Charlie Cook Handicaps the Presidential Race Post-Convention
Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report handicaps the Presidential race coming out of the conventions as Biden's lead stays consistent with at least a 5% lead in all the states Hillary lost in 2016. James brings up a couple surprise Governorships that look to flip in Missouri and Alaska, and also lauds Shreveport mayor Adrian Perkins as a rising star set to take a US Senate seat. UNC Professor Rick Luettich shares his expertise on hurricanes heading into storm season as James examines how the media erroneously covers the wrong elements of what makes a storm dangerous. James and Al react to the conclusion of the Republican National Convention at the White House as a truly bizarre experience that was more about Trump's ego than energizing the party heading down the stretch toward the election.
Show Notes:
00:00 - Nice White Parents live read NYT/Serial Productions
01:15 - Charlie Cook interview begins / Hurricane heading for Shreveport
03:25 - Presidential race isn't currently competitive, Biden's ahead
05:35 - protests aren't slowing Biden down politically
08:10 - Biden is ahead everywhere, electoral college intact
10:20 - 2020 doesn't mirror 2016 at all
13:25 - future of the Republican party?
17:45 - James on Alaska and Missouri Governorship
23:00 - James says winning is everything
25:40 - State Legislature update
27:40 - Shreveport Mayor Adrian Perkins candidate for US Senate
29:05 - UNC Prof Rick Luettich on Hurricanes
35:20 - Storm surge prediction accuracy
38:20 - Storm surges aren't covered as much as wind and rain by the press
39:55 - What scares a hurricane expert?
41:30 - What's this hurricane season look like?
44:30 - COVID19 + Hurricane = really bad problem
48:15 - Miami is vulnerable with few escape routes
52:30 - What a bizarre Trump convention!?
Transcript:
Al Hunt: [00:00:00] In the podcast. Nice white parents, reporter Hannah Joffey walk. You may know her from this American life started looking into this one school in her neighborhood. After her kids became school age in New York city, Hannah examines his public middle school traditionally filled with black and Brown students.
After a number of white families arrived. And then not satisfied. She fully understood what she was seeing. She went all the way back to the family of the school in the 1960s. And then up to the present day. Again, eventually Hannah realized she could put a name to what was getting in the way of making the school better.
All these years, white parents. Nice white parents is a fascinating, listen. That's deeply relevant today. It's made by serial productions, a New York times company. Same people who made the hit podcast, serial and S town. All episodes are now available wherever you do. Get your podcasts.
Hello and welcome to another special edition of 2020 politics war room with James Carville and I'm Al hunt. We are proud partners with the sign Institute at American university in Washington. This is the week after, uh, both. This is the week that Republican convention ended. We've now had both conventions and he needed, we have a special guest to talk about that.
And we also want to talk about this potentially devastating storm, Laura, which ended up not quite as bad, but may just be a harbinger of things to come. I want to thank everyone again and subscribe to the show on Apple podcast at your Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. This is why you subscribed.
So today's episode shows up in your inbox, even though you didn't expect, Hey James, our guests on the most recent podcast today is the guests we had on our first
Charlie Cook: [00:01:54] podcast, the incomparable Charles Cook the founder of the cook
Al Hunt: [00:01:58] political report,
Charlie Cook: [00:02:00] which is
Al Hunt: [00:02:00] the well for anyone who cares about American politics and elections.
And a member of the Louisiana
Charlie Cook: [00:02:07] political hall of fame.
Al Hunt: [00:02:09] Uh, he's talking to his from his modest summer outfit in Maine, but he is the and joy of Shreveport and Shirley, I gather Shreveport largely escaped, uh, this terrible storm.
Charlie Cook: [00:02:22] Yes, Shreveport's inland. Yeah, enough that it usually just gets a lot of rain.
Uh, and in fact, uh, uh, could train a went East. And so it didn't feel Katrina all, but James, what was the name, name of the other hurricane that came right after Katrina.
James Carville: [00:02:40] Rita
Charlie Cook: [00:02:41] Rita Rita actually did more damage. Uh, that was actually one of the few times when, uh, a hurricane actually hurt, uh, my hometown, which, you know, in the Northwest corner of the state and really more part of Texas than, than Louisiana is James Woodside.
But, well, I I'm, I'm, I'm so glad that you guys are giving me a second chance since I was bad the first time. And didn't kill your.
Al Hunt: [00:03:08] We peaked with you, but now we're going to try to peak again, surely the speeches, the infomercials
Charlie Cook: [00:03:13] Fox
Al Hunt: [00:03:14] versus MSC, NBC food all over now. We're going into the main event. How does this presidential race Stan heading into September and October?
Charlie Cook: [00:03:24] You know, to me, four or five months ago, this was a competitive race that, uh, Joe Biden was consistently, you know, four or five, six points ahead, uh, and had been ahead, you know, ever since he got in, in April of last year, but that, that Trump president Trump was still in the sort of the outer reaches of, of striking distance, but that, uh, but it was an up.
He'll fight for the president. I think now it's right now, it's not a competitive race. Something would have to change for this to be a competitive race because it's looking basically nine, 10, uh, nine, 10, 11 points, uh, in, in the, the, you know, the live, uh, live telephone interview. Paul's, uh, maybe, uh, a point or two less in, in most robo and an online polling.
Um, I don't think this is competitive right now. And I think basically what happened was, was two things. Number one, I don't think you could have the greatest crisis facing our country in three quarters of a century and screw it up this close to an election. And have a reasonable expectation of, of winning.
And then the second is that the strongest argument the president had was the economy. And, you know, I think going into a recession, normally you would expect a, a deep recession would, would just kill off any incumbents, chances of, of getting reelected. Uh, but I don't think he's facing a headwind at all because the economy, but he lost the little tailwind that he had.
So between, uh, basically 60% of America thinking that he mishandled this enormous crisis, uh, and losing the, the, the best argument he had. Um, I don't think this is competitive right now. Surely, I
Al Hunt: [00:05:22] think I agree with you. I've gotten three emails this morning though, from Democrats saying, boy, I'm now more worried.
