Governor Terry McAuliffe and Delegate Expert Jeff Berman
Former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe talks election politics postulating that Michael Bloomberg could take Virgnia. James and Al borrow time from Tom Steyer's senior advisor Jeff Berman to share his expertise on delegates. Christy 'Numbers' Harvey tries to keep baseball boring.
Speaker 1: Welcome to 2020 politics war room. James Carville is in Louisiana and I'm Al hunt. What a week. I mean, Iowa last week, New Hampshire this week. Lord knows what's ahead, but I want you first to please subscribe, rate and review the show on Apple podcast, Spotify, Stitcher, or wherever you listen to your podcast. And James, before we get going, I want to, I [00:00:30] want to thank again the sign instituted AAU public policy headed by the great Amy Dacey, our partner here in the AAU Eagles, the men's and women's team. James, this little interest, you, they beat army and Navy this past week. How about that? Alright, go. Eagles, man flying
Speaker 3: hide AAU and Northwest Washington. Martin Martin, both beautiful, well located campus anywhere in the United States. Brought away with a president who is, who is unsurpassed. Sylvia Burwell. You couldn't ask for anybody else who worked for me in 1992. [00:01:00] Oh wow. She's, she's grown James' ophthalmologists like in Charleston, West Virginia gal. Yeah. Yeah, she was a road scholar. Listen, speaking of the best, we have got the best today. Uh, and this, uh, turbulent, uh, uh, political world. Terry McCullough, former governor of Virginia, former DNC chair, top advisor to bill and Hillary Clinton. There is no one that understands the rhythms or lack of the same of American politics better than the governor. Terry, thank you [00:01:30] for being with us. Could it be with, man, I've been doing this 40 years, man. I'm old as dirt. Oh, you don't know what it's like to be old to your toe, whereas we're, we're, we're just about as old as Joe by.
Speaker 3: Look. Hey, Carrie, uh, New Hampshire, uh, beat Bernie, won to Iowa and New Hampshire. Uh, Amy kind of snuck in there for kind of a third place in New Hampshire. Biden and Warren looked like they're on their last legs. Where does this thing stand now? Well, I tell you, [00:02:00] we've never seen anything like this before. Usually I win New Hampshire a winnowing process. It is expanded. Um, I would make the argument, you know, Bernie had been campaigning for six years. High expectations in Iowa didn't meet those expectations. Supposed to win New Hampshire. He wanted 60, you know, 60% of the vote. The last time he got 25 this time, lowest winning percentage of any candidate to win the new, uh, when the New Hampshire primary, right. I think the big news out of it, obviously, I mean, you gotta give Pete Buddha judge credit. I mean this was, [00:02:30] this was a guy who ran for DNC chair a to put years ago, a mayor of a small town and yeah, and now look at him today.
Speaker 3: Uh, I think he would have won. I think obviously Amy had a very good debate. Had she not had a good debate. I think Pete booted. Judge would've won it by five or 10 points in New Hampshire. She took his votes. So when you move to Nevada and South Carolina, which are the next, over the next, uh, two weeks, um, totally different. One totally caucus, [00:03:00] like I will, but a different kind of a caucus, Latinos and a heavy African-American. So what do, I mean there's, what do you look for there? There's no, if Joe Biden's slipping, there's no natural candidates. You don't need South Carolina, is there? Well, Joe keeps saying, you know, South Carolina, I disagree with that strategy in that he's got to do well in Nevada. He could win South Carolina, but that is on Saturday the 29th, three days later, our 15 contest, 14 States. Uh, you've got Texas, California, North Carolina, Virginia, the delegates.
Speaker 3: [00:03:30] Yeah. On one day 30 and raise money. Well, you can't win on a Saturday. The next day is a Sunday and deposit money and buy TV. So he's, he's got to show that he can do something in the next, you know, 10 days. You've got to win. He's got to win Nevada. I think he's got a big win. He's got to win Nevada. I think it lives with Warren is in a very similar, Joe at least has made the argument these are two white, white States. I mean they are two of the six whitest States in America. I win New Hampshire. I have long advocated to get rid of them. I think [00:04:00] we should get rid of all caucuses. I have argued, when I was chairman of the national party, I brought up South Carolina. I brought up Arizona. I brought up New Mexico, Michigan to show the diversity of our party.
Speaker 3: So you know, I'm not a big fan of those first two contests. So Joe's argument is I'll do well with the African American community, but he's got a show, he's got strength in the Latino community. Let me ask just one question, James, one more question then I'll turn it over you. You mentioned super Tuesday several times. There is a big new entry, a starting March three who I understand has some pockets [00:04:30] named Michael Bloomberg. Yep. Can you see Michael Bloomberg, a Republican mayor of New York city turned Democrat, might spend as much, some people say as $2 billion. Uh, could he be viable? I think he'll spend up to three. Yup. I just did a press conference with them in Richmond. Um, you know, I'm neutral cause I'm a CNN commentator, but when I ran for governor, he was very helpful and more importantly he gave me millions of dollars to help me win at our state level. On the issues of gun prevention, on the issues of climate change. So, [00:05:00] you know, he, he, he helped me a lot. I did a press conference with him down in Virginia. Uh, he's popular there. Sure. I mean, you spend, you know, hell, you put $3 billion out there. We're going to put you and Judy in the white house. I want you to have that opportunity. James Carville weigh in.
Speaker 4: So, all right, let's talk about the elephant in the room here. Joe Biden. All right, I'm going to speak for both of you. I know both of you well Joe Biden is, is, is a very good man. Nice man. Good Democrat, has done many admirable things [00:05:30] in his life, is worthy of our love and respect. However, in my opinion, he is been the most destructive force. Four nominating the kind of people that we'd like to be somebody because when he ran, I think he had an influence. Terror, McCall's decision not to run. I think he influenced Mitchell Andrew's decision not to run. I think he blocked access him of Michael Bennett or Steve Bullock. Uh, Cory Booker [00:06:00] are other people and he just sat there at the beginning just sitting on top of 30th or 33% of the boat. [inaudible] it was never going to happen. And now it's collapsed. We're stuck with this. And I, I, I hate to say this, but in some ways I think Joe Biden is responsible for the state of affairs, current democratic party.
