Michael Gartner on the Iowa Caucuses and Trump Plays the War Card
James Carville and Al Hunt discuss the President's smokescreen assassination of Iranian General Suleimani to distract from impeachment and Bibi Netanyahu's indictment leading up to the Israeli election. Pulitzer prize-winning editor Michael Gartner was Al's editor at The Wall Street Journal before running NBC News putting Tim Russert on the air, and he shares with us the nuance - both dysfunction and charm - of the Iowa Caucuses.
Al Hunt: Welcome to the War Room. I'm Al Hunt along with the legendary, I mean legendary campaign manager and strategist James Carville for another edition of our podcast, where we talk to really smart people about government, society and most of all we throw in a little bit of sports, but most of all politics.
James Carville: Albert, I am delighted to be here. It's too bad we don't have anything to talk about in the news at this [00:00:30] time.
Al Hunt: Yeah, I know. These dull weeks are killing us. But if you didn't hear our conversation out there, you didn't hear our conversation with Nancy Pelosi, go back in the archives and checkout any conversation that you might've missed over the last three months.
James Carville: Yeah, and thank you for listening. It's a lot of fun and I'm going to have fun all this year because it's going to be a really compelling, fascinating political year.
Al Hunt: Yeah, it sure is. And please subscribe, rate and review the show on Apple podcast, [00:01:00] Spotify, Stitcher, Google podcast, and wherever you might get your podcast.
James Carville: Go to politicswarroom.com for full transcripts of each show.
Al Hunt: And now speaking of great guests, let's go to this week James.
James Carville: All right.
Al Hunt: Our guest is an Iowa original James. He's Michael Gartner, half the state reveres him, the other half, we'll leave that out. He's a native. He was once my editor at the Wall Street Journal and then the editor and publisher [00:01:30] of The Des Moines Register, president of NBC news, where his greatest accomplishment may have been to put Tim Russert on television. Publisher of the Ames Tribune where he won a Pulitzer Prize for defending lap dancing on first amendment grounds. Every summer he's the mayor or the fabulous principal part. Michael, it's great to have you on the show.
Michael Gartner: Thank you, Al. It's wonderful to be here and to be with you again and I'm not going to tell any stories about you.
Al Hunt: Thank goodness. You know your state, [00:02:00] you've been there for many years and you're close to prominent Democrats like Tom Vilsack, and the Harkins. Caucus is only three and a half weeks to go, what's your sense?
Michael Gartner: I think it's just, I've never seen anything like it in all the years I've been watching it, it's just unsettled. I don't think that there's going to be somebody march out of here directly toward the nomination. It's, part of it is because there's so many people, part of it is [00:02:30] another laid entry from the former mayor of New York and spending all that money. He's not out here, but he's all over the airwaves here like he is everywhere. And it's just kind of a mess and there's going to be a huge turnout for the caucuses, I'm convinced to that. And your friend Ann Selzer is convinced to that too.
Al Hunt: Well, she is the legendary as we call her. I remember we used to, at the Wall Street Journal, we always had to refer to highly [00:03:00] respected Carleton College.
Michael Gartner: Highly regarded, Al. Once again, you don't quite have the right word.
Al Hunt: Highly regarded, I'm sorry. And now it's the legendary, and everyone's waiting for her poll. Of course she won't tell us when she's going to do it. But there was a poll out last week, CBS, and it was extraordinary. It showed literally a three-way tie Biden, Buttigieg and Sanders, with Warren about seven points behind everybody else in single digits. I've never seen anything like that. And I don't know what it tells us about the outcome, but it does [00:03:30] suggest maybe they're pretty fluid.
Michael Gartner: And a lot of people haven't made up their minds yet. I talk to people and those three have a solid base as does Warren and Klobuchar is coming up. But I think there's a whole lot of people who changed their mind. And when you talk to anybody out here and say, who do you favor? The first answer is anybody who can beat Trump. And nobody says, well, I favor Warren, or I don't like Warren because of Medicare. [00:04:00] Or I don't like Buttigieg because of his view on foreign relations. Or I don't like this person or that person. It's always, I want somebody who can beat Trump, except when you get the Biden and then people say, oh, I like Biden, I hope he doesn't screw it up.
Al Hunt: Well, there's cause for that concern.
Michael Gartner: Yeah.