And I thought, well, was it the Trump speech? It wasn't so much that all the notes, but it's, it's Wisconsin. It's Kenosha. It's the violence. Now these may just be bed wetters who remember 2016, you know, can you see this thing? If it flares up? You know, even worse than it is now by that. I mean, riots, disturbances be peaceful protests that turn into violence, causing real problems with the Democrats.
Charlie Cook: [00:05:54] I don't, I mean, maybe I'm out of it. I don't know.
Al Hunt: [00:05:57] I never out of a Charles
Charlie Cook: [00:05:59] I don't, I don't, I don't see it. You know, though, I think that. One problem in, in, in, in our world is that so many people are so glued to cable news, uh, and whether they're on the Fox side or, you know, or on the CNN MSNBC side. Uh, but that, that.
To me, very normal, normal people don't watch any of it. That was, that's not how they get this on how they get news. And, you know, I think the, I think the best, uh, you know, but there's, and they're not reading the Washington post and the New York times a wall street journal, the economist, uh, they're not watching the PBS news hour.
Um, for the most part, uh, uh, with all due respect to, to, to, to your bride, you know, this more elegancy type of argument, but to me, Just, you know, whether it's a CBS evening news or NBC nightly or ABC world news tonight, that's what 30 million people a week watch. And I kind of want to see, I want the information that elites get from more elite types of media.
But I also want to see what the, what the biggest chunk of people are seeing. And that's, that's the, in the, in the, in the, the 30 minute broadcast news every evening. And, um, it'll be interesting to see how much that is compared to the coronavirus, but I don't think, um, I don't think this is going to affect things a lot, but, you know, Hey, we've all been wrong.
Al Hunt: [00:07:36] Well, you're, you're, you're rarely wrong. I'll stick with your track record. Final Ben winter question. And again, I agree with you, but the bed wetter say, Oh man, but how about the electoral
Charlie Cook: [00:07:46] college? Uh, I think it was
Al Hunt: [00:07:47] your colleague. Dave Wasserman has predicted that Biden could wind by as many as five points and
Charlie Cook: [00:07:52] still lose the electric cars.
That seems a bit of a reach
Al Hunt: [00:07:55] to me. But as you look at those States, are they falling in line too with a, a sizable
Charlie Cook: [00:08:00] advantage? Yeah, I mean, I use, I use two to three points with the differential was 2.1 points. I'll be, uh, uh, four, four. That was Hillary Clinton slate. I don't, um, um, I mean right now, what you got is, is, is Joe Biden is ahead by five points or more in every single one of the 20 States that Hillary Clinton carried plus DC.
And he's five points ahead in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Florida. And that gets you, that gets you to what, 302 or something like that. I mean, and the national league now is basically double. What, whether you take the diff you know, the electoral college thing or this yes. Thing about shy Trump voters, add those together in this problem.
I think it's probably five points at that point, but, but we've got a lead that's double that. Uh, and I don't think the president got a bump out of last night or out of this week. Um, you know, we'll, we'll find out a few days, but.
James Carville: [00:09:12] Sure Brian waves last night with Mike Murphy. And a point we were making is that since I've been, but you've been involved in since the late seventies at been before that I have been in politics since then, too, in every poll that's ever conducted.
You asked a right or wrong track number. Good reason. That's basically that's checking your blood pressure. You. You
Dr. Rick Luettich: [00:09:38] can just share the level of whatever.
James Carville: [00:09:41] And we have a incumbent who's no very seldom plus a miles 40 to one at 42, sometimes three, sometimes as 41. But
Charlie Cook: [00:09:54] yeah,
James Carville: [00:09:55] I just think it's extremely difficult for an incumbent and an 80% wrong track country.
That's polling at 42 to do a whole lot better. I'm shy Trump voters or anything else? He's in a really tough when 80% of the country doesn't like where I was going.
Charlie Cook: [00:10:17] Yeah, I know. I think you're exactly right. And, and actually, uh, uh, some interesting numbers that, um, in the last 10 presidential elections in five of them, uh, five that the voters voted to keep the party in the white house.
To keep them there. And five, they basically evicted whichever party had the white house and in the five that were the incumbent party was able to hold onto the presidency. The average right direction was 42 and wrong track was 49, 42, 49. But in the five that, uh, where they, the presidency flipped. The average wrong track was 70.
The average right direction was 24. And as your set, as you said, right now, NBC wall street journal pullets 19 and 72. So, you know, like the old wall lost in space TV show with a robot saying danger will Robinson danger, danger, uh, that's a danger signal having the lowest average job approval of any elected president seeking reelection.
Um, Yeah, that that's a danger. I mean, all the sealer dangerous signals. So I don't, I just have a hard time seeing even, even with voting problems, even with the electoral college, even. Uh, you know, as best I could tell they're the people people have, uh, you know, Alan Greenspan used to talk about irrational exuberance.
I think right now there's an irrational degree of caution with people still having PTSD from 2016. When as best I can tell, they're only three things that are consistent between this election and 2016. And one is, uh, they're both us presidential elections. The second is Donald Trump's, Republican nominee, and third, the year both begins in two.
Other than that, there's no similar. There's nothing in common. The incumbent presidents, it's a referendum on them. It's not a choice election. Uh, and, and if it's a referendum, um, you know, I think we know how the president will fare.
James Carville: [00:12:33] It, you know, as I watched the convention, I got a lot of thoughts on it, but I would, I bet you anything, the Republican national dimension, 2020 used the word Republican far less than any previous Republican convention.
Very little about the Republican party in very much about Donald Trump and. The greatest questions. I'm just going to ask you your expertise is election prognostication of which you're the best in the world, but let's speculate if we're right in, Trump goes to the feet and not a particularly close to fee.
Well, what do you think is going to happen? I mean, you talk to Republicans, you know, 20 of them one day, what are you thinking of becoming a Republican party? You have a, just a guess an idea. Yeah.