Speaker 3: I, I agree. It was a big factor in my decision whether I was gonna run. I went over and spent hours with Joe Biden hours [00:06:30] with him talking about it. I think the governor should, should be the nominee. I mean governors, we run States at 110,000 employees, $109 billion budget. Let
Speaker 4: just say where w where we are. Alright, so to Jay, let's talk about mayor Mike cause we have to set a days out to act. We find out he's out to Aspen Institute in 2015 saying, well, brush annex crime area because it be kind of like an California, we gotta be a little careful a little [00:07:00] bit before he's commenting on China and Hong Kong. Well, they're, they're kind of a democratic government and Joe was really responsive to public opinion. All right. What I think is going on here, they have business in Russia and China, but don't you think that this issue is going to get flushed out here very shortly?
Speaker 3: Oh, absolutely. I mean, you know, listen, he got dusted up yesterday for a radio interview he had done when he was mayor about taking young African Americans and put them up against the wall. So as we all know on this, all of us sitting here, we've [00:07:30] been through this long time there. If it's out there, it's coming out. And we are in a, in a tough shape today. So look at our front runners, Lucas, what's happening? I think I've first time I've said this a long time, there is a real distinct possibility we get through March 3rd, they're still going to be three or four plan. 2 billion are still in the race. This thing could go to Milwaukee.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it could. Yeah, it could. I, you know, listen, I eat Jay. I ain't James Ray's good boy. I, I worked for Bloomberg, uh, Bloomberg news, not Michael, uh, for 14 [00:08:00] years. I've known him for a long time. I think he is a, uh, you know, a total straight shooter. I have confidence as a man who had run a very ethical white house. He should announced right now that he is going to sell that company. Uh, if he is elected, you can't put it in the blind trust cause that ain't blind. And after Donald Trump, he ought to do it because James is right. There are going to be other stories about this and he ought to get out ahead of it.
Speaker 4: I looked at my, any of my Brian Bernie's like my child is, is running the Sal's farm. Walter Isaacson, who do I love as much as [00:08:30] anybody was calling him James [inaudible] and milling, who's like runs a poll uptown. You all ends it like calling me [inaudible]. [inaudible] not going to Dawson anybody because I'm Masana come to EICU. Terrible. Pardon dude. NBC skirt. Okay. But I have to anyway bothering Dawson by. But if we don't talk about way these vulnerabilities are in, address them and deal with them. Just like we had to Biden. Vulnerability of me telling y'all times when he announced the only organization that gives and has been run by 80 year olds is the Roman Catholic church. [00:09:00] Why we didn't, but it doesn't do you any good if you don't flush these things out and talk about it. And of course I'll be fine. Bloomberg, I think he was a competent mayor. I'd like to hear them string a sentence together just for fun. I hadn't heard it in five years, but I think we're going to get a chance to see him and in Nevada and all I'm going to be looking for is, you know, he doesn't have to be great. He doesn't have a, everybody says he's not a great speaker. He's not that comfortable speaking. All he's gotta do is just be coherent and I'll be happy.
Speaker 2: [00:09:30] Oh, he'll, I'm convinced there'll be bad. He's not warm and fuzzy. He's not going to work a rope line very well. You're not going to be a great candidate, but I think he'll do fine in debate because he's smart and he'll be prepared. But you know, you're right. It's a big test.
Speaker 4: I'll trust you but I'll verify. No, no, you're right. I mean Terry, what do you think?
Speaker 3: Yeah, listen, he obviously, you know on the plus side, this guy has built, as he talks about his father made six grand a year. He built, built a mill type, multibillion dollar operation, hired thousands of people, paid him extremely well, gives all of his money [00:10:00] to charity today. So listen, he's got some things he needs.
Speaker 4: Tony was a guy, but by all accounts on the ho [inaudible] good. A competent, a really competent mayor. Everybody that ever dealt with the city of New York when he was Arab was always impressed. Preston meetings, you know, it was, it was a well to extent you can run New York. Well it was well run city on the Daggett or she had any issue like any big city mayor has, but aye. Aye [inaudible] got it. He was a three three term mayor to that kind of [00:10:30] stuck a pitch bow and a third time, but that's okay. I'll give him credit for that, but I'm to ask some questions coming up.
Speaker 3: Oh, going to be tough. Yeah, and the other issue is going to be, let's say we get to the convention. Let's think about this for a second. Let's assume, I mean he's a factor because of the money, right? I live in Northern Virginia. There is an ad every three minutes. I've never seen it. Unbelievable. All over the country. He's got over 2000 staff today. He's paying them all the way through November. The one benefit to many of his ads really going after Trump. So he soften and Trump up. I do like what he's doing. [00:11:00] He's doing digital, which you want a lot of really behind on, but we get it to Milwaukee. Let's just say he's there. No one is going to have 1,991 delegates. I don't see that. I remind you that Barack Obama did not have it when he ran in 2008 Hillary did not have it in 2016 they had to throw, you know, the other candidates had to move their delegates. The only guy to do it is John Kerry back in 2004 is there ever going to be a Sanders delegate at that convention? Who would ever vote for Michael Bloomberg? I find that highly Terry,
Speaker 2: I think [00:11:30] you're so right. But what it is is Tom Perez, the chairman, stupidly cave to the Bernie people and super delegates don't get to vote in the first and the first row who are super delegates. They are Congressman, they are senators, they're governors. They are the people who make governing and the party work. I mean, why the hell would you want to leave those people out? I mean basically the elected president to govern and they get to vote on the second and if it's
Speaker 3: Michael Bloomberg versus Bernie Sanders and the superdelegates putting a across, which they probably would, I [00:12:00] mean the Bernie bros will go ballistic. Well, the other thing I'm going to happy about the party about right now, let's be, you know, they capitulate on a lot of stuff for Bernie as it related to what we're going to do in the Iowa caucus. Right? So the edit, these two extra vote totals that were going to be reported, I cannot tell you how embarrassing it was for our party in the middle of everything with Trump's acquittal that we couldn't count 170,000.
Speaker 4: Terry, you are between us with pilot 150 years in American politics, but [00:12:30] for the longest time we've worked in campaigns. You ran for office, you covered them. I managed them. The post-close, we sat in front of the television. Uh, they'd call in if you're governor of Pennsylvania, Ron government, Virginia, generally about nine 30 at night. You know, like ms Mabel had Shannon door, County ward two precinct 41 calls in and says the Republicans got X votes, which is a lot more [00:13:00] to Democrat would having shown door counters. The Democrats. I've, I've transcribed it and the secretary of state, what that was not broken. You could just, why did you have to get a phone app to do something? In my experience, Eric Truman did the counted votes back deck.
