it's clear how abnormal and how. Destructive what's going on in the white houses. And when a party still embraces this, when a party produces this, this goes incredibly deep and what the GOP is now about and has become. And I just, I think it's going to be really hard to just see one person leading them out of what really is political darkness,
James Carville: [00:37:52] by the way, if any of y'all kept up with this story out of Ohio.
I mean shit. I've heard of corruption before. I know it's an indictment and not on trial, but man, this stuff is I poppy,
Al Hunt: [00:38:05] the speaker of the house was indicted yesterday, along with four top Republican lobbyists in the state. I mean really, really prominent people. And it was basically, um, I mean, something approaching James, maybe I'm exaggerating, but something like a $60 million shakedown
James Carville: [00:38:21] million dollar bribes.
Yes. 60 million. I mean, They're going to, I can tell you when you have this level of corruption and never forget this, the number one issue in American politics is corruption. No one talks about it in the right way. This is going to hurt them profoundly in Ohio. I mean, if I assume this, you know, public and us attorney in Cincinnati, at least he was point about Republican.
Al Hunt: [00:38:48] It is
James Carville: [00:38:50] eye-popping. I mean shit. I've heard of like giving people jobs or contracts, you know, the architect, building engineering, I mean $60 billion and they got up just energy company, nuclear, the plant got a billion dollars in state aid. It
Al Hunt: [00:39:07] was a great investment for them.
Julian Zelizer: [00:39:11] Right.
Tom Patterson: [00:39:11] Well, you'd think that'd be smart enough to do official corruption then not the illegal forum, but, uh, you know, another reason indicator of where the Republican party is, uh, I don't know if you followed the selection of the state party chair down in Texas, but, uh, yeah, they picked, uh, right wing conspiracy.
There is, uh, You know, veiled, racist, I mean, unbelievable who they would choose to lead the party. That gives you a good sense of what not only the, the base is, but what the activist base is in a state like Texas. And certainly there are other States where, uh, you know, In Massachusetts, I think Republicans have held to that, to their values.
And, you know, Charlie Baker, I think, has been an excellent governor in this state, but these one of the last few kind of progressive Republicans still standing in that party.
Al Hunt: [00:40:08] For sure. Hey James, do you have any final words?
James Carville: [00:40:10] Well, I mean, I just, I love doing this show and I mean, I'm so glad that we got these gasoline we have today.
I think it just so much. Expresses what our values and the show is that we get people that know what they're talking about. Have a good conversation. It goes on to say him. I'd recommend both of these books to anybody that has anything more than just a marginal interest in politics. I mean, it's a real privilege to be able to interview, uh, Thomas, you and Julian.
Just a big honor to have you on the show. I wish y'all
Al Hunt: [00:40:43] well, I do too. And I would just say to all the sinners. Tom Patterson's is a Republican party destroying itself. And Julian Zar bringing down the house, the fall of speaker and the rise of the Republican party. They both really, if you care about politics are must reads Julian and Tom, thank you so much.
And I'm glad we didn't get into any Princeton, Harvard rivalry
Julian Zelizer: [00:41:05] thing. Oh, Alan James.
Tom Patterson: [00:41:07] Thank you so much. It's been a pleasure. And Julian, this has been nice being on with you.
Julian Zelizer: [00:41:12] Yes. Thank you, everyone,
Al Hunt: [00:41:21] man. That was good. I mean that, those, those truly are two dripping books. They, you know, they really are. I mean, I started off in both with a fair amount of knowledge and I learned a lot in reading both books.
James Carville: [00:41:33] Right? I mean, just, I think this is so much of what our show needs to be about. It is about just seeing these.
Can see them, these kinds of books and ideas that come forward and giving them a real airing so they can talk about what they found and what they believe and what they researched ourselves. Why don't you tell our. Listening to the subscribers. What were thinking about doing next week? Cause this is going to be a little bit of a different kind of show.
Al Hunt: [00:42:00] What we want to do next week is to try to address the question on the state legislative races. That's the sleeper issue this year. Uh, if Joe Biden wins the white house, which I think we all believe is a near certainty, the Democrats take control of the Senate. They add to the house. They went a couple of important governorships and they lose in the state legislative races in North Carolina, Texas, Georgia, Florida, uh, Wisconsin.