Charlie Cook: [00:13:27] You know, for, for a while, that's the case. The question I'd been asking, particularly my Republican pollster friends is, Oh, I would phrase it five years after Donald Trump leaves Washington.
And regardless of whether the calendar starts in January of 21 or January of 25, What is the Republican party going to look like? And, uh, you know, our friend, Tom Davis, who used to chair the national Republican congressional committee, he's got a great line. He said the Republican party has gone from the, from country club to just country and, you know, a little harsh, but, but not entirely wrong that it's, it's completely they've repositioned themselves.
And is this going to continue or is this going to flip? And the only theory that I, I found I came up with this would be a year ago. Is it depends that that would be hindered upon who Democrats nominated. Yeah. In 2020 that you've got these ups, Gale college educated, suburban. More women than men that have been moving away from the Republican party over into independent and starting to move into the democratic party while simultaneously had these non-college whites.
But particularly those that are, are evangelical or conservative Catholics move in the opposite direction that, um, that. If, if Democrats nominated a Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, that big group of college educated suburban women might well do a U turn and start moving back either into independent or, or back into, back towards the Republican side.
But that if Democrats nominated someone that just didn't. Repel them, somebody that, that, that would, would, would welcome those people in open arms. That, um, uh, Democrats can go with that Republican because would you continue to be the party of Trump? Because I don't think he's going to go away quickly or quietly.
Um, you know, I think he's still, even if so many loses, I think he's still going to play that party and make it difficult for. For Republicans to try to fix their party. Do you know, do what that RNC autopsy recommended they do in 2013 about expand their base, reach out to young people, soften, soften some things.
Um, um, what they need to do is pretty obvious, but they're, I think they they've got a, they've got a real challenge in being able to do it.
Al Hunt: [00:16:03] Every convention I have been to Charlie, the party has honored, celebrated either from video or a speech, some of their articles, tonic leaders. Typically, if they have passed away, there was Reagan or Ike or Truman or Ted Kennedy.
Uh, in 2012, four people were not mentioned at this convention. George H w Bush, George W. Bush, John McCain and Mitt Romney. This is the Trump party, not the Republican party.
Charlie Cook: [00:16:29] Well, I mean, you're the godfather of the NBC wall street journal poll, um, you know, begun asking the question, you know, of Republicans, you consider yourself a supporter of the Republican party or a party of, of Donald Trump.
And it was about a, I think it's about an eight point margin for Trump rather than just I find with their party. Um, we've never seen anything like that before.
Al Hunt: [00:16:54] James, I'm sorry
James Carville: [00:16:55] I interrupted you. That's why I think these never Trump boots are, are valuable. And I do think that that it's not an overwhelming number, but there are some people who just kind of viewed themselves as Republicans, that if they get any kind of permission from other Republicans to vote, provide, and we could pick up, if you pick up 5% more Republicans, shit, that's a lot.
That's a whole, I think you can do a little better than that. So. I am like when I asked you this too racists that I have predicted that will over-perform and how big they went to some extent will be determined by how big wide margin is with two places. I think a open form for Democrats, Alaska Senate and Missouri governor.
I think that both of those, uh, I'm just looking at them and. You know, if it's a, the Biden wind spot five, probably be pretty tough at that point. At any time he goes anything above that, I'm not sure we can knock a wind Missouri just flat out, no matter what happens nationally. But if there are any kind of race that you see, maybe it's a Republican side or something where you see something that kind of position to do better than, than expected, because that always happens.
Even if it's a huge wave year. Some people, other people,
Charlie Cook: [00:18:17] the ones you pick. They're interesting because now I I'm always skiddish about Alaska because you know, everybody, everybody in this country believes that their state is unique is just different from all the others. And in the case of Alaska, it's really true.
And I think those of us in the lower 48 understand Alaska less than we understand, you know, their, their countries on the other side of the globe that we understand better. But having said that the, the two, the two races you point to strike me as ones that that are because you don't have strong dominating personalities on either side, that what you're talking about is basically a generic vote that people are gonna, you know, they're voting blue or they're voting red.
And that, uh, to the extent that, uh, it is, it differs from where things were four years ago. Um, that that would tell you, um, tell you where things are going. I know in basically nationwide, there is about a six point swing between 2016 and 2018. Where you look at a house, look at, look at what happened, 16 and move the, move it over to the left, six clicks.
And you got what happened in, in 2018. And I don't see any of that, that, uh, that, that it's going to be any, any different. So, you know, it's sort of what, what's the, what's the generic, like compared to 2016 and you know, the, the back, the, the previous midterm election, 2014, We had the lowest midterm election turnout since 1942, the lowest since 42.
And then we had 2016 surprise a lot, but the turnout was about 60% of the voting eligible. Uh, so it was in line with the three previous ones. Then in 2018, we had the largest midterm election turnout since night, 18, 14, 1914. Okay. Add, add before may Charlie. Yeah. Well, the thing is, it reminds me of that, that scene in the last scene.
I think it was in, in Torah, Torah, Torah. Where Admiral Yamamoto is up on the bridge of the aircraft carrier and the Japanese planes are coming back from the Pearl Harbor raid and, and, you know, they're all, all the, you know, they're doing whatever the equivalent, the time and the plate of the high fives.
Yeah. Excited that it was a successful mission. And the Yamamoto character says, I feel all we have done is awakened a sleeping giant and filled him with terrible result off. The 2016 election build the democratic side with a resolve that did not exist. That in 2016, there was an intensity behind Donald Trump and as bright and qualified as secretary Clinton.
Cause there was a hell of a lot of ambivalence in the democratic side, but I think election it 2016 changed that and, and, and the democratic party's hair is still on fire. Well, almost four years
James Carville: [00:21:27] later, I look, I could not agree with you more and I've been pounding the table on this. Remember, remember it's all about November.