Speaker 3: Yeah. Well James, you're right. But Terry's points is, is absolutely dead on. It was the national committee that insisted you have to put all three together. I mean, they did it for Bernie because they wanted the total vote though. Right? The Iowa party screwed up. There's no question that, and it was 70,000 [00:13:30] votes less than we had no weight and they still couldn't do it. Right. I understand.
Speaker 4: Why part of the Jack, you say if Ron Brown would you say when Terry McAuliffe was running the national committee and you had the most important night of the year for the democratic party, and I will party said, we don't want you involved, you st Karen McCall said, I'm gonna fly out to Des Moines now let me sit down and we've got to have technical assist here. You let me know what we can do to back you up, mr chairman, because it's the same thing is saying that the Louisiana people [00:14:00] could take care of Katrina. No, we can't. We're overwhelmed. That guided runs to Iowa party does not have the expertise to do that. And [inaudible]
Speaker 3: I did a delicate, I think I would've had a better car, a little tougher conversation as this reflects on the national part of never let him,
Speaker 4: that party go off on its own and do that. Ron Brown would have never done that. Alright. And if I was managing the campaign and I had a DMC channel numbers and get your fucking ass back over there and make sure these people get this thing right.
Speaker 3: I [00:14:30] think that's closer to what chairman McCauliffe, uh, might've said, look, let's let, it was a total, it's awful. And they're still paying a price for it. But, but, but speaking of pain and price, let's look at Terry. I mean, Nevada right now sitting out in Nevada are two really important forces. Harry Reed, who's still, despite cancer, is really active. And the culinary workers I gathered, they both are, they're just, they're, they're stymied. They wanted to be with Joe. Joe's not, but they don't like Bernie. They don't like single-payer. They don't have much of an option. They've gone [00:15:00] nuclear on Bernie. I've, you just, they've, they have their 60,000 singles, but, but, but Bernie, Bernie is the one other mayor. Pete apparently has a pretty good organization out there, but Bernie's got, you know, the residuals of left of 2016 he gonna win again. But don't forget, in 2008, president Obama had the culinary.
Speaker 3: We did not Hillary. Right. And we stomped him in every single one of those satellite caucuses. You barely barely beat him. And he got more delegates in the vote. But we won the pipe over. We'd wanted [00:15:30] every one of those satellite casinos we want. So my only point with the culinary is don't put too much credibility on that. My only point is you don't know what's going to happen. No. But if they sit it out, that helps Bernie. Yeah. No, that's, that's, that's the point I'm making because they're unhappy about the healthcare piece. Yeah. The Barney, the Bernie bros evaluation, are you, is that your cooperatives too bothered? Clintonian uh, I don't know. What would you just go through some of the progressive [00:16:00] things that you accomplish through the use of [inaudible] politics while you were governor, the Commonwealth of Virginia? Could you just tell us that?
Speaker 3: Yeah, let me, I, I can tell you a lot. As governor, forget about the economic inherited, the largest deficit left, the largest surplus as governor, we're taking him off the road talking about things that progressive would like. Uh, I restored more felon rights than any governor in the history of the United States of America. You had franchise 200, 6,000 felons more and was sued twice taking the Virginia Supreme [00:16:30] court and I won, reduce my juvenile population by two thirds. I banned the box, I took the Confederate flag off the license plate. A lot of good stuff. You were a great, you were a great governor is no, no question about it. You would've been a great presidential candidate too. But you know, we talked about Nevada. Let's go to South Carolina. I mean, well as many as 60% of that vote could be African Americans. They had been with Biden cause they knew him and he did very well.
Speaker 3: I mean you look at the others. Bernie is not a natural [00:17:00] candidate for African Americans. Uh, and both booted judge and club char have their home States. I mean the Moines, they, they say he fired a black sheriff in the NAACP. Minneapolis is calling Klobuchar to suspend your campaign. There is no natural appeal down there right now. Dairy. That's my point is I don't know why Joe keeps telling on South Carolina, you ought to put a big marker down in Nevada, right? He needs, if he's going to jumpstart this thing, he needs Nevada and South Carolina and then he would have a credible argument and jumpstart this thing here. Oh, okay. Where are we? [00:17:30] Yeah. So we have w what? Well, what, I believe it a sacred word. Did you ask us politics and I liked the word coalitions that you build a coalition. All right? So we need to have somebody, what's sufficient political skill that is able to cut margins that we
Speaker 4: got beat by in 2016 in Weston, Pennsylvania, Northern Wisconsin or, or central Michigan. And at the same time, if we're going to carry North [00:18:00] Carolina and Georgia in particular, we're going to have to have somebody that can really excite, motivate, and turn out African American voters that they're going to be the key in places like that. Okay. [inaudible] if we don't recognize that [inaudible] we let Bernie drivers toward purity tests, that's never gonna happen. [inaudible] w one of these people left if got to develop the political skill to walk into a, a African American church and [00:18:30] Winston Salem, uh, walk into a, uh, you know, PTA African American school meeting and Albany, Georgia and campaign in Western Pennsylvania and cut the margins by 10%. I hope we find that person. I hope we find it because that's what we need. We need it. We need a, a party needs a politician and I don't see any in there right now.
Speaker 3: Well, yeah, yeah. I think you're absolutely right. One of those States we talked about super Tuesday were over, over a third [00:19:00] of the delegates are elected huge States. One of them is Virginia, you know, 99 delegates right now, Terry, it's doing a half, fourth biggest. Yep. Yeah. Right now, uh, you know, let's say going in there, which I think is reasonable. It's Bernie, it's Mike Bloomberg. Uh, and it's mayor Pete. I'm just picking one of the others. We're still [inaudible] still leading the polls, but that if Joe doesn't make, if it's those three, give us an assessment reason polls show that, you know, Biden was still leading and that Michael Bloomberg was really surge in there. And the point, [00:19:30] as I said earlier, he is on TV and I will give him credit. His ads are very good. They are and they're after Trump on a lot of issues.