Al Hunt: You mentioned Trump. Let me just ask this and then turn it over to James. He of course ordered the killing of the Iranian general, he's playing the war card [00:04:30] right now. How does that play out there?
Michael Gartner: Well, I mean the state went for Trump. And there's a whole lot of people who still love Trump and I don't think he'll win. I don't think he'd beat anybody the next time out around here. But the economy is pretty good as he said. And rural Iowa seems to like him, although there's no [00:05:00] reason in the world for them to do it. He's messed up the farm economy with the tariffs and everything, but he sent them all a big check a while back. Everyone of these guys got a lot of money per acre and they cashed those checks. But I just don't get Al.
Al Hunt: Well, I don't either. James Carville weigh in.
James Carville: Well, our first show, and this show is very big that the levels of engagement are astronomically and historically high. And [00:05:30] our first guest of the year was Mike McDonald who is a Politic professor at University of Florida, I think the foremost expert on voter engagement and turnout. My question to you, Michael, and knowing Iowa caucus is, there's going to be a massive number of people show up.
Michael Gartner: That's right.
James Carville: You have any concerns? You had been part of any conversations about how they are going to handle it logistically, or it's just going to be some kind of nightmare. Let's go to caucus night [00:06:00] or caucus day in Iowa and what's going to happen or what can happen or anything like that, just with that much interest.
Michael Gartner: Well, have you guys ever been to a caucus? I mean, it's just goofy. The way it works, you go and you declare and then your candidate's not viable. And then people ask you to come over for their candidate and everything. And there's going to be a whole lot of people at these caucuses who've never been to one before. First of all, just a lot of people who are becoming voters for the first time, but also a lot of people [00:06:30] who are becoming engaged for the first time because, not because they liked mayor Pete or not because they like Klobuchar from neighboring Minnesota, but because they just can't stand Trump.
Michael Gartner: I mean, these are all brand of Democrats and the one thing that holds them together is they don't like the president. So what happens at the caucuses is anybody's guess, but they're going to be a long and drawn out and [00:07:00] feisty and I suspect it'll be a long time before anybody even knows how it came out.
James Carville: Right. I guess my question is, we're probably going to have a long election night. Usually you don't, you have a pretty good idea kind of early.
Michael Gartner: That's right, you get a sense of it.
James Carville: People bunched up.
Michael Gartner: Yeah. And in setting it up this year, they messed it up anyway, and then they had to undo that, it's just a great big mess.
James Carville: They messed [00:07:30] it up, Michael, by having people, by saying people were going to vote in line then pulled back.
Michael Gartner: Yes. And then it was going to be like the constitution, certain people were only counted as three eighths of a person, and it was a nightmare and it was impossible to predict how it might've come out. Now, your friend Ann Selzer is going to have a poll before the caucuses and she's always right. So we'll get at least a sense of where it is a [00:08:00] few days before the caucus, but I think there's going to be a big, big massive confusion.
James Carville: So in your resume, the most impressive journalistic resumes I've ever heard from NBC News and Wall Street Journal.
Michael Gartner: Basically if you look at it, you see that I can't hold a job.
Al Hunt: James, he's right. You're right, he can't keep a job.
James Carville: There's a lot of criticism, observation, whatever about the press and how to cover in the campaign. What do [00:08:30] you think of the press coverage so far in this campaign? And what do you think, and do you have any ideas of how it can be better?
Michael Gartner: Well, I think that the print coverage has really been good. I think it's been thorough. I think it's been fair, and I think it's been informative. The television, and I knew nothing about television when I went to work there and I know nothing about [00:09:00] it today after having worked there. But the massive confusion between facts and opinions, you watch NBC or MSNBC and you see these standard NBC people on there who are supposed to not have opinions on the air. And then you go over to Fox and it's the same thing. So how do you know, these days there's nobody separating [00:09:30] fact from opinion or fact from fiction in-
James Carville: If I could weigh in here, just a second, Michael. If you got to tell them and say you got Fox and CNN and MSNBC and Bloomberg, whatever, what American news network. They have to fill up all of these hours of programming. And so the quality and the knowledge of the people is going to vastly differ, where [00:10:00] if you're at a journal at a time, at a post or even a AP, you got trained reporters, at least reporters that you hope are trained and have some skill. So what you're going to get in print is going to be an authentic, a much more consistent and knowledgeable project. You might give something hugely insightful on television and you'll get 10 things that people had that entire experience in politics as they voted in the last election, they try to be provocative.