I see it. In February of this year, when panic struck in Lily panic struck anyway, might nominate brother standards. I have a split party and one South Carolina happened. It just, everything fell into place. We go like, you know, suburban Housewives in Louden and Fairfax, Pell Joe Biden. I don't care. I mean, everything just changed.
In that most consequential, politically in a primary, maybe I've ever seen it was the South Carolina primary of 2020, because once James Klabin dropped the hammer and people saw that, then you had like Livingston County, Michigan changing, and you had all kinds of people just saying, Hey, should we go on?
But I thought it was. Powerful. And I completely agree that across the spectrum of the democratic party, that winning is not what counts about. It's literally almost everything
Charlie Cook: [00:22:38] we know we've talked about this before. Right? You had 40% of the democratic party that just wanted fundamental change. I mean, they wanted, whether it was Bernie or Elizabeth Warren, they that's what they want, but 60%, all they wanted was someone to win.
And, but they were so. So traumatized by 2016 that I think first they started looking for the perfect candidate and there aren't any perfect candidates, but the perfect became the enemy of the good. And so we found ourselves, uh, you know, the, the 60% that just wanted to win were split up between Biden and Clovis char and Buddha judge and Bloomberg.
And, and it wasn't until, as you said, they started looking into the abyss. That they said, well, screw it. Let's go with Biden. And they all knew Biden. They all liked him. That sort of thing. They had had questions about whether he could win, but at this point it's like, okay, the nonsense is all over. We've got to get behind him.
And that's exactly, that's what, that's what they have, what happened. And as it turned out, it's worked out, I think as well, we expected because if Biden has, you know, It is the, the biggest downside that Joe Biden has is going off script and saying things that getting really excited and just saying things that he didn't particularly mean, or didn't come out right.
And spending a lot of time in his basement and, and, and communicating with people in very. Very much controlled circumstances. That's been as bad as optimals you could possibly get. So I don't think Democrats could possibly. Feel have a situation any better than it is. And frankly, I don't think you could have, I don't think either party could have a more than a 10 point lead, I think is where this race is right now.
Uh, cause we're, we're just in an era of high floors and low ceilings for par for parties because of a hyper partisanship. So, um, I just think there's this irrational level of caution among. Pundits and irrational pessimism on the democratic side, that the data just doesn't support.
Al Hunt: [00:24:51] Totally. I agree. I would say, I think in a normal year against a normal opponent or income, a
Charlie Cook: [00:24:56] Joe Biden would probably not be a very good
Al Hunt: [00:24:58] candidate.
He may be the perfect candidate this year. You're not going to sell him his crazy Joe
Charlie Cook: [00:25:02] radical
Al Hunt: [00:25:03] Joe. Uh, and I just think, uh, With the basement and everything that,
Charlie Cook: [00:25:08] that I think you're under
Al Hunt: [00:25:09] a point you're making about underlying conditions is so right. One more topic before we let you get back to those main lobsters.
Cause James and I have talked about this. Maybe it's just a, a wave, a
Charlie Cook: [00:25:21] rising tide lifts,
Al Hunt: [00:25:22] all boats. One
Charlie Cook: [00:25:23] thing I'm talking with the Republicans are starting to pour a
Al Hunt: [00:25:26] lot more money into. Are those state legislative races, which in 2010, they
Charlie Cook: [00:25:32] brilliantly and I think somewhat diabolically
Al Hunt: [00:25:35] one. And it made a difference for a decade.
What did you have any sense of whether the Democrats, they got some good groups, the democratic redistrict in Michigan with killing ward and the DLCC, but are they going to be able to take control of some of those legislatures?
Charlie Cook: [00:25:49] Well, of course you're, you're, you're exactly right. I mean, I like to say that if there's never a good time, they have a bad election, but sometimes they're really bad times to have a bad election and to have a bad election badly for your party in a year, ending in zero.
Right with your district being happy in the next year. That's like the most horrible thing that could possibly happen. And that's exactly what, what Democrats had back in 2010. Um, I think the premier expert on state legislative elections in the country is Tim story at the national conference of state legislatures.
And he points out that there is a very, very, very strong relationship between. How a president is doing and, and state legislative gains or losses for that party. Right. And there is pretty strong linkage and, uh, and yeah, in the 2018 midterm election, I mean, Republicans had a tough, it was a tough year in terms of state legislative and gubernatorial races, but it wasn't as it wasn't proportionally as bad as they had had in the U S house.
And, um, but this, um, uh, these legislative races are incredibly important. There are a whole bunch there, bunch of chambers that are, I had a column on this a week or two ago that are, that are right on the edge, including the Texas house. So this, this, this election up and down the ballot is just so incredibly, incredibly important, but yeah, there's, there's a.
I think the 20 something chambers that are catered cheater in the edge, I mean, 80% of all the state legislative seats in the country or on the ballot this year. Um, so having a good year or having a bad year, you know? Yeah. As I said, a year and a zero is a really, it's a good time to have a good election and a bad time to have a battle action.
James Carville: [00:27:45] I want to return to your Shreveport roots. I think that the way of Shreveport whose democratic nominate for the United States Senate has the most compelling resume story of any United States, Senate candidate under 40 in the history of the United States. And, uh, I would point out that he grew up in Holly grow, which is a, you know, a really.
Charlie Cook: [00:28:12] Not so good neighborhood.
James Carville: [00:28:13] This neighborhood was the first African-American to be commanded a brigade at West point served three tours of duty combat zones, one LeBron stall. Was president of his class at Harvard law school and came back and did an incumbent when he was 36 years old, but two to one, two, when the mayor of Shreveport, I would defy anybody to put a resume like that in a young and a young Senate candidate anywhere.
Then you wish history.
Charlie Cook: [00:28:41] Well, and, and, um, I had, I met him a little over a year ago and I've talked with him on the phone and, uh, so impressive. But you left out his three most important qualifications that he attended. Arthur circle, elementary school, Yuri drive junior high school and captain Shreve high school, all of the three schools that I went,
James Carville: [00:29:05] no,
Al Hunt: [00:29:05] he's the second, most famous graduate of captain tree of high school.