Speaker 3: We have a lot of federal workers in Virginia. We have the most military bases of any state in America, 27 largest Naval base in the world in Norfolk, Virginia. He is doing ads that are appealing and you know, Virginia is really five States. We've got rural, suburban and we got the whole piece there and we need a candidate that literally can, you know, I spent as much time working on rural issues is [00:20:00] I did on suburban and urban. You know, I reduced the rural population unemployment by 50% in every rural County in Virginia. I didn't care if you voted for me, I wanted you to have a job because everybody wants a quality job and a great education. I put more money, $1 billion, largest investment ever in K-12. I put the most money ever, uh, in our pre K, you know, this is what people want to hear from us and to be talking about all these issues that are never going to happen and that we're talking about how would we glow or prescription drug costs. That's what people want [00:20:30] from us. And they don't want to hear about all of this stuff up here and I'm going to lose my private health insurance. Dammit. Talk to me about what I face every single day. And the Democrats are not doing that. You think if it were, if, if Joe does crater, which is a distinct possibility, Mike would be the favorite in Virginia
Speaker 4: right now. It's a tough question now. I mean, if Joe craters, where does that support go? I think probably people, listen, we got this in the moderate space, call it, you've now got, you know, five people in it [00:21:00] and they're all splitting up the voters. I say it Amy, not done well in the debate. Pete would have won in New Hampshire. Clearly I think he would have won by five, 10 points. So, um, it's, it's probably too early to tell, but my only point is I tried to tell these folks, you got to start talking to people about issues that matter to them and they just talk past people all the time. Drives me nuts. Oh God, dude is there is a utter lack of political skill that I see. It is [00:21:30] candidate studies campaigns. I, I, it is stunning to me how nobody can deflect a question drive a narrative, can frame a message. [inaudible]
Speaker 4: can not allowed themselves to get down. I mean, you know, and I, I, you know, at each, whenever something goes bad that there's one moment where you go, Oh my God, I didn't see this. All right. It used to be Bernie talking about it. Terrorists voting from a jail cell and it ended up [inaudible] Elizabeth [00:22:00] Warren pledging at a nine year old could veto a cabinet appointee. All right? Now I understand that in New Hampshire, which is adjacent to Vermont and Massachusetts, the Sanders Warren comm combo vote was 35 okay. But yet we have tow that we are being dominated by the leftist wing of the democratic party. I do not know how punditry or journalism or anything else ever got [00:22:30] to this point, but what somebody please read D election returns. That is a bad number for an ideological candidate. And one of the things that happened, people believe in New Hampshire is that the turnout was [inaudible]. Oh. Because a lot of more independence came in to vote against Bernie. That's not a good sign in a swing state like New Hampshire. That's not a positive thing. People
Speaker 2: and I will, 55% [00:23:00] was in the matter of progressive, moderate space in Iowa. The other bad news from New Hampshire is the young people that had been the core of Bernie support. The vote was actually down, uh, from last time. The vote overall was up. Well, listen, uh, speaking of being up, there's nobody better than Terry McAuliffe and the democratic party would listen to Terry McAuliffe and James Carville, uh, and in these turbine and times ahead and if anybody had an out there, uh, if you missed it last summer, get beyond Charlottesville. Governor Terry [00:23:30] McAuliffe, a New York times bestseller for a kid. Did you get suspended in the third grade? Yeah, I got thrown out. A third grade teacher said, I talked too much, man. This is my second bestseller. I'll tell you that. None. It'd be rolling in her grave. Oh, wow. Hey, governor America's governor. Thank you. You're terrific.
Speaker 2: Jeff Berman, a legend from the 2008 Obama [00:24:00] campaign against Hillary Clinton where he was the delicate guy and was able to project with unerring accuracy, uh, exactly what Obama needed to do and did. He's now working, uh, with Tom Stier. Uh, but we really want to talk to him, James, about what seems to be this incredibly complicated system of delegates. And it happens, uh, soon on March the third, I think it's over 33%, 37, 38%. And there are questions like thresholds [00:24:30] and you, you can get a headache thinking about it. Jeff, what, what do you look for now? If you're, you know, go back, the rules are different than Oh eight. You can talk about the differences, but, but, but as, as we try to, you know, gain this out, what do you, what do you, what should we be looking at and what you'd be looking for?
Speaker 5: Well, I, I think the, uh, the way the delegates are allocated by the democratic party of course, is pure PR proportional representation, which is different from the Republicans. So we have to think in terms of how many candidates [00:25:00] will there be, who will be dividing up the delegates. And the delegates don't really start, uh, adding up until super Tuesday on March 3rd. So right now we're in this, what I consider almost like the exhibition season or, uh, you know, where the, we have these four preliminary contests and, uh, of course it's Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina that occur back to back through the month of February. And this is the testing ground for the candidates. [00:25:30] And so during this month, the real task is to establish your candidacy to get traction. Yeah, maybe you'll win a few delegates, but there's less than 4% of the delegates in the country available this month. So it's really not about the delegates right now. It's about establishing your candidacy so that when we get to March 3rd super Tuesday when there's going to be hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of delegates all available [00:26:00] on one day, that you can win delegates in as broad an area as you can.
Speaker 2: Okay. So we hit that day and I'm a candidate candidateX and I look at California, 416 delegates or Texas, a 228 delegates, and it's done by congressional district as well as state wide, but mainly C D. so what do I do? I look and I say that I want to figure out, uh, where I can meet this threshold or where I can reach top, I don't know, 60, 70 I mean, give me the kind of calculations [00:26:30] you make as you look at that. Right.
Speaker 5: Okay. So you're correct about one third of the delegates are allocated based on the statewide vote. But most of the delegates, about two thirds are allocated by and in every state. That's congressional district, except for Texas on super Tuesday. They use state Senate today. Yes. And so what you need to do is you need to look at each district, you need to look at the voting history and the demographic makeup [00:27:00] and get a sense of what is your candidates strengths in which districts and which media markets are those districts in. What does it cost to compete in those districts? And most campaigns, you know, they basically match their budget and their, their resources with what, what are the opportunities that look like they're available to that candidate? You know, there's a increased speculation about Nikes, [00:27:30] Sovos and Ron Brown stain. I mean people, if people are saying that, that there's a good chance that we get there without a a nominate.