Michael Gartner: I think one of the problems [00:10:30] is, I was in television just as satellites were coming in and the internet was coming big and everything, and all of a sudden the role of the editor in newspapers and the news director in television disappeared in the rush to get out, in the rush to be first. So there was no gatekeeper who could sit back and ponder and say, well, let's just check this out a little bit, let's go into this a little bit. So now, somebody asked me, run to journalism school said to me the other day, "What should we do about journalism school?" And I said, "Quit teaching [00:11:00] people how to be journalists, but teach ordinary people how to interpret journalism."
James Carville: Oh, pretty good. Okay.
Al Hunt: James, one of our dear friends was the late Tim Russert, who I think is still considered one of the great journalists in the history of Washington. Michael, quickly tell us, you had to persuade him to go on television, didn't you?
Michael Gartner: He didn't want to go on. He thought I was trying to kill his career. The problem was he was the Washington Bureau chief, and he'd call into the morning news call and it'd be really, really interesting. And then the news show, none [00:11:30] of that would be on, and I called him up, I say, "Tim, the morning news call is not supposed to be more interesting than the show. It's supposed to be the other way." And well, so-and-so couldn't get this story. And so I said, "Why don't you go on?" No, no, I'm not going to go on. And so we argued and argued and argued, we argued for six months. And finally he says, "Well, damn it." He says, "I'm ugly." And I said, "Well, we're not arguing that."
Michael Gartner: And so finally he agreed to do it and I had a whole bunch of T-shirts made up with his picture on the front [00:12:00] says, "Tim Russert, not just another pretty face." And he was a huge success. He was an enormous success and he was enormous success because he believed in facts and he knew how to answer questions. And he wasn't an ankle biter like some of those guys, and he didn't think he was the secretary of state like some others. He was just trying to elicit information and he was really, really good at it. And he would put the words up on the screen to double.
Michael Gartner: John chancellor once told me, I said to him, "How can I learn more [00:12:30] from your 90 seconds of commentary than I do sometimes from the other 25 minutes of the show?" And he said, "No pictures." And I said, "What do you mean?" He said, "I don't think people can take in information thoroughly through two senses simultaneously. So I don't have any background when I'm doing my commentary." Well, it was the same with Russert on Meet the Press and he went one step further and that he'd put the words up on the screen, just to drive it home.
Michael Gartner: And he was just so good. And he also had what my father used to call an [00:13:00] affidavit face. He would just look at him and believe it. He just looked believable and he was believable. And he was an equal opportunity fair guy. He didn't take a position. And if he asked a question twice and the person ducked it, he figured that the viewer was smart enough to see that the person was ducking it and he'd go onto the next subject. He knew he had just an hour. He was great, he was fantastic.
Al Hunt: [00:13:30] I think we agree with that, James, right?
James Carville: Yeah, I think I kind of do. Yeah, I do. I was, one of my best friends on the show all the time and it was, I never will forget he died today, I moved to New Orleans. So you never forget, but at any-
Michael Gartner: I don't think there's a worthy successor anywhere in television today.
Al Hunt: Yeah.
Michael Gartner: Al, don't take it personally.
James Carville: So the caucuses, let's talk [00:14:00] about that a little bit, because I don't think most people really understand that. And we didn't run in Iowa in 92, so I'm much more knowledgeable, because not long ago happened in New Hampshire and Iowa. Just walk through roughly what is going to happen that I think it's a Monday night tip of caucuses.
Michael Gartner: You're going to go in, you're going to go to your assigned place and first of all you have to prove you're a Democrat.
James Carville: Now what is the assigned place? It's like a gym.
Michael Gartner: Could be a gym, could be, yeah, it could be a [00:14:30] gym, could be a church, could be-
James Carville: VFW hall.
Michael Gartner: It could be a VFW hall, it could be anywhere. But they're looking for bigger spots because they expect so many. So then you go in and you listen to a representative of a candidate talk about why that person's candidate is good. And then ultimately, I mean, you don't just go in and vote, it's an evening. And then you declare who [00:15:00] you're for and you go stand in the corner for that person. If there's not enough people there, then your candidate is not viable in that caucus. I think you have to have 15% or something.