Charlie Cook: [00:29:09] Yeah, well, we are both in the circle of honor. Uh, they came from high school and the reason that the circle is, is the, the, the high school is raw. It's a relatively new high school, so it's around high school. So the circle of honor. So, uh, that's what we share. Um, yeah. And the thing is that, uh, you know, he, Adrian is running against bill Cassidy, uh, who is.
Is not an incumbent who has a big, big, big negatives, but, you know, he doesn't have huge positives either. And, um, you know, it's uploaded, it's a federal race in Louisiana. It's by definition, it's up for Democrats, but it's a really interesting race. And James is right. This guy's resume is unbelievable.
James Carville: [00:29:58] You know, I have this, we have to get behind people like this.
And you know, Trump is only beating Biden and Louisiana by 50 to 43. If you look across, I've seen polling from Kansas. I seen polls, Alabama, South Carolina. I know there's not, I don't think in any of those States, I've seen Trump above 52. Yep. I'm sure. You'll see it. Alaska. I mean, he's, he's a head, but he's not, I don't know.
I guess I haven't seen Poland from Oklahoma, so I'd have to get, yeah.
Charlie Cook: [00:30:38] I'd want to say Idaho and Wyoming, but yeah,
James Carville: [00:30:42] but I can tell you in Alabama, you know, Louisiana, South Carolina, Kansas, Alaska, and I've met, I've seen some. Consistent and pretty high quality poet and yes, he's gonna win the state, but if not, you're not going to win it.
He's not going to go much North of 55 even now, Bama. I don't think
Charlie Cook: [00:31:08] they're going to be some Republican incumbents that we. Think or, or will probably win that won't and there are going to be some people that we would have expected to win easily are going to get the life scared out of them. Um, cause that's what happens in these big, big, big wave elections.
You know, both of you remember vividly 1980. I mean, I remember, uh, the first. Uh, uh, Birch by lost, uh, incumbent Birch by lost in Indiana at six 30 in the evening. The moment the polls closed and Democrats lost a Senate seat every half an hour for the next six hours. 12 net loss. See that when these things get nationalized and that usually happens more in midterms than in presidential years, but when, when, when you, when that big wave comes and it it's it's, it's, it's, uh, it's, it's like, yeah, totally unnatural.
What happens? And you just see big old things happen. And, uh, that's what I sense this year is going to be like, He's
Al Hunt: [00:32:14] he's, he's looking at you, Senator squiggly biscuit also known as Lindsey Graham. Uh, so while watch out,
Charlie Cook: [00:32:21] uh,
Al Hunt: [00:32:22] Charlie cook, I hope you'll come back sometime before November three. Cause you not only
Charlie Cook: [00:32:27] bring us good luck, but you,
Al Hunt: [00:32:28] but you elevate us.
So I want to, and I'm sure Lucy wants to get out and get
Charlie Cook: [00:32:33] some of those lobsters that are left right now. Well, thank you. It's always an honor. I'll do it whenever you guys ask. So
James Carville: [00:32:42] where's Becky
Charlie Cook: [00:32:42] now. Oh, our daughter, um, Are, um, when our daughter was probably a year, two years old, uh, we were together and James taught my daughter potty game where he had her sit in his lap and had her stick her arm out.
And then he pulled her on down like Fuze flushing, a toilet and would drop her down, but w on the floor and she would just squeal and delight. Well, uh, she is now the mother of a, uh, it'll be two years old on Monday. Uh, and they live in Santa Monica and she is a genetic counselor with her masters in genetic counseling.
And, uh, um, anyway, we're, we're real, real, real, real proud of Becky as we are with, uh, with, uh, all of our kids and actually our son, Jeff is with ABC news and he's down in the hurricane zone, uh, going through his second hurricane and was doing a forestry fire, California wildfires week. Uh, and then an aspiring football coach.
Al Hunt: [00:33:42] Well, tell her, tell Jeff to call my wife, Judy, because that's, so she made her name in television covering hurricanes realistic. It's a great stepping stone
James Carville: [00:33:52] and geographies show. You listen to the other part of the podcast. We had a cop from North Carolina is a foremost hurricane surge model in the world.
And we put in a lot of that and he would enjoy it.
Charlie Cook: [00:34:08] I'm a Mulligan.
Al Hunt: [00:34:10] Thank you so much. You, as I say you elevators, we will be back on with you sometime before November three and take it easy that last week duty up in Maine.
Charlie Cook: [00:34:21] Take care guys. Bye. Be safe.
Al Hunt: [00:34:29] Hurricane Lauren will not as deadly as beard inflicted severe damage, mainly in your home state of Louisiana. Also East, Texas. In Arkansas. One of America's foremost experts on storms is Rick MuTech director of the university of North Carolina Institute of Marine sciences. He has modeled these coastal systems at risk and is the leading expert on storm surges.
James, this is a subject, so dear to your heart and mind, why don't you start with that?
James Carville: [00:35:00] All right. Well, thank you. Not delude Jake. Uh, I guess my first question is, is we seem to be pretty definitive that Laura will push a 20 foot storm surge, at least according to press reports. It was 10 or 11 feet. Well, if that is correct, what, why, why was they by factor of half?
Dr. Rick Luettich: [00:35:24] Oh, well thank you for inviting me. It's a pleasure to be on your podcast and I'm happy to talk to you about this. Um, the best modeling that, that I have seen and been involved with had, uh, had the storm surge of about 17 feet as the maximum. So, so in that 15 to 20 foot range, I mean, and when you get that high, uh, I, I think that that's reasonable.
Uh, the, the data, the observations that were out there that we can kind of dial up and look at, uh, right after the event, most of the gauges broke. And so it's, it's kinda hard to get a really accurate Mmm Mmm. Record of what happened. But I happened to find one this morning, actually that I didn't know about.
That was an army Corps of engineers gauge that, right. It, a grand shinier had 17 feet. And so that's very close to what the models were predicting. Um, the other areas, uh, mouth of the calc from ship channel for example, was down around 10 feet. Um, but that's simply because of exactly the location of the storm and where it pushed the water, but over grand Shenir.