Speaker 5: Yeah. The most experienced person audition in the country probably to take on the democratic side. Do you, do you think there's a good chance we get to Milwaukee and nobody's at 1900 wherever they need to be? There's certainly a chance and I would say a greater chance than we've seen in recent cycles. Certainly in 2008 and 2016 we essentially had two [00:28:00] candidates running. So unless we had a flat out tie, somebody was going to get that majority. But, uh, now we have so many candidates still in the mix. And, and what we don't know is how many candidates will be in the mix in two weeks. And I guarantee you the mix in two weeks is going to be different from the mix today. Uh, it'll presumably be a smaller mix, but we are in somewhat uncharted [00:28:30] territory here. Uh, we started this race, as, you know, with over 20 candidates and, uh, we have winnowed it down to, uh, you know, six or seven at this point.
Speaker 5: Uh, we had a few drop out this week and so, uh, but it's not clear which of these remaining candidates, uh, would leave the race before super Tuesday or whether they all may be there. I think we have, I think we'd assume two things. Number one, senators, there's not leaving. [00:29:00] All right. And honestly, even if they can't win, they don't care. Sanderson has said he doesn't believe elections are so much about winning, but it's about ideas. He is going to take his idea. It. Plus, that's how most of these people aren't living. [inaudible] [inaudible] campaign contribution. So he didn't, he's not getting out. It doesn't matter. Well, yeah, let, let, let me just say, Senator Sanders is United States Senator. He draws [00:29:30] a salary from the Senate. He doesn't need to run [inaudible] to make a dollar. He made, he has a bleed. He has a committed idiot. Alright. I bet he's not going to not Bloomberg
Speaker 4: is not going to get out anytime soon. Good bet. Because both people get out because they don't have the money invested. 53 billion. I don't think he could make it. The question is D D after all, the people going to have delegates and probably somebody else's gotta be may [00:30:00] appeal or Senator Clover char is gonna try to stick around for a while longer. [inaudible] that'll reasonable analysis.
Speaker 5: Sure. I, I, I, as I said, we don't know which of these candidates, uh, is going to drop. We don't know if, for instance, uh, one candidate who had momentum for a week, whether that will be eclipsed by another candidate who takes that momentum or whether somehow two candidates can coexist, uh, you know, with, with, with momentum. [00:30:30] So we're, we're looking at a race that's still unfolding.
Speaker 4: So let's, let's back up this to use California because it's the big kohona Domo, all of them all [inaudible] so did the delegates. If you don't get to 15%, you get nothing. Is that the case?
Speaker 5: It's by CD and statewide. So it's, there's 53 districts. There's 54 contests.
Speaker 4: Right, right, right. Alright, so you guys are smart. Let me see if my translation is right. [00:31:00] You have statewide delegates and an audit. To qualify for those, you have to get 15% in the statewide vote. Yes, correct. Okay. Yeah. Within 54 congressional districts. Yeah. Delegates, in an order to qualify in each district, you need 15% yeah. So if I get it 14% in district 23 I get nothing. If I get 16 in district 24 I get delegates. Is that correct?
Speaker 5: That's correct. 53
Speaker 4: CDR [00:31:30] 53 I'll show it. 54 I stand corrected. Okay. Let's go to Texas artists statewide. Is there a 15% threshold in Texas
Speaker 5: statewide for the primary and then 15% in each of the state Senate districts? There's 31 Senator [inaudible]
Speaker 4: district 31 all right, so when you're watching there, are we off the top of my head? What percent of statewide as opposed to allocated by the districts? About a third is statewide at about a third. Okay, [00:32:00] so when you're watching election night, you watch the statewide total and whoever you pull in for, you show up. Want them to get above 15 for sure. I mean, as much as I could get it delegates, you a third did in each congressional district. You want your, your person, I'm not going to say guy, cause I, you know, is that your person [inaudible] get 15 or more. Yeah. All right. Texas is the state Senate district. I totally understand. Yep. You have enlightened me. I, I, I feel at peace and comfortable now. [00:32:30] Oh man, what a service you performed yet, bro. But, but again, when you look at that, Jeff, um, boy, you know, it was a, a famous California politician just who said money's
Speaker 2: the mother milk is the mother's milk of politics. But you look at California with those 53 districts out there, if you have money, you know, you can go in and, and, and, and make a big deal digitally or ads in Bakersfield. You don't have to just worry about LA and, and the, and the, and the Bay area. There's a tremendous, I mean, more than usual with this system. [00:33:00] Tremendous advantage in having lots of resources. And I can't, um, I mean, I can see mayor Peter Amy club, which are coming out of South Nevada and South Carolina. Man, it's hard to see how they compete, uh, in most of those days.
Speaker 5: Well, it's very expensive. There's 15 States voting on super Tuesday. We've mentioned California and Texas, but there's obviously a large number of additional States, not as large as those two, but still it all adds up. There is a lot [00:33:30] of media markets, uh, just in those States. And then of course in the other 13 States. And so it's a, it is a heavy pull financially. It's definitely a demanding,
Speaker 2: including ironically that day, Minnesota and Massachusetts, the home States of Amy Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren. Uh, but boy it is and Vermont and I ran. Right. Okay. All right. Sorry Bernie. I, you know, somehow and California is dumb. Stiers old state. That's right. Somehow I think of those 16 [00:34:00] delegates in Vermont, my money's on Bernie.
Speaker 5: Yes. I think he took all of them against Hillary. I don't think she broke threshold in 2016.
Speaker 4: I am starting to hear a little bit that star might surprise people somewhat in South Carolina. It are these people full of malarkey? Are there's some reason to believe he could do a little better than people think?
Speaker 5: No, I think, I think that's correct. What what has happened is throughout the fall Tom Stier was campaigning, uh, very [00:34:30] actively in both Nevada and South Carolina. He was running a full load of, of television advertising, digital advertising, hiring staff in South Carolina. Tom had over a hundred staffers, uh, by the end of the year. And what was really well done is that those staffers were nearly all African American and native South Carolinian. So these are people from their communities, uh, on Tom's staff [00:35:00] and rather than bringing in people from up North or out West who didn't know the state. And so, uh, he's built a very substantial organization also in Nevada and he has paid particular attention to outreach to African American and Latin X voters, uh, in both States. Obviously, uh, Latin X voters are more of a factor in Nevada. But, um, he's done his homework. He's been [00:35:30] working on the ground in those States. And so, uh, to me, it, it will be no surprise at all because I'm aware it, but I think to a lot of people who were focusing on Iowa.