Michael Gartner: And so then you're out that caucus. So then others come over and they try to convince you to come and join them. So like if I went and I stood up for Cory Booker, for instance, who I happen to believe is a fantastic candidate, but he's at 2%, he's not [00:15:30] going to be viable very many places. So if I stand up for him and he's not viable, then I have my choices. Who are the viable ones there? Well, it'll be won, it'll be standards. It'll be mayor Pete, and it'll be Biden. So then they're going to try and lower the Booker people over there, or the others who weren't viable. And so then you go over and then ultimately noses are counted. And [00:16:00] that's how they figure out who wins the caucuses.
James Carville: I mean, just people have an idea of what an election is. I'm just fascinated by, the whole thing [crosstalk 00:16:13] fascinating.
Michael Gartner: It's unique and it's a mess. And Jimmy Carter figured it out, and Johnny Apple figured it out in 19, what was that, 74, when Carter ran and he spent the year out here and it vaulted him. And John Apple of the New York times [00:16:30] was covering every jot and tittle of it. And then so everyone said, well, it worked for Carter, and now everyone's going to think it's going to work for him. But it's terribly unfair to like a minority candidate, and I mean a racial minority candidate because Iowa is a white state. And so I suspect of South Carolina were first in the nation. Harris would still be in it and Booker would be in it big time.
James Carville: What about Barack [00:17:00] Obama [crosstalk 00:17:03].
Michael Gartner: But Obama, Obama was also almost a Messiah to young people out here then, and that's totally different.
James Carville: I disagree. Kamala Harris didn't have anything to say. I think if she'd had something to say people in Iowa would have listened to her.
Michael Gartner: Well, maybe. She was out here a lot and a lot of people were talking, but-
James Carville: Right.
Al Hunt: Let me ask you this, Michael. There are though, I mean, [00:17:30] you touched on it. There are many critics of the Iowa caucus. They say it's disproportionately influential. It's not representative of the democratic party. There aren't very many people of color, not much diversity. Defend the Iowa caucuses.
Michael Gartner: Well, from one standpoint, I can defend it as a great economic engine for the state of Iowa, but that's probably not what you're talking about. I would defend it because on this ground is that it has been going on for so long now that the people out here take [00:18:00] politics very, very seriously, and they become very informed about the issues, they ask intelligent questions. And it's a good way to test the knowledge, ability and stay in power of a candidate. All that being said, it's biased, as I said, against minority candidates, and it always will be. But [00:18:30] at this point, I think the average Iowan views himself as a walk on in a movie or something about it, that they take it seriously, they educate themselves and they try to elicit information that shows the fiber of a candidate, the staying power of a candidate and to a little bit degree, although this no longer is the case, the money [00:19:00] raising ability. Used to be that you raised the money here, but now you don't.
James Carville: So this is my view in New Hampshire, Iowa, I've obviously been up to Iowa a number of time during the caucus. These are chamber of commerce things. I mean, this adds a significant number to the GDP of Iowa, New Hampshire.
Michael Gartner: Oh yeah.
James Carville: But you name it. This is like getting a bowl game or better.
Michael Gartner: Yeah, I don't think anyone would argue with that.
James Carville: Why [00:19:30] are the economic interests of Iowa and New Hampshire, New Hampshire, that if somebody had tried to have a primary before them, they'd have a primary the day after the election.
Al Hunt: Yeah, that's right.
James Carville: And in Iowa has grabbed hold to this sugar tit. All right, where they're the first caucus state. Now, is it a fair criticism of democracy to say that these are economic events that these states put out and God damn jealousy so to have an outside influence [00:20:00] in the political process in the United States?
Michael Gartner: Well, I think that's cutting it to finally that, sure, it's got an economic impact because all you guys come out here and rent cars and eat steaks at 801 steak house and stuff like that. But that doesn't take away from the democratic aspect of it. There's, democracy [00:20:30] and capitalism aren't opposites.
James Carville: I made money in politics, I don't have anything against someone making money in politics. I'm saying the whole thing is an economic boom that gives an outsize influence. And I don't think there's anything you can do about it because the Iowa people would go nuts and I don't blame them [inaudible 00:20:56]. There's probably not anything [00:21:00] better for The Des Moines Register now the caucus.
Michael Gartner: Yeah. The University of Iowa football team, it would be. But yeah, you're right.
James Carville: It has huge and maybe even more in New Hampshire.