And fortunately that area is, uh, largely a wildlife refuge. There's not a lot of. People and, and, and infrastructure there to be damaged. But I think, I think all evidence is that though, that the surge in that area did reach the levels in which it was anticipated. And, uh, and, and it's just, fortunately it didn't happen in an area that was populated that there were people there to see it.
Yeah.
James Carville: [00:37:02] I think that, that also there was a wobble to the East right before landfall, which probably helped a lot with the storm church coming up. Calca Shu. It moves
Dr. Rick Luettich: [00:37:12] it moved, moved it a little bit to the East shore. It moved it to where it, it wasn't quite so, uh, in the face of, of, of, of the population centers.
Right?
James Carville: [00:37:25] So my friends, of course, our coach really follows storms and we watched the media and, you know, they have somebody on the seawall. Fort Lauderdale or they have been talking about the wind and the rain. And I think they're missing the press does not do nearly an adequate story to say that by far the biggest anchor, the storm thought of storm surge and the amount of immediate and longterm damage that they cause the, the you, I mean, you studied this.
Absolutely. Do you think the surge is a undercover women brain over carbon?
Dr. Rick Luettich: [00:38:02] Well, historically we talked about the category of the storm, which is all about the media and, and that's just, you know, that's just been the way we sort of evolved over the last decades. Um, Trina was one of the first dorms that I really remember vividly.
Where people stopped and started to say, wait a minute, it's this wasn't a category five storm, but it was catastrophic. And so it was really a very clear indication that the storm surge, the water was what does the most damage kills the most people. And it's hardest to recover from all three of those.
It's it's the water. And, uh, and then we start looking back in history and, and, and that's definitely been the case over the last century. And so, um, within the, within the community that works on this, there's been a big effort to, to, to push it out, uh, and take, try to get that message more broadly, uh, communicated.
Um, yet the venues, the meat that cover this are, is the weather media. It's the meteorological media. And, and so I think they just tend to fall back a little bit into that comfort zone of talking about the storm itself. Uh, and, and less about, uh, bless about the storm surge. And again, we've never developed a scale, a convenient yardstick to talk about storm surge, the way we have about, you know, the categories for, for the storm itself.
James Carville: [00:39:31] Right. So before out of what, one more question, what is the kind of one or two or three scenarios that keep people like you up at night? I mean, what, what would be the. What region and what would be a catastrophic thing? It would be abortion Reaper.
Dr. Rick Luettich: [00:39:51] I mean, you know,
could,
Dr. Rick Luettich: [00:39:54] uh, an, uh, a significant event, a major hurricane, uh, hitting, you know, right at one of our primary population centers along the Gulf or East, East coast of the U S are what.
To me, our, our, you know, we've had the two really big storms to really devastate storms, just from a power of it all have been Michael and now Laura, in the last couple of years, Harvey was up. Devastating storm, but it was rainfall, but just the power of these storms, Lauren and Michael and, and, and max beach in Florida was absolutely flattened by Michael.
But imagine what that would be like if that was a Miami or mobile or, or new Orleans or Houston, Galveston. Um, and so, so. To take a storm and the maximum conscious of a storm and put it right over a population center is what keeps me awake. In addition to one, coming to Morehead city, North Carolina, where I
James Carville: [00:40:59] lived.
Al Hunt: [00:41:00] Yeah, I know,
James Carville: [00:41:04] Lord, I don't want anybody to get it the place not in me.
Dr. Rick Luettich: [00:41:09] So I've studied these when they're going somewhere else and I've studied these when they're coming at me. So I look out my window and wonder whether the computer's telling me what I'm going to see out my window. And, and, uh, that's, that's a totally different experience.
Al Hunt: [00:41:25] Doctor. Nobody looks at those computers and those models. More carefully than you. Uh, this one
Charlie Cook: [00:41:32] was really
Al Hunt: [00:41:32] bad. There were people who die. There's lots of damage done. It wasn't as catastrophic as I gathered as people feared, it was going to be, um, you know, it's easy to say in Washington, not so much if you're in Lake Charles, but looking ahead, do you have any sense over the next six, seven weeks, whether this is going to be a particularly worse than
Charlie Cook: [00:41:50] usual, uh, hurricane
Al Hunt: [00:41:52] storm season, uh, and where it's most likely to hit.
Dr. Rick Luettich: [00:41:57] Um, you, you know, I have to, I have to say, I do think the folks down at the national hurricane center probably look at this stuff even closer than I do. So, I mean, we do have a good group down there that works very, very hard at this. So I think that's important to recognize, um, this season where it's not done.
I mean, there are. A half a dozen, at least I would say, I mean, you know, this is just a gambler's chance, but the statistics are there. The evidence is there. We're going to have at least a half a dozen to maybe a dozen more storms. I mean, the peak of the season tends to be a second week in September. So, um, so again, if you roll the dice that many times.
Um, it's very likely that we're going to have at least a couple more, that significantly impact the coast of, of the United States. Be it the Gulf coast or the Southeast coast, um, Florida, Louisiana, a Texas North Carolina are the primary strike points for the thorn. So, uh, again, it's not a, it's not a real statistical challenge here to guess that one of these areas is very likely.
To have another major event, if not two or three more, uh, before the season.
Al Hunt: [00:43:17] Well, my God, I mean that that's terrible under any circumstances, but in the middle of what will be a continuing pandemic where you have to evacuate people, uh, this may be the worst hurricane crisis potentially we've ever had.
Dr. Rick Luettich: [00:43:35] Well, it certainly set itself up that it could be a, um, again, I, I, I am hard pressed to, to anticipate something of the, of the level of what we had to live through with Katrina, uh, in greater new Orleans. And then if you go back in time to the great Galveston storm or early in the 20th century, Um, I mean, those were so devastating.