Speaker 4: So, so what you're saying is me, me as a commentator, I would not make [inaudible] Oh, I would not necessarily make a fool of myself and just say, you know, if I had to, if I was making my [inaudible], you know, exotic bet, I would put star in it. You know, he might, he might be something, something to keep an eye on as we go into South Carolina, Nevada.
Speaker 5: Yeah, [00:36:00] no, you're right. And one other thing is his messaging, and Tom has been talking about the economy since he spent his career in PRI, in the private sector. Uh, he's been talking about growing the economy, having a middleclass tax cut for everyone, uh, for middle-class on, down in the lower income section, uh, at the same time as reversing the Trump tax cuts, uh, for the upper income. And so it's, it's a message that also resonates in Nevada, which has [00:36:30] no state income tax. And in South Carolina.
Speaker 2: W w w what Jeff can, he goes, assuming he does as well as, as, as you and James are talking about in South Carolina, which is you look at polls, a distinct possibility, can he compete with Mike Bloomberg's money on super Tuesday and then the next couple of weeks you have Michigan and Florida and Ohio. I mean, super Tuesday is expensive, but it doesn't stop.
Speaker 5: Yeah, well that's true. Listen, I have not personally looked into Tom Star's checkbook, but I, I believe [00:37:00] he has the resources. He is running a full clock right now in California. You know, the early vote is underway, uh, in that state and a lot of people don't talk about it. Uh, it was also a factor in 2016, by the way, the early vote, because California was an early state of super Tuesday state in 2008 but in 2016 it had moved back. So now it is returned as, as we've been talking about as a super Tuesday state, and that early vote begins a [00:37:30] month early. So they're voting right.
Speaker 4: So, so much March 3rd is a big date. That's super cutesy. All right. When is the next big date that we look for? Where are you going to have a [inaudible] [inaudible] delegate select?
Speaker 5: Well, that is a great question because this year we have a very different schedule than we've seen in the past. So we have this huge voting of 15 States on super Tuesday. One week later on March [00:38:00] 10th we have a number of States voting that have almost 10% of all the delegates in the country. And the week after that on the 17th, we have Arizona, Florida, Illinois, and Ohio, all voting and that, that's another 15% of the country. So when you take a pretty good bit here in a month, it's 15 days of voting from the third to the 17th is essentially a two over here.
Speaker 2: And over 50% of the delegates are [00:38:30] elected in that short period. And, and you mentioned, you know, the big ones on the, on the um, a T seven 17, but on the 10th you have Michigan and Missouri and Washington state.
Speaker 5: Yup. Mississippi. Yeah, absolutely. Yeah, no there. So what we're looking at is a sort of blitz of most of the country voting in a 15 day window that starts on super Tuesday. And so yeah, when that 15 days is over, everybody's going [00:39:00] to be able to look at the allocation of delegates to the candidates. And your question about what are the chances, you know that a candidate won't get to 51% I would say on March 18th if you haven't learned already, you'll probably have a pretty good idea.
Speaker 4: Yeah. And it's, it's, so, uh, most of these other States, the same version of a model of California and Texas where some of it goes to the, one of the statewide and then some, the rest is allocated by designated political [00:39:30] subdivision, be it congressional seat or state Senate seat or something else. Is that, is that the general model in the democratic party? It definitely,
Speaker 2: it's true in every state other than a caucus state and the Jeff, well it applies in the caucus States also. Yeah. So it's all, it's all going to be threshold and proportional representation.
Speaker 5: And by the way, let me say since Al mentioned the caucus States, one of the biggest changes we've had from 2008 when we had that really historic, uh, nomination fight between Hillary Clinton and Barack [00:40:00] Obama is there are far fewer caucus States today than we had at that time. And as you may remember, uh, president Obama won essentially all of the caucus States and by a margin that really was the national margin for his delegate lead.
Speaker 4: In effect, she actually re litigate 2008, but by doing, she actually got more boats, but they didn't do the caucus thing because Mark Penn, who was the strategist in [00:40:30] December, 2007 argued that California was wanting to take all state. Yeah, of course. It was no such thing. So let's forget about that for a second. Well, that's history and I was not in that campaign headquarters, so I cannot comment on what you're talking about. I understand. I wasn't in the three people who've told me who I trust and I know it's true.
Speaker 2: Yeah. We're, you know, we're talking about you've got to get 15% in every CD or state Senate and state wide, but, but what kind of calculation do you make, Jeff, [00:41:00] if you think I'm going to carry this district, is it possible to sit down and say, man, but I got to get, I don't know, 60%, I got a, you want to get the most votes you can, but is there kind of a uh, different levels of threshold?
Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah. I mean, you can look and say, well, what will it take to win one delegate and what will it take to win two delegates and, uh, in a very multi candidate field, if we have multiple candidates breaking threshold, uh, you know, it's going to be hard to get [00:41:30] the second delegate and I guarantee you it will be hard to get a third delegate in
Speaker 4: a district if we have several candidates breaking threshold. Most of the districts have maybe five delegates in five or six. Yeah. So it varies according to democratic voting strength, it can be as little as three and as high as, you know, 10 or 11. But basically there are around five or six most.
Speaker 2: So just hypothetically, if I, they're five, they're five delegates in a district and there are three candidates, two of [00:42:00] them get 20% uh, and I get 60% then they probably get one delegate a piece and I get three [inaudible].
Speaker 4: Yeah. Listen, if there is five delegates in a district, you need to get 15% which is the basic threshold to win your first delegate and you're going to have to get to about 30% to get a second delegate. And so in a multi, well nobody's gotten 30% yet, right? In Iowa, New Hampshire right now, obviously [00:42:30] if it's just two or three candidates competing, then you know, yes, a candidate will get 30% yeah. You know, the Carville's first rule of politics on election day, it has to add up to a hundred okay. It just can't, it's not going to end up 33 to 30 to 20 I can't. It's got, it's got to get you on election day. [inaudible] project was short primers and people going to do no, I said, and it'll snow good. It's gotta be a hundred I'll watch it die. It's not that it happens every time. [00:43:00] And you know what I mean? As you go through this and think about what you shed, man, Bernie has human resources in our words. He's got 15% of the people in a lot of places and star and Bloomberg have financial resources. They can compete in 53 different congressional districts. Aye [inaudible] that project forward, you know, may have Pete and sent a club char.