Michael Gartner: Yeah. I'm not disagreeing with anything you're saying, but I'm saying that that's just a piece of it. And no matter where the first caucus is or the first primary is, given the way the press is today, traveling in these massive numbers, it's going [00:21:30] to have a huge economic impact, whether it's in South Carolina or whether it's in Nevada or whether it's in North Dakota. But the economic impact is the side effects.
James Carville: It's a side effect, but I think it's the reason that they fight so hard to keep it.
Al Hunt: Oh yeah. Well, I mean it's not only the economic effect, but also if you're an Iowa politician, you find somebody with ethanol is much more popular right before a caucus than it is afterwards.
Michael Gartner: That's right.
James Carville: [00:22:00] I admire their economic creativity and the same thing in New Hampshire. They have a law in New Hampshire. You cannot, anybody set the primary before that, they automatically kicked ass back. I'm just saying it'd be like having the Superbowl every year.
Michael Gartner: Well, that would be okay.
James Carville: It is.
Al Hunt: Michael, let me ask you this, before we go, you've been great with your time. Do you have, if you had to go out, is there any sense you have that boy, [00:22:30] if I were watching someone in particular these next two weeks, here's who I'd be watching.
Michael Gartner: Klobuchar.
Al Hunt: You think she's a real dark horse?
Michael Gartner: Well, a little bit biased on that because she's from a neighboring state, so she gets kind of a half of a pass down here, being from Minnesota. But if there's anybody who can kind of bridge the gap between the left of the democratic party and the so-called right of the democratic party, whose name isn't Biden, [00:23:00] it would probably be Klobuchar. And she's getting better and better as a speaker. She's quick and she's ... Hillary Clinton was a crummy candidate out here, she didn't connect. And Klobuchar connects and she's rising up in the polls. She isn't in double digits as you mentioned, but she's at 7% or 8% now, in the state. [00:23:30] As I said at the beginning, this isn't a deal where somebody is going to come out and march right to the convention. This is still going to be a fight.
James Carville: All right. There was a story in New York Times and it was talking about, and this is ... I love just how earnest people are in Iowa. And Warren trying to frankly dig herself out as Medicare for all. And so what they're doing is they were having meetings and people, actual citizens were answering questions [00:24:00] that people have. I mean, it's that granular and that involved. And I was just kind of impressed about what self-starters these Warren supporters are, that they see that there is a problem and they're inviting people in their homes and they can explain what it is. It just, you don't see that kind of earnestness in presidential politics very often.
Michael Gartner: Well, like I said, everybody takes their role seriously out here and they want to be educated and the Warren thing is a perfect example. I [00:24:30] think most people think that she overplayed her hand on that and that isn't an issue that is going to play very well.
James Carville: People, the great thing is her actual supporters.
Michael Gartner: That's right.
James Carville: Supporters say, hey, we're going to do something about this. We're going to start having people come in and explain, boom, boom, boom, that, it's a shorter war on high command. It hasn't slept very well in the last six weeks. But the other people are kind of moving in, trying to help [00:25:00] out. I thought it was a touching story.
Michael Gartner: Well, it's the line from the music man. We can stand touching noses for a year and at that time never see eye to eye. But we'll give you our shirt and a back to go with it if your crop should happen to die, that's the Iowa.
James Carville: Boy, that's Iowa. Listen Michael, this has been terrific. And anyone who's listening, the caucuses are three and a half weeks away, but about three and a half months away, the Pacific Coast League [00:25:30] starts right with the Iowa Cubs. I think you also had what? The new Orleans Baby Cakes.
Michael Gartner: No, not anymore, they moved to Wichita.
James Carville: Could you still have the El Paso Chihuahuas?
Michael Gartner: Yeah, we have the Chihuahuas, and opening day El is, April the ninth against Nashville at 6:38 PM and good seats are still available.
James Carville: Well, I want tell anyone who's driving through Iowa from April through August, I want you to stop by Principal [00:26:00] Park, one of the great parks in America. And if you do that, mayor Gartner will buy you a hotdog. Michael, thank you very much-
Al Hunt: Thank you to Michael. It was a real treat and honor.
Michael Gartner: Thank you very much guys, it was nice talking to you.
Al Hunt: James, there's no way we can do the show this week without talking about Iran.
James Carville: Yeah, [inaudible 00:26:25].