Um, but, but this, but that the pandemic makeup, the evacuation process extremely difficult. And, and it makes the managing this at a local level that you're trying to open to response and provide for people. Uh, at the local level, it gives them a huge concern because, um, imagine a COVID-19. With folks in the Superdome, the convention center, uh, you know, or, or even smaller shelters, how those to play against each other and, and yeah, be a real, a real problem.
So, what
Al Hunt: [00:44:41] are places you live in North Carolina? What kind of preparations can and are being made if your three storms do it mid September
Charlie Cook: [00:44:50] a delayed September?
Dr. Rick Luettich: [00:44:52] Well, I mean, I just know anecdotally what I hear around here, but I do know that there's more effort to try to maybe seek out and free. Um, pre-claim or pre reserve hotel rooms and things like that, as opposed to, again, school gymnasiums as shelters.
Uh, you know, I think that there is, there has been proactive efforts by at least our local communities to look for low dense, lower density solutions in the case that evacuations are needed. Um, but. As a general rule, we've been on prepared even in a non emergency situation for the patient. So, um, so, Oh, I'm sure there will be surprises if there ends up being truly a, a,
James Carville: [00:45:46] a,
Dr. Rick Luettich: [00:45:46] a collision between pandemic based decisions versus evacuation based decisions.
It'll be interesting. I mean, there was a massive evacuation, um, from. Galveston and, and from, you know, areas in Texas. And so it will be interesting to learn a little bit more about how, to, what extent the pandemic changed or, or affected how that was done or not.
James Carville: [00:46:13] I think it was Florence, but there was a pretty wet storm that hit leads to not North Carolina.
And there was concern about flooding. And as I recall it, they were. Manure pins from pig farms that, you know, got into the water system. Is there been any longterm damage, you know, sort of, so we come in, we, we read about it. We watch it on TV. The storm started proceeds and then we forget about it. It's anything changed in Eastern North Carolina is a result of that excessive flooding.
Charlie Cook: [00:46:47] Okay.
Dr. Rick Luettich: [00:46:50] Yeah, that's a very good question. Uh, um, and the damage to the environment is oftentimes unseen and, and, and largely forgotten about, um, you know, it tends to be short term, but there is, but the environment is amazingly resilient. Um, and so, um, you know, for the most part, I think it, it has come back reasonably well.
Um, You know, I think what you really asked the question about is how is it,
Charlie Cook: [00:47:22] how have
Dr. Rick Luettich: [00:47:22] people been able to come back from this? And, you know, again, Katrina had a massive migration out of greater new Orleans and new Orleans at a different place today than it was before then. Um, and I just don't know the answer to that from a human standpoint, how, how Florence may have changed.
The, the demographics or, or the population here in North Carolina. But to be honest, I I'm working with social sciences, uh, colleagues at the university of North Carolina to try to understand that better and to, to begin, to try to create at least a baseline that we can follow in the future. So we have better data on that.
James Carville: [00:48:03] Good. Yeah. I mean, I guess I have plenty of, I think a lot of worst case scenarios, one of the worst. That strikes me is Miami because there's only one way out of Miami. Exactly. And, uh, you know, if you're a wall and as you can, you can go to Houston or you can go to, to Pensacola, I guess, somewhere on you can go.
If you're in Miami, you can go North and that's about it.
Dr. Rick Luettich: [00:48:29] Well, and if you have an Irma, if you have a storm that comes up the spine of Florida, Then then, you know, you got to get, you got to start in Miami and then keep going and going and going until you get to North Carolina or something.
James Carville: [00:48:45] Yeah. A lot of people point while you going, there's going to be a lot of going on the road.
Dr. Rick Luettich: [00:48:48] Yeah. And, and, and the Miami people then hit the, you know, the Daytona beach people that then hit the Jacksonville people and all of that. And so, um, so, so, uh, shelter in place becomes almost an essential part of dealing with things, uh, storms like this. The further out the further South, really you get, uh, and Miami massive evacuations, oughta Miami may or may not be realistic for a storm.
That's coming largely up the spine off. If it's an Andrew storm that just kind of comes perpendicular to the coast and straight across, then you've got to get out of the way of that.
James Carville: [00:49:26] And by the way, when that happens more often than not. We get it right. They come across the phone financial.
Dr. Rick Luettich: [00:49:32] Exactly.
James Carville: [00:49:33] And then boom.
It, it gets here and it had started toward the Northern
Dr. Rick Luettich: [00:49:37] Gulf. Andrew.
James Carville: [00:49:41] Absolutely. I think that's a long time ago also. Yep. And then you also have to worry that it's not as much as the Atlantic, but sometimes these hurricanes form in the Caribbean and just come right straight up. I eat Camille. Yup. Which you know, is always something that if you live in an awesome Gulf, you're always watching what's going on in
Dr. Rick Luettich: [00:50:04] the Caribbean and they form right in the Gulf too.
I mean, Michael Michael formed in the Gulf. Right. Great. Thank you,
sir.
James Carville: [00:50:14] Anybody wants to please look up? The CB, which it's just fricking awesome. And John Berry, who I think knows a little something about this, just thinks the world of you. And that you're one of the best academics in the country that deals with these issues.
So from my vantage point up, thank you very much, a real privilege to have you on our podcast.
Charlie Cook: [00:50:35] Why would,
Al Hunt: [00:50:36] I would just second that, and you've been great today. Let me just ask you a final question, which we cannot avoid in these times. I'm a professor and that is, is there any danger if we do have a couple beds storms, uh, is there any danger of, of, of politicizing the reaction and not reacting as we should?
Dr. Rick Luettich: [00:50:56] One, one certainly goes to bed at night, hoping that that would not be the case. Um, Uh, these are very, very polarized times. And so, uh, to just, uh, ignore that possibility and not plan for it would be, uh, would be imprudent. So I hope that doesn't be, it isn't the case, but I think we ought to at least be aware and be on our garden and.
And also, you know, the media is critical in terms of trying to keep us on track. And so, um, the more we can make sure that doesn't happen and get a message out publicly, I think the better chance we have perhaps to make sure it doesn't happen.