Speaker 4: [00:43:30] I think I have a little bit of a tougher time because they don't have [inaudible] political reached at Sanders had four for 15%. I don't think we can reach a lot more than that, but the 15th to Chet are the resources that our two billionaire candidateJ up. I think that's a fact. It'll look at it as we go forward. Yeah. And I don't think they're the same. By the way, I think mayor peed has built, uh, a financial fundraising organization [00:44:00] that's been pretty successful. I think Senator Klobuchar is a little bit newer, uh, in terms of establishing her traction in the race. So I think she probably has more work to do to, to build that fundraising and no time to do it and very little turtle time to do it. Right, Albert. Great. Let me ask you in Albert to react or something that are red. John B, Judas, I'll read everything. John the Judah says, I think he's smart ballast [00:44:30] [inaudible] even talking the Dima and this is no different. Tom was talking about the demise of Warren and he said something interesting. He said it would have had the Buddha judge managers and Buddha judge would have had to warn managers that Warren would have beat Buddha. Judge [inaudible].
Speaker 4: I don't necessarily disagree with that. I think her campaign started making so really kind of flawed decisions, if you will. In the basic premise of [00:45:00] bear campaign was we can't give Bernie any oxygen on the left when a truth and a Mattie isn't. When aunt CELTA, we interviewed her in the first poll when Warren was doing pretty good, she was a second choice of all Buddha judge voters. We even knew she was Sanders voted and I think that Warren campaign went into this election. Okay. What a flawed theory if you can tell me you just agree or whatever. But I've had both of you. Well, uh, I will say [00:45:30] this, I will say, uh, that uh, Senator Warren was very successful before she wasn't as successful, so I'm not sure, uh, you can criticize her original approach because Hey, it was, it was working for, I don't think like the original.
Speaker 4: Yeah, no, it's true. People are criticized in is it made [inaudible] decision [inaudible] engage [inaudible] and not give any Bernie any oxygen on the left. And that that led to [00:46:00] single payer of which she would have said danced around but it hadn't totally embraced it. And then once she put out the [inaudible] the payment mechanism, she was stuck with it, you know, and it caused her to answer questions. The first thing that flashes in her mind is, I can't let Barney be any more liberal on meeting the question, which produces an answer. Like you'll be able to wrap the education secretary. I just think at a point there, there we had a case was fraud.
Speaker 2: Jeff am I, you know, you've, you've been [00:46:30] terrific. We appreciate it. But let me just say you, you think it's perfectly possible that, let me put it this way. By March 18th, we will have a pretty good idea as to whether one person as a pretty good pathway, I don't have it sewed up or whether there is a greater likelihood than ever that we'll have a, whatever we call it, a broker convention, a contested convention in Milwaukee.
Speaker 4: Yeah, for sure. I do think we'll have a, an idea by then how many superdelegates today there [00:47:00] are over 700. And they only get to vote in the second round. Exactly. Going to be the whole ball of wax if, if there's no a winner on the first round. But keep in mind, just because someone has not earned 51% of the pledge delegates on their own, that doesn't mean they can't combine with another candidate to achieve 51% and how that will unfold. Of course, we've never seen that in modern times. Right, right.
Speaker 2: Jeff Berman, [00:47:30] uh,
Speaker 4: you know, someday, uh, I'm going to publish, you may have published already. We by accident got a copy of your projection of every, uh, caucus in primary and early February of 2008 through June six. And I got to tell you, when you go back and look at it now, you were 98% accurate, which is one hell of a batting average. So, uh, there's a reason that you're a legend and I can't you, I think you've, I know you have educated me, James, and I think you would agree that we both been educated. [00:48:00] I was dying to do, to show that push for it because at the end of the day, the, the, the coin of the realm, there's delegates. Okay. And I think we learned a lot, I think by [inaudible] March 18th at five 38, probability number four, whatever it is, there's going to be way above 50.
Speaker 2: Yeah. Jeff Berman. Uh, thank you so much for being with us. And, uh, as this thing goes on, uh, we hope we can get you back because I don't think your expertise, [00:48:30] uh, was exhausted today. I think it's going to be even more in demand as we, uh, proceed these next three or four weeks. Thanks. An awful hell. Happy. Happy to do it today. And to return. And I, I've got to tell you, I'm a watch Tom star. Yeah. Keep an eye on him and I believe that Carolina and Nevada and Nevada, right? Exactly. Here we come. All right. Thank you.
Speaker 1: [inaudible]
Speaker 2: James, we have, you know, [00:49:00] our highlight now, Christie numbers, Harvey, who's gonna toss a couple numbers at us. Uh, so, uh, be prepared. Get your calculator out, James, go ahead. All right.
Speaker 6: Yeah, you're not going to need much of a calculator today. I'm just going to warn you guys at the top. I'm on so much DayQuil right now that I can barely see straight, but I was able to do a little bit of math, so this could be woo, a little bit of a wild ride, but I've got two numbers for you today. Um, the first number is 2 trillion. Uh, 2 trillion is [00:49:30] the amount of cuts to safety net and student loan programs in the white house, new budget proposal. Uh, this proposal which came out on Monday is just devastating. Almost all of these cuts come in programs that help the poor. For example, 15% cut for funding for the department of housing and urban development, getting rid of funding for rental assistance for low income people. One that's close to my heart. It's cutting the education department's funding for work study programs, allowing [00:50:00] people without a ton of money to pay their way through college. It cuts food stamps, it cups, environmental protect, environmental protections. And, and, and so, James, I feel like I always give my angry questions to you, but here's my first question. This budget, it's going to cut all of these programs that help people climb out of poverty and that invest in this country and in our ability to be smart and healthy and,
Speaker 4: huh? Arthur, they this short sighted that [00:50:30] we're cutting investments in us. This is a time [inaudible] a political politics. One Oh one from James Coalville. Okay. And it's stiff. [inaudible] to choose to talk about one thing is not choose to talk about another thing. All right? And these things are horrific. The headline is Trump flies to Davos, tells people that he gave $1 trillion worth of tax cards too, that he's going to cut Medicare after [00:51:00] the election. You don't need anything else. This is supplemental stock. It is very good because if they try to answer, you can hit them back. A good campaign would take this kind of stuff and it went [inaudible] hurt somebody. They would targeted to that congressional district or that state or anything. But the big overreaching message. Okay, with a visual, not a, not a shot, is him standing and Davos tele knows people that he has gone to go back [00:51:30] to the United States and cut Medicare of the people that voted for him.