Al Hunt: The targeted killing of general Soleimani was so blatantly political. [00:26:30] It was initially pitched as to stop an imminent threat, and they can't name one, but I can, I think there was an imminent threat and it was the impeachment of Donald Trump. And my old colleague Dana Milbank, I think put it best, and he said this wasn't wag the dog, this was wag the hippopotamus. But James, it may work for him.
James Carville: Well, first of all, I don't know, I think it's more about Bibi Netanyahu's political career as much as Donald Trump's. [00:27:00] I think that the Israelis conned him into doing this. And so Netanyahu gets to call an election in the middle of a security crisis and he hangs on, and I think this is more about Bibi Netanyahu's freedom than Donald Trump's [inaudible 00:27:17].
James Carville: And get away with it. What is getting away with it? I mean, right now the Iranians say, we took that guy out, they fired some shots our base, let's just all go back home. It don't work like that. Why does [00:27:30] anybody believe them or believe anybody what they say? I mean, everybody lies in a war to win a campaign. But this is ridiculous to just deem this thing as a volley that goes back and forth, no harm, no foul. We took out their guy, they shot something at us and we all go on about our happy way, and I see that. I mean maybe that's the case, but there's about a 2% chance that's the case. [00:28:00] I mean, and you got a lot of kerosene out there and you've got a lot of people playing with matches. In this, I don't think we've dodged anything yet, I really don't.
Al Hunt: Well, I think you're probably right. And I think, and I say, it may work for him, that's a short term analysis. They have impeachment a little bit off the front pages, it's a diversion. He's the tough guy and all that. But I would just make two points. I don't think anyone could seriously argue [00:28:30] that he thought through what day two would be like, or day 22 or day 47. And if we think Iraq was tough, it was child's play compared to Iran. So wherever this leads-
James Carville: This is going to be instructive for one thing, they really struck it for a lot. Any time in the past that you've had a foreign policy event of this magnitude, it has affected [00:29:00] the presidential approval. I mean, I've seen it where you go on a foreign trip and you might go up two points, three points, all right. Something like this, I mean, Bush went up to like 91, old man Bush. I don't see any, I don't think this is changing anybody's mind about anything. I mean, it looks like to me that the opinions of Trump are totally fixed. [00:29:30] I don't think his people, of course he didn't think about it. And of course they didn't tell any ally, they didn't tell anybody in the state department-
Al Hunt: Anyone in Congress.
James Carville: Anyone in Congress, not even the Gang of Eight. [crosstalk 00:29:44]. I mean, this is unbelievable. And the effects of this are not over at all. And it's just amazing [00:30:00] that this guy going to, I'm serious, he could get us all killed. He has no idea what he's doing, none. And we're going to start seeing the backstories. You just wait, you watch all the stories that's going to come out on this. This is one thing I know, they have lied about everything the entire way and the idea that there was an imminent threat, of course they [00:30:30] were lying about it. There's nothing, they're incapable of telling the truth.
Al Hunt: Yeah. Well, I think you're right. I also think that, I don't know what would have happened when there were one or two adults they had in the room. Like Madison might've had the same outcome because he's who he is. But the one thing we know now is there really aren't any adults in the room.
James Carville: Madison would not allow military options to get to Trump's desk. If Madison was secretary of defense, he would have never seen this option. This guy Esper [00:31:00] is a ... he don't know what he's doing either. He's a defense contractor.
Al Hunt: Yeah, I know, I think you're right. Although I go back to your earlier point, it may have been [Bibi 00:31:11] that said, hey, you have the option-
James Carville: Bibi did this. And the guy that's the head of the Mossad that's Pompeo big friend, they're all behind this.
Al Hunt: Yeah.
James Carville: And it's all about Bibi's political future. And Trump's so stupid and gullible, I mean, they [00:31:30] could get him to go along with anything, but he had no.
Al Hunt: Well, I just-
James Carville: And Sheldon Adelson calls him and tells him to do it.
Al Hunt: I don't think we have seen the end of the Iranian response and [crosstalk 00:31:43]. And we don't know what this guy, this-
James Carville: [crosstalk 00:31:48] top of the first ending of the story. We remotely find out how this happened.
Al Hunt: Right. And we got a-
James Carville: And we don't know.
Al Hunt: We got an unhinged picture and no bullpen.
James Carville: [00:32:00] Correct.