Charlie Cook: [00:51:41] Well,
Al Hunt: [00:51:41] okay. We all can agree on that and all hope that there are no more storms, uh, this season, uh, anywhere and, uh, probably a little bit extra, uh, hope that they're not going to be in new Orleans or, and more edge city.
But, uh,
Charlie Cook: [00:51:55] we have learned a lot, uh,
Al Hunt: [00:51:57] from you, Rick Lou tech, uh, the director of the university of North Korea Institute of Marine sciences, and one of the foremost experts in the country, probably the world on the storm surges. And let's just hope we're all safe for the next six weeks. Thank you so much, sir.
Dr. Rick Luettich: [00:52:10] Thank you very much. I've enjoyed it and do say hi to John Barry for me.
James Carville: [00:52:15] I definitely will. And thank you
Charlie Cook: [00:52:16] again.
Al Hunt: [00:52:22] Let's spend two minutes talking about that, that I thought extraordinary
Charlie Cook: [00:52:27] Trump convention. It
Al Hunt: [00:52:28] wasn't a Republican convention. Uh, it was some of the most bizarre moments.
Charlie Cook: [00:52:34] I have ever seen,
Al Hunt: [00:52:35] and I've seen a lot of bizarre moments, but you know that the sun,
Charlie Cook: [00:52:41] uh, trying
Al Hunt: [00:52:42] to,
James Carville: [00:52:43] uh, reprise the gift for speech, let's
Al Hunt: [00:52:45] win it for uncle Robert.
Charlie Cook: [00:52:47] Uh,
Al Hunt: [00:52:47] Rudy Giuliani, uh, uh, you know, showing what it's like to have a nervous breakdown on national television. Uh, it
James Carville: [00:52:55] just was, it was a bizarre group of people. Uh,
Al Hunt: [00:52:59] James
James Carville: [00:53:00] w since the first thought it was his speech, but 71 minutes, do you know how long bill Clinton speech? You said a 1988 democratic convention worse?
Al Hunt: [00:53:13] I do. Cause you told me
James Carville: [00:53:15] 43 minutes. Yeah. I mean, it's always in there. Tar convention was just to make daddy feel good. Alright. He's depressed. as of 1152, yesterday am they were on television in one media market and that was Washington DC. There are no television booked. Anyway, we went and arrested a country except portion DC.
And. Everything is trying that trying desperately to calm him down the best they can. And they had to do to convince, to do just that, to make it by him and get him in a better mood because he knows he's behind and he knows if he loses he's going to the penitentiary and he's not. And I wouldn't be in a good mood either.
If I thought there was a good chance, I was going to end up in a penitentiary, which if he loses is exactly where he's going to end up. And TIAA and Rudy was really going to follow him in there.
Dr. Rick Luettich: [00:54:19] Really, really
Charlie Cook: [00:54:19] wasn't bizarre. And there
Al Hunt: [00:54:20] were so many things that you could say, but what I loved
Charlie Cook: [00:54:23] was
Dr. Rick Luettich: [00:54:24] these,
Al Hunt: [00:54:25] you know, Ivanka and others talking about how this is the hardest working man alive.
I mean, you know, he watches Fox news all morning, then show up in the office till noon. Plays golf five times more than a Barack Obama. I may be exaggerating, but not much. Uh, it just is a, this is not the, the presidency is not heavy lifting,
Charlie Cook: [00:54:44] uh, for this group.
James Carville: [00:54:46] Clearly their hope was that somehow or another people walk away from this convention was probably headed, but I don't know where they were last night leading into the us historically low numbers.
Oh, so they thought more people were going to show up on the lawn at the white house that did, because he would moving chairs right before the event. Right. So, but what they were trying to, anybody watch to say, Oh, he's a lot more human than you think, and he's going to protect you from crime. I mean, that's what they tried to get out and how successfully we'll see.
Right. Well, you know,
Al Hunt: [00:55:20] his, his, um, kids were there and his son-in-law was there. You know, it wasn't there. I didn't see a sister. Did you?
James Carville: [00:55:28] Or I didn't see his name. Um, I don't think she was invited. Not at, I see his niece,
Al Hunt: [00:55:35] the sisters that judge
James Carville: [00:55:36] you. Wouldn't you,
Al Hunt: [00:55:37] why wouldn't we invite a sister,
James Carville: [00:55:39] James? I'm sure his sister does.
I can't imagine why. Maybe she knows him. You know, I love it. This is Nadine. A nightmare. I hope. Oh, jolly and IRO and you are right. And the nightmares start leaping until it ends. No one's arrest right
Dr. Rick Luettich: [00:55:59] in six
Al Hunt: [00:56:00] days. Hey James, this has been a great show. Uh,
Charlie Cook: [00:56:03] I thought the professor was
Al Hunt: [00:56:04] terrific. Uh, and Charlie cook just makes me, he just makes me feel good every time I talked to him, he's so smart and insightful and wonderful.
James Carville: [00:56:14] And that kind of shows I like, where were we? Probably something obvious where after hurricane season is obvious, but to have a, an obvious guest and just very critical, all these forums get covered. You know,
Al Hunt: [00:56:28] I know, I know you like
James Carville: [00:56:29] to do it, but, uh, you know, as a people need to understand this better, because it's going to be a fact of life.
Charlie Cook: [00:56:38] This year. In fact, the
Al Hunt: [00:56:39] life is you be safe out there in the Shenandoah for at least until next week. And I want to thank, I wanna thank everybody for listening to 2025 ticks war room. Follow the show on
Charlie Cook: [00:56:52] Twitter at politics
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Thanks for subscribing. Please rate the show. Be generous, a five star review. We hope. We'll be back next week. As we count down to November three,
Charlie Cook: [00:57:10] I can
Al Hunt: [00:57:10] promise you we're going to have a terrific guest. Don't know who yet, but it will be terrific. So please stay safe and healthy out there by until next week.