Speaker 4: And I don't know why, why we can't do that and this other stuff is golden. We should keep it, we should correlate it. We should digest it. We should do everything with it. But the democratic party and candidates [inaudible], MSNBC and CNN, who everybody it is then York times that that that the entire thing. Instead of covering all this ancillary shit [00:52:00] they should say to president of the United States after pro and they go 16,000 lives and no one cares about other than us. He said he wouldn't do it. He went to Davos and he said he would. That matters to people that matters profoundly to people. In addition to my pets. At the same time, telling people in the United States he was going to cut Medicaid. One of the great unknown [inaudible] under appreciated things in American public opinion is okay. Medicaid is just as popular as Medicare [00:52:30] in for the life of me.
Speaker 4: I urge these democratic candidates. I urge these democratic groups. I urge the people in the press. I urge everybody, Davos, Medicare eight, that hard. [inaudible] that's my, that's my general view. [inaudible] all of this, the supplemental heating assistance [inaudible] the schools that he's done, of course they're gonna do everything they can to hurt poor people. [inaudible] help rich people. They're doing everything they can to hurt [00:53:00] middle-class people. [inaudible] or anybody, anybody that is trying to make it in this role gets kicked in the teeth. Anybody that has already had had it made in the world, it's a helping hand. That's what this is about. That's what it is. It's that simple. Well, I just hope when they, when they talk about this that you told me there's other stuff [inaudible] you got personalize it. I mean, it's not enough to say they're doing awful things, but there are stories out there, there's out there
Speaker 2: that really do break your heart. And if they do that effectively, [00:53:30] uh, that's much better than just a a, I mean, we know what, what, how cruel. Uh, these policies are. What else you got for us, Harv?
Speaker 6: All right, I got one more and we're going to sports. Go into sports. Um, so the is 14, so 14, that's the number of teams that major league baseball is going to inject into post season baseball. The whole idea is to get a bunch more teams into the wild card process. It's super complicated. I don't quite understand it, but they're going to add more reality style fun. Uh, to the proceedings. [00:54:00] Now I am the girl with a giant sign in my office that says, keep baseball boring. I like boring baseball. Um, I can't figure this out. It's all extravaganza. Um, I'm, I'm not feeling it, but hunt, uh, I know that you sometimes differ from me on this. You, you like the, the hoopla. What do you think are you into this?
Speaker 2: Well, I think the rollout was really stupid. I think they did a poor job in the roll out. There's no question of that. I don't know. Uh, I mean they're doing to make money. That's what it's [00:54:30] all about. That's why the NFL expanded their playoffs as well. And, and, and, and there'll be, is doing that both for, uh, you know, get more teams in, uh, you know, the downside is there going to be teams that have below 500 records. They're going to be in the playoffs. Uh, you know, and that's kind of stupid. Uh, the one thing that's kind of quirky but I certain like is that if you're a top team, you get to pick which of the wildcard teams you want to play against. My guess is my guess is the GMs and managers won't like that, but I think that's good for the fans.
Speaker 2: Every [00:55:00] playoff system in every sport. Should it be designed for one thing to make the regular season relevant as you can. It didn't make the post season is exciting. You can't, if you and I and Albert who followed baseball closer to 95% of the people in United States don't understand what they doing den, it's not going to work. It's not going to work. You have to [inaudible]. If the rule is anything other than the best teams [00:55:30] happen, you know a real distinct advantage. He's like, well I don't know if anything is really wrong with the baseball playoffs. I mean I, I think of things that you need to fix. I, I liked the, the, the, the one card that where you make the tenant worth something. I, I, you know, people complain about them, you know, it maybe 154 gang season, but of course I've touched back on the money, but if it's too complicated for me to understand, I understand how to in say basketball tournament works. I understand how the college football playoff [00:56:00] works. I understand how the college world series works. I understand how [inaudible] everything works until they come up with this. And I mean, I know to try to make more money in, in a way to make more money is increased fan interest, which is good. Yeah. James, the fact the matter is, yeah, you're, you're right. But we're relics. They're going do it. The NFL
Speaker 4: did it. They, all they do is make more money. I know, but I don't mind the NFL, the NFL [00:56:30] used to have four teams, 14 there weren't a wildcard and now up to 12 pretty soon they'll be up to 18 okay. But yeah, I just wanted to tell you, yeah, we'll you, you'll, you'll learn these rules too. It'll take a while though. Same with me. So I did the Megan. It's one of these preseason baseball magazine. I was reading it in a plane and I just got sick. I think going to politics and for each club they had where you rank in attendance and where you rank it. Payroll. All right, and by far [00:57:00] the largest differential and attendance rank in payroll you'd be happy to know is Washington nationals. We are 10 no other team did this with 10 points, 10 places more than payroll, good war and attendance.
Speaker 4: Now I understand a team like Milwaukee that does really well. [inaudible] attendance doesn't do that well and payroll because they go walk into not that big of a market and stuff, but it's really impressive to see that. James, you're wandering down the Pacific coast highway. [00:57:30] I'm not at all. I'm not at all. We're 60th and attendance in six and payroll. If somebody can understand that that's not to buy it goes. I just want that is definitely quite, I just want to be first and first I play off. Want to understand the idea is we pay people more than a than our attendance. That is, that's easy concept to understand. That's not the most important thing is to be first in the playoffs, Harv. Right?
Speaker 6: Absolutely. And this time next year, you know, I'm going to be totally into the wild card thing and think that I was for it the [00:58:00] entire time, so you can just call me on it then, but for right now, uh, it's not my thing.
Speaker 2: You're terrific. Once again, a great show. Thank you. And thanks for Terry McAuliffe and Jeff Berman. You know, you don't do any better than that, James. Uh, let's hope that, well, the next week can't produce as many traumas we don't think is the last week, but we'll see. Uh, and thank you all for listening. And again, uh, I hope you will rate a review and subscribe, BP generous, uh, whether it's on Apple podcast, Spotify, Stitcher, or wherever [00:58:30] you listen to your podcast for James Carville. Thank you.
Speaker 1: [00:59:00] [inaudible] [00:59:30] [inaudible].