Al Hunt: Let's just hope, let me turn to impeachment before we go to the big story of the week, which is football. But McConnell has the votes to proceed without witnesses. I guess the Susan Collins's and Cory Gardner's of the world caved. Does it matter? And there's no reason, no pressure on Nancy Pelosi to send that over at their convenience.
James Carville: It's always, they could lose six Republicans. [00:32:30] They know they're not going to lose any. Unless the Democrats are able to break something on a fair trial. And there's some piece of evidence and maybe they could switch public opinion, but right now we're all out there looking for a good Republican. Whoever the good Republican is, he's somebody we don't have to fake getting any votes from Republican voters, I can tell you that.
James Carville: Susan Collins [00:33:00] placed the same trick on everybody all the time. I'm not surprised at all by any of this. But the democrats are able to ... I'd be curious to see what John Bolton, if this is what this is about, I have no idea. He might be selling books, but he maybe has something to say. I mean, here's the eyewitness to what happened.
Al Hunt: He is. If I were one of those democratic senators, I would worry it might be a trap because he also is [00:33:30] an incredibly ambitious conservative. He doesn't want to be someone who [inaudible 00:33:34] Donald Trump. I mean, he wouldn't do it anyway.
James Carville: Yeah, I've worried too. I don't know. I suspect they call him, they're going to know. I mean, he got people to talk to. The more I read and I don't know, I don't run in John Bolton circles or anything like that, but the more I read the more I'm convinced he might have something to say. I don't know that, but they talked to ... somebody talks to the guy who talks to [00:34:00] the guy.
Al Hunt: I also want to hear Mr. Mulvaney under oath tell what happened. Even though those OMB guys weren't in the room, you call them up, they can document exactly why and when this thing, why this lead [crosstalk 00:34:17].
James Carville: I have no, there's no amount, we know exactly what happened.
Al Hunt: We do.
James Carville: We know exactly. Literally the gun is smoking, she's dead [00:34:30] on the floor. The guy is holding the pistol. The ballistic match, the prints match. The kid said, "Daddy shot mama." That's how tight this case is. So then maybe you can find out he got the life insurance or something to add to it, but they had no doubt at what happened. There's no ... I don't think there's hardly a fact that's even in dispute here. Am I wrong?
Al Hunt: [00:35:00] No, I agree, and I also think the outcome is indisputable because they are scared stiff of that.
James Carville: And you have all-
Al Hunt: He owns the Republican party now. He just owns the Republican party. And even, I mean, I was out in Colorado, Cory Gardner is just, he may be a dead man walking but he also, I mean, he is in a terrible political position. If he sticks with Trump, he's going to alienate those independent voters who decide elections in Colorado. If he goes [00:35:30] against Trump, the base turns on him. And that's the dilemma they're facing. You know what they're going to do? They're all going to stick with Trump.
James Carville: Well, you know what, it's going to happen. There's going to be in, it's going to explode. And what did you know and when did you know it? The question that these Republican congress and senators are going to have to ask is how long did you know he was insane and you kept on letting it go on. They know he's insane. [00:36:00] They know he's mad. They know he's gotten rid of everybody.
James Carville: I mean, they may be Republicans and they may fight like hell for that political survival and for the survival of their donors, but they know he's crazy and they talk to each other. And they go home and they talk to their wives and talk to their friends. And the question they all have to ask three years from now is, when did you notice? And they're [00:36:30] not going to look good, they're not going to look good at all.
Al Hunt: The stories have already come out about what goes on in this administration are chilling and they are just going to pale next to what we're going to find out in the next year in the years ahead. I mean, the stuff that is going on, the cover up [crosstalk 00:36:49].
James Carville: History delay us and a lot of people that are going to look just awful, just awful in history.
Al Hunt: [00:37:00] Yeah.
James Carville: And I think a lot of these people know it, they just don't know what to do.
Al Hunt: Yeah, they're scared. James, let me ask you something. What are you doing next Monday night, you going to the movies?
James Carville: A couple of good movies.
Al Hunt: You could see The Irishman, you could see Little Women.
James Carville: I would go see 1917 tomorrow during the day. I like to go to the movie during the day. Yeah, I think I'll be out at the dome. It's hard to explain-
Al Hunt: Tell people what the dome is just for those few who may not know.