It's going to be a reduction of 2011 when they controlled the redistricting. And they went for a whole decade and they were able to have a huge amount back on the state and federal level. And we really want to. Address that next week. We'd love to have a guest like Kelly Ward Burton, if we can. But James, it is a really, really big if under the radar issue,
James Carville: [00:42:48] it's a huge issue and it's in Pat so much and it's so not glamorous.
And I, I just want us to use our forum to bring this message to, to democratic, particularly democratic donors that were getting clobbered. Uh,
raising $30 million in and that's wonderful, but in, you know, as you know, the, the smaller, the race, the more impact that money is going to have, if you give Biden a thousand dollars, that's going to have much less impact than given the state Senate candidate in Georgia, a thousand dollars. And, you know, I, so I hope we can get Kelly if we don't, we'll get someone else.
But I think this really merits a serious conversation. Yeah,
Al Hunt: [00:43:39] well, there was a, there was a book written on what the Republicans did in 2000 as an 11, uh, with the, uh, athlete, uh, title rat fucked, uh, in which, uh, brilliantly captured exactly the way they diabolically and legally set out to dominate redistricting after 2010 census.
Uh, and if there's repeat it, that Democrats will pay a price for the whole decade. So I absolutely agree, James, before we go, you know, last week we started to do the outrage of the week. You can't do it singular when it comes to Trump, we weren't going to do Trump, but I just two things that just struck me that the lesser one though, incredibly outrageous is that he tried to get the Brits to move the British open to his golf course.
I mean, honest to God, this is about making money. That's what this presidency is about. That really, really, really is, is profoundly offensive, but worse. This guy is trying to start a race war starting in Portland and wherever else he can go.
James Carville: [00:44:36] Well, there's one outrage of all outrageous and that's the shit and Ohio.
I mean, this is just . This is like, it, it may be it's so big. The public can't get date. Arms around it. I doubt that it's just stunning the amount of dollars it talking about. Right. And apparently they have, they have documents. They have anything that you, you can think of. And this is going to hurt in Ohio.
Yeah. I promise you. This is. This is unbelievable.
Al Hunt: [00:45:09] I would love to go and let's get a adjustment of the costs. The bribery and teapot, dome, or Watergate are the worst things that any
Julian Zelizer: [00:45:19] Edwards did
Al Hunt: [00:45:20] in Louisiana or James, Michael Curley and Boston.
Tom Patterson: [00:45:23] And when you adjusted
Julian Zelizer: [00:45:24] or current dollars,
Al Hunt: [00:45:25] it won't come anywhere
Tom Patterson: [00:45:26] near
Al Hunt: [00:45:26] $60 million.
James Carville: [00:45:29] In addition to. To the, on the state legislatures, maybe we need to find the best kind of report in Ohio,
Tom Patterson: [00:45:35] just covering this thing and
James Carville: [00:45:37] talk about it because I can't give my, I can't, I can't get my arms around it.
Al Hunt: [00:45:41] I think that's a good idea.
Julian Zelizer: [00:45:42] That's a good idea.
Al Hunt: [00:45:43] Uh, well, all right. This was a great show. I, again, I thank Tom and Julian so much, and I hope you're safe out there in the Shenandoah, even if
James Carville: [00:45:51] alright, well, not bored when we do the show.
So that's
Al Hunt: [00:45:54] good. And, and, and, and don't forget tonight, Thursday night, Tony Fowchee. Those out the first ball.
James Carville: [00:46:01] We won't be there. Watch it. Go
Al Hunt: [00:46:05] now. Go Nez. Thank you, James.
James Carville: [00:46:07] Alright, man. You bet. Right.
Al Hunt: [00:46:08] And I want to thank all of you for that. Listening to 2020 politics were wrong. Follow the show on Twitter at politics or room.
Uh, email politics were rome@gmail.com. That's politics, war rum@gmail.com. Thank you for subscribing, please rate the show. With a five star review. We hope we'll be back next week. And I promise
Julian Zelizer: [00:46:30] it'll be
Al Hunt: [00:46:31] equally good. Well with GPS, let's just put it that way. Take care.