James Carville: Monday night is, [00:37:30] to those of you who are so into politics that you don't look anything else? Monday night is the national championship game in college football where Clemson undefeated, two years in a row beat Alabama last year, 44-16 rolls into New Orleans and they play LSU who is number one, 13 and O, they blew Oklahoma out.
Al Hunt: Earlier beat Texas.
James Carville: [crosstalk 00:37:59]. [00:38:00] And it is promising to be the most anticipated college football game probably of this century. I mean maybe the USC Texas game in 05, I don't know.
Al Hunt: I think this one's bigger.
James Carville: This is bigger, because everybody ... I mean, and the [Joe Barra 00:38:16] thing has just exploded. Clemson is just really good. So there's three things we know, The Tigers are going to win. Somebody wearing purple is going to win and somebody who plays in Death Valley is going to win. [00:38:30] If LSU wins this game in a six point favor, they might go down as the most explosive, interesting football team in the history of college football.
Al Hunt: And you feel unconfident right now.
James Carville: I don't allow myself to feel, it's too big to contemplate. All right, I just have to calm down. I have a Sunday night, but I'll go on to the fairgrounds, which is the race track and of course all my friends are [inaudible 00:38:58]. And then I'm hosting a big party [00:39:00] at the Crescent City Steak House, which is one of the most culturally significant restaurants in New Orleans. It has been there since 1934 and people don't realize it, but New Orleans is one of the great steaks it is in United States.
James Carville: Both Ruth's Chris and Del Frisco's started New Orleans. And the Crescent City was before all of them, and they were the first people to cook these steaks and double broilers and of course they douse them in butter, big secret there. And it's just, [00:39:30] the same tile has been there since 1934, the same everything. And instead we're going to have ... I don't know, 28 Carville's and probably 30 KDs and God knows how many-
Al Hunt: Well, the ones [crosstalk 00:39:44] a couple of weeks ago is that your wife Mary Madeline has become just about as big a Tiger fan as you.
James Carville: She's sort of more gotten into it now, she was from Illinois. And college football, if you're not from the South, [00:40:00] Ohio, Michigan or something like that. But if you grew up in Chicago, college football is pretty more The Bears and she came down here and The Saints. But now she's gotten into LSU football culture, which my family is. I mean, like my brother-in-laws and sisters and I don't know how many Carville's, I think they're like 23 of us that are LSU grads. And we would have never gone [inaudible 00:40:24] postmaster had eight kids. We used to go to college for free.
Al Hunt: So you've got [00:40:30] another generation who's there right now who-
James Carville: Oh, we've got a gazillion of them.
Al Hunt: Right, your daughter's-
James Carville: My daughter's a senior. And they come in with all of these girls and boys and they like convoy to every game. I mean it's really ... we have a child that's senior year. You have a football team like this. Can you imagine what it's like for these children who go to college here and to experience this. And they literally go to all the games and [00:41:00] they convoy and I mean-
Al Hunt: But there's going to be none, there's going to be this one, be a shorter, the shortest commute maybe, but there'll be none bigger and any of you out there, Monday Night, do not call, do not email, do not-
James Carville: [crosstalk 00:41:16]. My cell phone, it could be anywhere around me. I love these kids so much. I mean, you add to it [inaudible 00:41:25] who has just turned out to be one of the most [00:41:30] innovative distinct college football coach, he's got ... I mean, just the whole thing, Barra story, all of these kids in the state [inaudible 00:41:43] stories and all these old players coming back. I mean, if we win this football game, you're going to see, and I know [inaudible 00:41:51] wins a national championship thereby is on the field and they're hugging each other and high five and stuff. You're going to see suck [inaudible 00:41:59] win this game. You're going [00:42:00] to see something deeper than that.
Al Hunt: If you don't win, I'm going to wait a couple of days. But if you win, I would predict you're going to win, I'm going to call you early Tuesday morning.
James Carville: If we lose, you don't have to call me, I'll be disappointed. I love these kids, I don't get, they could get beat [inaudible 00:42:14] and nothing, they're like my own children. I love them unconditionally. I think they're such a great bunch.
Al Hunt: All right. Listen, this has been a great show. We're off to a great start in 2020 and we'll be back again next week. James Carville, thank you. This is Al hunt saying [00:42:30] goodbye for 2020 Politics War Room.
James Carville: Thank you.
Al Hunt: Go Tigers.
James Carville: Go Tigers.